The Golden Truth: Retail Sales Report Not As Ebullient As Reported

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Retail Sales Report Not As Ebullient As Reported

August retail sales were reported to be .4% above the July metric. However, July's number was revised down, making whatever increase in August there was from back-to-school buying appear to be more significant arithmetically in the headline than the overall nominal increase month to month.

In addition, as Bloomberg reports, 17 States engaged in "no sales tax holidays" during August. As we have seen with Government subsidized sales programs in autos and housing, all this does is "pull" future sales into the present, creating large drops in sales in subsequent months.

As per one of my earlier posts, a recent survey of the population indicates that over 2/3's of the country sees worse economic conditions going forward and over 75% plan to cut back on holiday spending. Programs like "sales tax holidays" will likely exacerbate this future reduction in spending.

11 comments:

U-6Tuesday, 14 September, 2010
Dave, can you explain this?

"18. I’m sorry to say, but the gold price is in the hands of the banksters and Tim “the terminator” Geithner, head of the Treasury. It’s not about the comex or the LBMA. The Govt, Treasury, and Central Bank all want gold higher in price, way higher. So, guess where the price of gold IS going?

19. Correct. WAY HIGHER."

That's Stewart Thomson.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_091410.html

Everything I know says that the government wants to *suppress* the gold price.

And by the way, thanks for the best gold blog out there.
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Dave in DenverTuesday, 14 September, 2010
Thanks for the compliment U-6! I appreciate it.

Thomson's view of the end game is that the Govt will ulitmately revalue the price of gold by an amount that's large enough to re-instate the gold backing of the Treasury debt. Only before that happens the Treasury market will collapse and the banks will buy all the Treasury bonds being puked up by the public at 50-70 cents on the dollar.

The problem I have with ST's view is that he assumes that the U.S. Treasury owns AND possesses the 8100 tonnes of gold that it has been reporting since the last official independent audit back in like 1954 or 1955.

I do not believe that gold is there. If it's been mostly leased out, at what price could it be repurchased by the bullion banks and physically returned to the Treasury?

But that's why he says the Govt is in control of the price. Another aspect he overlooks is that the Chinese will have a huge say in the future price of gold. I believe the Chinese will ultimately prove out to be the largest holder of actual physical gold and will roll out a gold-backed currency.

And let me ask you this, would the world accept a U.S. gold-backed currency without first seeing proof that the U.S. owns and possesses every ounce of that 8100 tonnes? No way.
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AnonymousTuesday, 14 September, 2010
Black-Eagle-Trust

US has a lot more gold than 8100 tonnes...
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HopiumTuesday, 14 September, 2010
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/09/just-another-hyperinflation-post-part-3.html

Last of a great series.
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Dave in DenverTuesday, 14 September, 2010
Anonymous. Good luck if you believe that. Explain to me why the U.S. won't allow its gold to be independently audited. We know for a fact that Nixon closed the gold window because de Gaulle was about to start a run on the gold by cashing in U.S. debt in exchange for gold as per Bretton Woods. The U.S. didn't have enough.

Sorry, you go look in the U.S. gold cupboard you'll find it to be in the same condition as Old Mother Hubbard's cupboard.
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BillTuesday, 14 September, 2010
US has a lot more gold than 8100 tonnes...

--------------

Ok then why is it such a States secret...Produce or shut up that is my motto.

I will go out on a limb here and say, since Nixon killed the Gold standard, our Gold, the Countries Gold has been pilferaged like every other sector in These United States by the Banker Barron's.

Absorb this " Your on your own " best to sit back learn and prepare, never mind this silly talk of " The United States has more than 8000 tonnes of Gold " more like an 8000 ton elephant and his name his " DEBT "
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BillTuesday, 14 September, 2010
Hey Dave surely this Market is for real..../snark/

Someone ran AXAHY (AXA) up over 17% real fast today.........."pump then dump".........

Check out this chart:

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/AXAHY

All the more reason I refuse to play...dam strait I am buying metals.
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AnonymousTuesday, 14 September, 2010
Dave, how do you KNOW that the operation Black Eagle hasn't been succsessful in bringing that gold to the US?
Conspiracy or not conspiracy,nobody knows EXACTLY imo.
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AnonymousTuesday, 14 September, 2010
BTW Jim Rickards is kind of an insider and one of his suggestions is to devalue the $ against Au. Why is he so sure FK still has the gold? I would not say this clever guy is some sort of a naive douchebag.Who's book is he talking?
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Joe KernanTuesday, 14 September, 2010
If the operation Black Eagle was for real, that gold would have gone into private hands in exchange for fiat to fund black ops IMO
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AnonymousWednesday, 15 September, 2010
Oops - here we go - this could be only the start....

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/5/20100915/tuk-terror-group-in-warning-to-criminal-45dbed5.html
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Add comment

Why Gold?

Gold is the world's oldest currency. You exchange your fiat currency (dollars, euros, yen, yuan) into gold as an insurance policy against catastrophic Central Bank and Government policies which serve to destroy the value of fiat currencies and destroy democracy.

Gold can ONLY be considered an investment to the extent that it remains significantly and historically undervalued in relation to the fiat currencies against which its value is measured. Otherwise it remains the world's oldest currency and is completely free from the counterparty risk associated with currency by Government fiat (i.e. fiat currencies rely on a Government's "full faith and credit.")

Quote Of The Month Courtesy of "Jesse"

Unfortunately for Larry Summers, Ben Bernanke, and their friends at the BIS, they have not yet figured out how to print physical gold, silver, and other essential commodities, and the world is reaching the point where it might simply start ignoring the New York based markets with respect to essential commodities such as basic materials, oil, foodstuffs, and the like, as they become increasingly irrelevant, fraudulent, and Orwellian. And then where will the financial engineers be, except with no more excuses and no place to hide?

Here is the link to his entire commentary, well worth a read:

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/07/gold-daily-chart-shock-and-awe-for.html

Great Quote From Jim Rogers On Govt CPI Reporting

JR: I mean, we have inflation now. If you go to the shop, whether it’s groceries, or education or insurance or health care, prices are going up for everything. The government lies about it in the US. Some countries lie, many countries don’t: Australia, China, India and Norway. Many countries don’t lie about it and acknowledge that we have inflation. Others lie about it, the UK and the US, but if you go shopping you know prices are up.

Q: Are you saying that the American Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is a lie?

JR: In my opinion, yes, of course it is. Have you looked at it? They’ve changed their accounting several times in the past few decades. When housing was 20% to 25% of the CPI and housing was going up, they didn’t count it, saying rents weren’t going up, and then when home prices started going down, they counted it. It’s the same with many things. It’s staggering some of the tortuous reasoning that the BLS has used over the past 25 or 30 years. When the price of gasoline goes up, they say it’s not really going up because it’s better gasoline, better quality, therefore you’re getting more for your money. I mean, it’s endless, the stuff that they say and for some reason people sit there, although more and more people are catching on, and accept what the government says.

source: www.clusterstock.com

Quote of the Week

"The primary function of a Central Bank is to engage in the massive transfer of wealth from the middle class to the wealthy elite. The Federal Reserve was set up to do this with the blessing and support of Congress." - Dave in Denver

If you refuse to believe the above, please read "The Creature From Jekyll Island: A Second Look at the Federal Reserve" by G. Edward Griffin and then explain to me why the Senate voted down the Vitter Amendment and Congress refuses to pass a law requiring a full audit of the Fed, even though the Fed is using taxpayer-backed money to bailout Wall Street and Europe.