Thursday, April 29, 2010

Gold: Look Out Above...

One very reliable directional indicator for the price of gold is The Privateer 5x3 point and figure chart, the one below goes back to 1985. I was in a lazy mood today and I think this chart pretty much speaks for itself. The P&F pattern is a double-top breakout and the odds are high that the price of gold will soon challenge the $-based all-time high, following right behind the persistent all-time highs for euro-gold that have been hit repeatedly over that past few weeks. Here's the source for this venerable chart. I am not a current subscriber to the The Privateer but was for several years: LINK

(click on chart to enlarge)

On another note, several people have remarked to me that it now appears, based on this week's action on the Comex, that some big money may be challenging the fraudulently massive short positions in gold and silver. Hard to say for sure, but in the face of increasingly aggressive attempts by the likes of JPM and HSBC to beat down the price of gold and silver, especially silver, the futures have been rebounding sharply almost every day. I'm not sure I would want to be short the precious metals market right now...


  1. they probably listened to andrew macguire's interview about non-westerns traders that are going to blow up the comex market have to be certain the shorts are naked.

  2. Gld up 1% and Phys down on the day. I have both and phys has been a major disappointment. you rage on and on about gld but phys looks like the rip off.

  3. Dave, since u'r in a lazy mood, here is something to get u'r blood boiling:
    [Miss him? Bush's reputation might be ready for a rebound]

  4. I hated Bush - I hate Obama more. At least with Bush we knew we were getting fraud and corruption. Obama is a smooth-talker who many still believes has good intentions. But he's taking the anti-constitutional doors opened by Bush and running thru them.

  5. Hey Boogie - If you don't like PHYS then sell it. I would suggest and would bet that over a longer period of time than a couple months, PHYS will substantially outperform GLD.

    Investing requires more than going off 3 minute charts and 10 day moving averages.

    If the physical market ever does blow up the paper market, and if GLD has been leasing out its gold, GLD will drop by at least 50% in the face of gold spiking to the moon.

  6. Agreed Dave.

    In the last week, X has performed better than Y, so it MUST be better.

    Reminds me of a caller to a certain financial network, who said after thinking about it, he felt even more safe holding Silver Certificates with Scotiabank than getting physical.

    There are no staorage costs, assaying fees or monthly charges. Its a no-brainer right? He is right it is a no-brainer. Why do you think the bank has all those roadblocks in place to DISCOURAGE you from holding physical?

    PAL, it works unitl it doesn't.

  7. BNS has problems. This is coming directly from someone having problems getting delivery and it's not Harvey Organ.

    Check out the amount of silver and gold BNS has taken off the Comex this week: