Tuesday, June 1, 2010
This chart shows the annual Federal spending surplus/deficit. I'm still waiting for someone to explain to me how the Government can possibly stop the freefall pattern in this chart. Cut entitlements and defense spending back 50% each? We would still be in deficit spending. Raise taxes? That's the last thing that needs to happen if the Government at all wants to try and stimulate any meaningful, "organic" economic growth.
Please keep in mind that the numbers behind the chart represent ONLY "on-budget" spending items. It does not include the 100's of billions being spent to keep FNM, FRE, FHA, GNMA, FDIC, GM, GMAC, unemployment claims loans to States ($38 billion so far) etc alive. Obama said he was going to put the expenditures in "the war on terror" back on budget, but I have not read any references to him doing that. In other words, the REAL deficit spending number is more like $2.5-3 trillion this year. We'll know at year-end when we see the year-over-year increase in outstanding Treasury debt exactly what the real deficit spending number is.
Here's one scenario that would take gold to $15,000/oz: the world demands a gold-backed reserve currency; the U.S. reveals and prooves to everyone that it still has 8100 tonnes of unencumbered gold sitting in "deep storage" at West Point and in other Federal depositories; the U.S. then revalues the price of gold up to $15,000, which would be the price level required to restore the full gold backing of all outstanding Treasury debt, per Bretton Woods. My bet is that there will be another world war before that scenario plays out (nothing like a good old fashioned war to get the economies of the world jump-started and people employed).
BP update: Get out while it still has market value. As one who rode Enron short from the low $40's to $10, this situation and the chart pattern is eerily similar. This disaster is way worse than BP and the Obama people are revealing, if they even know just how bad it is, and the impending tropical storm/hurricane season will have the effect of throwing "gasoline" on this "inferno." This is one for the ages and so far Obama's handling of the matter makes Bush's handling of Katrina look brilliant.
Posted by Dave in Denver at 1:47 PM