tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post7499076443080817881..comments2023-10-28T17:54:39.467-06:00Comments on The Golden Truth: It's Simple - Think Like A CriminalDave in Denverhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03016238915167131989noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-22180354341556920562012-05-16T22:05:29.947-06:002012-05-16T22:05:29.947-06:00I must admit, this is one of the most depressing p...I must admit, this is one of the most depressing postings I have read in a while. It looks like the decline is right on time. No wonder everyone wants to talk miners!Ol'FordTrkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01816157447390279473noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-78378127455947642642012-05-15T17:09:19.362-06:002012-05-15T17:09:19.362-06:00I hope you're correct about silver, just not m...I hope you're correct about silver, just not my cup of tea right now. Until I see juniors selling for less than their cash, I won't believe valuation or sentiment is as bad as 2008. That was shooting fish in a barrel. Go back and look at the prices of FSM, AG & NSU in 12/2008. You could put on absurdly low limit orders and they'd get filled because there was panic and no buyers. I don't think we're quite there.Purewaternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-60782052576885884102012-05-15T16:55:48.673-06:002012-05-15T16:55:48.673-06:00PW, the valuation of mining equities in relation t...PW, the valuation of mining equities in relation to the price of gold is lower than 2008. There are plenty of juniors that are not as low in price as in 2008, that is true. But I would argue sentiment is worse than in 2008 right now. A lot of us bought all the way down in 2008. Now no one is buying currently.<br /><br />There are no valid reasons for silver to not go higher. Silver is a currency, same as gold. Always has been. Read the constitution. It's in there as a currency. "Poor man's gold" effect on silver is happening big time, especially in India and China. <br /><br />Eventually we'll see at least a 16:1 gold/silver ratio, probably lower. So however high you think gold can go, divide that number by 16 and that's your target for silver. <br /><br />If this doesn't happen, then it means we're living in Mad Max/The Road.Dave in Denverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03016238915167131989noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-73091870241138309652012-05-15T16:39:39.619-06:002012-05-15T16:39:39.619-06:00As bad as the miners have been acting, I don't...As bad as the miners have been acting, I don't think we're anywhere near 2008 sentiment. Back then, I bought numerous miners for less than the cash on their balance sheet. Every single one proceeded to at least triple. Even the crappy uranium miners that turned out to be worthless. A few of them, the companies with high quality assets, went up several thousand % such as Nevsun which I bought for $.53. <br /><br />I encourage all the discouraged speculators out there to man-up and put on limit orders for your favorite, high-quality companies at 20% lower prices than you're currently seeing. If they hit your bid, repeat the process. Don't go overboard though, a little bit of these goes a long, long way. And I'd personally skew toward gold miners rather than silver, I think gold is a no-brainer to be much higher in 5 years, but I've seen good arguments against silver going higher.Purewaternoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-9230381486316273102012-05-15T14:37:20.044-06:002012-05-15T14:37:20.044-06:00None. But when the HUI plunged from 480 to 150 in ...None. But when the HUI plunged from 480 to 150 in 2008 it didn't make any sense either. The whole market is dominated by hedge fund flows/activity on a short term basis. Everything. It's even more pronounced in mining stocks because institutions own very little in the way of mining stocks. So the % of the mining stock market controlled by hedge funds is massive vs. all other sectors.<br /><br />That dynamic causes excessive swings in mining stocks. Today was just ridiculous. AUMN/ECU has sold off to the equivalent of 21 cents/share in old ECU. The last time ECU traded at 21 cents was in 2005 when it had very little proved up other than hope and dreams. Now ECU has 400 mm in 43-101 silver ounces, produces silver, throws off cash flow and has $32mm in cash on the balance sheet.<br /><br />Does that make sense?<br /><br />As long as you have dry gunpowder, there are going to be some seriously compelling, no-brainer mining stock plays once the next round of QE3 is rolled out...Dave in Denverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03016238915167131989noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-2707750862984970632012-05-15T14:36:16.055-06:002012-05-15T14:36:16.055-06:00This comment has been removed by the author.Dave in Denverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03016238915167131989noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-81541902325338230522012-05-15T13:55:35.247-06:002012-05-15T13:55:35.247-06:00So, I figured out that today's plunge puts the...So, I figured out that today's plunge puts the GDX where its low was on 2/5/2010 at $39.30. Amazingly, though, the GLD that day made a low at $105. Today, the GLD is down a touch below $150. So, while the GLD has risen 45% from the February 2010 low, the miners have gone nowhere.<br /><br />Is there any LOGICAL reason this makes sense, Dave?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-89616929751072139812012-05-15T13:14:27.835-06:002012-05-15T13:14:27.835-06:00I do my best to try to approach investing with as ...I do my best to try to approach investing with as little emotion as possible. Being a poker player I think that comes much easier to myself than others. I have been waiting for a down move to buy some of these stocks and now that it's here I find myself starting to second guess my strategy. Had to shake that thinking off and remind myself nothing has changed in the world. In fact we are in worse shape as non of the structural problems of our economy have been fixed and the debt is ever larger and growing more rapidly. Ultimately I see no way out for the Fed except to monetize. I hope my patience pays off as I have been sitting on a good bit of cash for many months now and I have started putting it to work now. <br /><br />Goodluck Dave & appreciate all your hard work and thoughts on the blog!JDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03706124434369024650noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-85692477466883566752012-05-15T13:07:19.032-06:002012-05-15T13:07:19.032-06:00Get in line behind me on that. The babies are bei...Get in line behind me on that. The babies are being thrown out with the bath water. This could get very ugly. ALL of the markets. If the Fed doesn't unleash QE3 soon, we're going to see the Dow collapse down to 6,600 again.Dave in Denverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03016238915167131989noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-23725180755753002212012-05-15T12:53:06.129-06:002012-05-15T12:53:06.129-06:00Talk about a bloodbath today. I have multiple mine...Talk about a bloodbath today. I have multiple miners down double digit % points. I continue to think that the miners offer the best value in the entire market. <br /><br />Snapped up another 4,000 shares of AUMN today & doubled my position in PPP. Looks like it's going to be a long summer.JDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03706124434369024650noreply@blogger.com