tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post8321563760974783780..comments2023-10-28T17:54:39.467-06:00Comments on The Golden Truth: An Economy That's Gone Off The CliffDave in Denverhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03016238915167131989noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-92055324225952102702012-04-30T20:58:50.234-06:002012-04-30T20:58:50.234-06:00Infinite growth, exponential population growth, fi...Infinite growth, exponential population growth, finite resources. No matter how you cut the mustard what is coming won't be a recession or a double dip or even a depression. By comparison these concepts will look quite pleasant. Economies will now start to move backwards, slowly at first. There will a few little stutters up and down and then a very rapid plunge to the bottom. The bottom will resemble a period in time before the dark ages started with the same population levels (or less).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-16621620981126924902012-02-15T11:34:51.371-07:002012-02-15T11:34:51.371-07:00even if it goes to $1000, still not buying paper s...even if it goes to $1000, still not buying paper shares of apple...no thanks to paper gains, sticking to physical gold/silver.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-80697558603019260022012-02-15T07:46:01.857-07:002012-02-15T07:46:01.857-07:00THanks Walter. Only problem with google is it'...THanks Walter. Only problem with google is it's going to be a huge goldmine of data-tracking on everyone for the Govt...Big Brother IS watching, baby.Dave in Denverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03016238915167131989noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-65392351653575282292012-02-15T05:57:35.783-07:002012-02-15T05:57:35.783-07:00Dave, the chart you couldn't remember where yo...Dave, the chart you couldn't remember where you got it - it's from Morgan Stanley, but you probably found it at ZH:<br />http://www.zerohedge.com/news/stock-ramp-just-more-deja-vu-insanity-warns-morgan-stanley<br /><br />Courtesy of -who else- Google, no one really needs to remember anything anymore [ahem...]: to re-find wherever you originally found an image, just go to google, click Images (upper left), and now here's the trick: click the small camera-icon just within the left boundary of the search field - and presto: you can then either upload or paste-in the image you're trying to source. Like most things google, this works amazingly well: usually locations and even different sizes of the image you're looking for show up in droves...WalterWnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-16254109207759612702012-02-14T20:27:31.792-07:002012-02-14T20:27:31.792-07:00LOL. Thanks for the feedback. I really appreciat...LOL. Thanks for the feedback. I really appreciate it. I'm actually glad someone alerted to the mistake in doing AAPL's p/e. That was sloppy work on my part. But the gasoline guy was ridiculous. There's no question the economy has been in a real inflation-adjusted decline since 2006 and the gasoline consumption is a perfect signal.Dave in Denverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03016238915167131989noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-90486970471105441922012-02-14T20:20:57.974-07:002012-02-14T20:20:57.974-07:00Honestly Dave, I really appreciate you putting up ...Honestly Dave, I really appreciate you putting up with all these putzes who quibble with your posts. It's like they can't perceive anything you are saying. Perhaps they are members of Obama's truth teams? Seriously, let's waste your time about the exact gas consumption metrics used...let's fact check some free thoughts you post about Apple...lets be a pm investor and quibble over the point that pms bottomed in the fall of '08.<br /><br />Me? I am free to dismiss or agree with you on my own. Enough said. Too busy now as I gotta find some E65 so my truck can get 7 mpg.<br /><br />Thanks again for this blog.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-6826670021114967342012-02-14T16:39:57.331-07:002012-02-14T16:39:57.331-07:00I agree with your assessment. Buying AAPL (or any...I agree with your assessment. Buying AAPL (or any other asset) after a parabolic move like that is suicide. I will buy when it hits about 250.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-27497081772615410552012-02-14T16:03:02.999-07:002012-02-14T16:03:02.999-07:00Whoops. We're both wrong. Bottomed in Octobe...Whoops. We're both wrong. Bottomed in October. Thanks for pointing out the error though. I was tryng to multi-task today when I was writing this. I know a neuro-radiologist who is one of the best in Denver who says that "multitasking" efficiently is impossible for the brain to accomplish.Dave in Denverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03016238915167131989noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-56865667425369505952012-02-14T15:57:52.350-07:002012-02-14T15:57:52.350-07:00Hey dude, I already slammed Charles Hugh Smith las...Hey dude, I already slammed Charles Hugh Smith last week. His work sucks. I stopped reading him many years ago after I figured that out.<br /><br />Here's what you should know before you accept what you "told:"<br /><br />How much ethanol is in gasoline and how does it affect fuel economy?<br />The 138.50 billion gallons of gasoline (3.30 billion barrels) consumed in the United States in 2010 contained about 13.19 billion gallons of ethanol.<br /><br />Most of the gasoline now sold has some ethanol in it, but the exact amount in the gasoline you buy varies by region. In general it will not exceed 10% by volume. Gasoline with 10% ethanol content by volume is called E10 and with 15% ethanol is called E15. E85 is 85% ethanol and 15% gasoline.<br /><br />The energy content of ethanol is about 33% less than "pure" gasoline, although this varies depending on the amount of denaturant that is added to the ethanol. Thus, vehicle mileage may decrease by up to 3.3% when using E10.<br /><br />All gasoline vehicles can use E10, but currently you have to have a light-duty vehicle with a model year of 2001 or greater to use E15 and a "flex-fuel" vehicle to use gasoline with an ethanol content greater than E15. Most of the gasoline with more than 10% ethanol is sold in the Midwest.<br /><br />Here's the link: http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=27&t=4<br /><br />Thanks for your input but it's not clear to me if the "gasoline" number used in the chart would include "biofuels." The way the definition from the EIA website reads, the gallons number includes biofuels AND it makes for less energy-efficient output per gallon, which then indicate that sales of gasoline should increase, everything else being equal.<br /><br />There's no question that the total gasoline consumption as measure by the chart reflects a cratering economy AND that trend is getting worse over time.Dave in Denverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03016238915167131989noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-33738937870201334122012-02-14T15:53:02.855-07:002012-02-14T15:53:02.855-07:00Gold bottomed in November 2008 not AugustGold bottomed in November 2008 not AugustAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-45056406392887053732012-02-14T15:10:11.687-07:002012-02-14T15:10:11.687-07:00FEB 14th Judge Napolitano: Final Word After Being ...FEB 14th Judge Napolitano: Final Word After Being Fired on FOX NEWS Last Episode of Freedom<br /><br />http://sgtreport.com/2012/02/feb-14th-judge-napolitano-final-word-after-being-fired-on-fox-news-last-episode-of-freedom/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-7724257659277717752012-02-14T14:58:12.014-07:002012-02-14T14:58:12.014-07:00Hey Dave, I am sick of seeing the Refinery Chart a...Hey Dave, I am sick of seeing the Refinery Chart and all the over extended assumptions on the implications. Your Buddy Charles Smith was inferring demand was had dropped 40% from this chart. Hold on...yes demand is down maybe up to 5% but this refiners chart excludes the obvious gasoline and diesel imports which have dropped back to 2005 levels but still remain 2x the 2000 rate.<br />The biggest contributor to the drop is BIOFUELS. I was recently told the gasoline in my market was up to 25% ethanol and soy oil. Natural gas liquids are also in the mix. Hmmm even though those have much less energy per unit that oil based fuel they are still replacing a bunch of petroleum. The much disparaged EIA has a lot of statistics and is worth investigating from time to time<br /><br />Best Kansas Crude<br /><br />http://205.254.135.24/dnav/pet/pet_move_wkly_dc_NUS-Z00_mbblpd_w.htmAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-2724543831674176762012-02-14T14:42:42.420-07:002012-02-14T14:42:42.420-07:00I agree with your conclusions .
In addition AAPL h...I agree with your conclusions .<br />In addition AAPL has consumer products that are luxury items to the majority of the world's population .<br />They are also sought after by mainly young people with discretionary spending .<br />The Global economy is being set up by politicians for a long term austerity period while the FED reserve is trying to create inflation .<br />The resulting battle looks to me a sure winner for deflation which will squash demand for luxury items .Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-6673032301313880382012-02-14T12:48:11.614-07:002012-02-14T12:48:11.614-07:00More like "Patience of Gandhi"....LOL
It...More like "Patience of Gandhi"....LOL<br />It's been the worst I ever seen it over the past nine years. The moves in gold and silver, or should I say the reactions from it in the miners are something now. I can see that the PTP are getting some big bang for using much smaller bucks in these moves lately, can you say "investor gun shy". You would think most investing in these miners think that gold and silver are going back under a 1000/15 into next year. <br />I'm sitting tight and trying to be right, but feeling more like up tight and out of sight....LOL.<br />Thanks Dave for all the info each week.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-13831316697869713652012-02-14T11:50:50.221-07:002012-02-14T11:50:50.221-07:00Patience. I love all the negative sentiment surro...Patience. I love all the negative sentiment surrounding the mining stocks. Ultimatle contrarian indicator. Sit tight and be right.Dave in Denverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03016238915167131989noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-12912144553786921492012-02-14T11:30:34.615-07:002012-02-14T11:30:34.615-07:00wonderful to see that the GDX is consistently the ...wonderful to see that the GDX is consistently the worst performer relative to other main "index" even the financial.<br /><br />I am starting to wonder who the sheeple actually are? And who is leading whom up the garden path? <br /><br />On the topic of your AAPL - well one has to realize when one of your miners actually came out with much better results which blew estimates out the water and it goes nowhere but down.<br /><br />During a time such as we have that is the reason I bought Gold.<br /><br />And Embry - his consistent blah blah about the invisible hand - so why not the bulls have an invisible hand. It really just shows you that the precious metal community at the end of the day is very very DEPENDANT AND RELIANT on the actual people making investment decisions.<br /><br />Pathetic the bulls - they are the ones all fully invested already no one to take over.<br /><br />Its when you consistently talk about this stuff we "will be selling to the sheeple" - what do you think.<br /><br />And most precious metal people aren't really investors anyway - all just traders.<br /><br />All bullshit.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-4890135569875261112012-02-14T10:47:13.530-07:002012-02-14T10:47:13.530-07:00Yer right. I re-did my numbers and i get 14 as we...Yer right. I re-did my numbers and i get 14 as well. i can't remember where i got the 35 but its wrong. thanksDave in Denverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03016238915167131989noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7982981413278241287.post-70142157728221137822012-02-14T10:23:23.546-07:002012-02-14T10:23:23.546-07:00Just curious, where are you getting a trailing PE ...Just curious, where are you getting a trailing PE of 35? Morningstar & Yahoo both have it at 14.Purewaternoreply@blogger.com