tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post1261712416329715689..comments2023-10-28T17:54:39.467-06:00Comments on The Golden Truth: Some Monday Observations...Dave in Denverhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03016238915167131989noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-65866765453094884442010-02-10T08:00:01.035-07:002010-02-10T08:00:01.035-07:00No question about that. It's not a matter of ...No question about that. It's not a matter of "IF" but of "WHEN"Dave in Denverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03016238915167131989noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-92182787710961324162010-02-10T06:56:07.202-07:002010-02-10T06:56:07.202-07:00I think one (monday)morning we will wake up and fi...I think one (monday)morning we will wake up and find gold and silver bullion gone to the moon.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-60404830201346144972010-02-10T05:48:21.264-07:002010-02-10T05:48:21.264-07:00Great analogies.Great analogies.Dave in Denverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03016238915167131989noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-39170534509416287382010-02-10T04:10:05.063-07:002010-02-10T04:10:05.063-07:00They call this the bicycle pump. It is called the...They call this the bicycle pump. It is called the bicycle pump because the only thing being put is hot air. The aim is to clean out the retail investors, do not listen to CNBC or MSSNBC look at the COT reports and do what the professionals do. The best bull to slaughter is a reatil bull. That is you and I.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-79164372650542838602010-02-09T15:03:15.382-07:002010-02-09T15:03:15.382-07:00dave i don't know about u, but watching rich d...dave i don't know about u, but watching rich dad poor dad, Kiyosaki pump gold is making me wana throw up and sell my gold stash!anliunoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-18625041842780559552010-02-09T03:18:45.893-07:002010-02-09T03:18:45.893-07:00Yo dood, Watch da metals ahoy, next week should be...Yo dood, Watch da metals ahoy, next week should be interesting. Longer than I've been in months and ready for quick & violent gains.Soro's Pet Monkeyhttp://www.republic.orgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-34269357452294802642010-02-08T21:48:07.823-07:002010-02-08T21:48:07.823-07:00That's a great question. The simple answer is...That's a great question. The simple answer is that the dollar was extremely oversold with extreme short interest and it was overdue for a technical bounce. Currencies tend to overshoot both to the upside and the downside. Look at July '08 when the dollar was on the verge of breaking to all-time lows and then proceeded to make a move over the next 9 months that took it from 72 to 90.<br /><br />The other answer to the question really has no one right answer. Of course on a fundamental basis the dollar is way overvalued. But relative to other currencies in the USDX index? Hard to say. Right now the perception is that the euro, yen and pound, the 3 largest weightings in the USDX are in bigger trouble than the dollar. I don't beleive that's the case but that's what the market is trading on right now. On the other hand, the commercials/banks are now record short the dollar and the large trader/specs are record long the dollar and record short the euro. Rest assured the commercial/banks will win that trade, which means the dollar may soon head back down.<br /><br />The other component is that the currency markets are highly manipulated and right now it's not in any of the large Treasury holder's interests to see the dollar fall precipitously. I think it's impossible to know just how much the Fed intervenes and how it intervenes in all the markets, especially the dollar and Treasuries, without getting full transparency. But I've read some great analysis that explains how interest rate derivatives, and I'm sure other OTC derivative structures, currency swaps, etc, are used to manipulate the Treasury and currency markets.<br /><br />Ultimately, my view is that we will reach a point in time when the Chinese and OPEC say "no more dollars - you must pay us in our currency or no trade." That's when the dollar will truly collapse.<br /><br />Hope that helps and I'm positive there are lot other components to answering the question.Dave in Denverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03016238915167131989noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-16313591799883583332010-02-08T20:52:45.327-07:002010-02-08T20:52:45.327-07:00Dave with all the talk about the fed surreptiously...Dave with all the talk about the fed surreptiously monetizing the treasury auctions, why haven't these actions disrupted the fx market... more specifically why hasn't the bottom fallen out for the usd?? This usd rally, regardless of the excuses, is un-belivable in the face of fiscal reality.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-57711066987924216072010-02-08T19:36:33.692-07:002010-02-08T19:36:33.692-07:00anliu: hard to say how this whole thing unfolds. ...anliu: hard to say how this whole thing unfolds. I disagree that a "true" bear market requires the dumping of stocks and the dollar. we could have hyperinflation which causes the dollar to tank hard and the stock market soar, until the dollar completely collapses, in which case the stock market would collapse.<br /><br />I guess if we get into a situation where the dollar is going zero and the stock market is going toward zero, then we might be more worried about a big war.Dave in Denverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03016238915167131989noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-4390408314568879822010-02-08T18:22:57.715-07:002010-02-08T18:22:57.715-07:00Dave I read a true bear market will be when peopl...Dave I read a true bear market will be when people are selling the usd and us stocks... My question is can we expect to see, say google, at say 10 bucks?!?! This is what John Williams is warning about a dumbing of us assets and the usd by the rest of the world. So do you think the stock makret will tank as the usd is tanking? I'm guessing investors at that point will feel the common shares will no longer be worth anything. Whats your take on this?anliunoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-30837706126979498532010-02-08T17:43:39.978-07:002010-02-08T17:43:39.978-07:00LMAO... you a grave-dancer? perish the thought.
B...LMAO... you a grave-dancer? perish the thought.<br /><br />BTW, that was me pulling into Tulving's vault with my forklift the other day.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-65303711250096044372010-02-08T17:39:44.939-07:002010-02-08T17:39:44.939-07:00I think Japan is going to dump US treasuries if th...I think Japan is going to dump US treasuries if the media here does not leave Toyota alone soon.EconomicDisconnecthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02802078645713106743noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-4976304450724290802010-02-08T16:55:35.725-07:002010-02-08T16:55:35.725-07:00And one more point, at some the countries that are...And one more point, at some the countries that are rolling their Treasury holdings on refunding auctions will, at some point, stop rolling and will expect to be paid out, thereby reducing their Treasury exposure. This is when they've decided that they no longer are interested in holding onto quickly depreciating U.S. dollars.Dave in Denverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03016238915167131989noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-1571005418746121752010-02-08T16:53:50.878-07:002010-02-08T16:53:50.878-07:00Anonymous: agree. but the relativity of the situ...Anonymous: agree. but the relativity of the situation is there is not as severe as it is here. that's what's so hilarious. technically the U.S. Government is insolvent, and it would have already collapsed if it the dollar wasn't the global reserve currency.Dave in Denverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03016238915167131989noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-84617395223888148812010-02-08T16:44:40.387-07:002010-02-08T16:44:40.387-07:00I think that Precious Metals will be up ina single...I think that Precious Metals will be up ina single day by more than 200% without advise<br /><br />I think of this like an elastic...boooomAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-16146652203903077472010-02-08T16:40:40.911-07:002010-02-08T16:40:40.911-07:00@gyc: I think the buyers run the whole spectrum f...@gyc: I think the buyers run the whole spectrum from individuals to hedge funds to even smaller local coin dealers who buy from Tulving when the Mint is out, since local coin dealers get rediculous mark-ups, especially on silver eagles.Dave in Denverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03016238915167131989noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-42129960952767725472010-02-08T16:19:19.925-07:002010-02-08T16:19:19.925-07:00Very interesting. Any ideas on who the big buyers...Very interesting. Any ideas on who the big buyers are of the Eagles?EconomicDisconnecthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02802078645713106743noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-8892924625793869512010-02-08T15:32:35.240-07:002010-02-08T15:32:35.240-07:00Its true Greece is small to the EU in comparison t...Its true Greece is small to the EU in comparison to say CA is to the USA... But this is what people were saying about the subprime fiasco, its the conatgio thats the issue here. If the EU does not handle the Greece situation correctly then this debt crisis could spread to other member states and break the EU down.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com