Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Here Is Why Dollar Bulls Are Wrong

and why Dennis Gartman will end up looking like an idiot for promoting getting long the U.S. dollar. The big Wall Street banks have accumulated a record short position in the U.S. dollar - the chart is courtesy of the erudite and savy Trader Dan Norcini at http://www.jsmineset.com/:

The red line represents the big Wall Street banks and the massive size of their bet against the U.S. Dollar, the black line represents the Dennis Gartmans of the world and the institutions who are betting against the big banks; the blue line represents the small-fries who robotically trade based on what they hear on CNBC...the small fries and large funds will get fried once again by Wall Street:

US-Dollar-Chart-COT-as-of12-29-2009 -

If you follow the real money, you might make some of your own.  If you listen to the shills on CNBC, you are guaranteed to end up waiting in line for Government entitlements.

9 comments:

  1. Gartman is actually only "long" the Dollar via shorting the Euro, Pound and Yen in spreads he is long Gold against...Gartman is also long the Canadian Dollar outright against the Dollar...I very much like your blog...facts when citing analysts are important though...I am a long time Gartman subscriber FYI...

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks for the feedback. Probably not a bad way to play gold but I think the dollar will go down against all of the above. Kudos to him being long the loonie - I like the Aussie too. It's still fun to take shots at him any way you add it up LOL

    ReplyDelete
  3. The other point to make is that when he gets on CNBC and promotes a bullish dollar trade, a lot of "small fries" will do that by getting long the dollar outright, as per the COT chart.

    ReplyDelete
  4. I still believe Gartman has no credibility because he is always bashing Gold and giving low-ball projections for Gold prices.

    Joe M.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Gartman's lack of credibility with me is his lack of knowledge and understanding of the gold market and yet he pumps himself up as an expert. I don't really know how he fares with the rest of his market calls, but with gold he is terrible and silver isn't even on the map for him.

    Gold went up 380% from 1/1/2000 to 12/31/2009. How did Gartman do?

    ReplyDelete
  6. So the big banks are now short the usd and gold uptill their necks, makes you wonder whats going on...

    ReplyDelete
  7. I was puzzled on th gold/silver action today. With all the info about currency issues and central bank problems (US seized Argentina's central bank holdings at the FED) I would have though a nice move up was in order.

    ReplyDelete
  8. the fx market is infinitely bigger than the gold market. they can use their short in the gold market to push around that market like today and make money on the short side and cap the market. when the dollar shits the bed, they'll make a lot more on that short than they lose by being short gold AND they continue to manipulate gold. that's what i think is going on.

    ReplyDelete
  9. @gyc: gold and silver we due for a pullback after their big run up since Jan 1. nothing goes straight up. the banks shorted a boatload of contracts yesterday - we'll see tomorrow if they covered a lot of those today.

    who knows, maybe gold spiked on Sunday nite because insiders knew about the Argentine thing a day ahead of time...i know one thing for sure, and that's whenever I'm expecting a big move up in gold, it usually drops a turd LOL. i've learned to operate w/out any day-to-day expectations. my expectation is that gold will go a LOT higher by May.

    ReplyDelete