Thursday, September 22, 2011

Well, What Now?

Several people have asked me why gold didn't hold its own or move higher in a "flight to safety" when the market went into a swan-dive.   It's a good question and the best quick answer is to say that you can't look at any one intra-day timeframe comparison of anything and think that that's the way it is.  In fact, when a broad market makes a big move one way or the other, typically there will short term correlation with that move in every market.  The simplest explanation for that is that hedge funds tend to drive market direction on a short term basis because of the way their computer models are programmed to move money in and out of markets.  That's just the way it is.  Typically hedge funds will blindly sell anything that's not nailed to the floor on days when there's a sharp sell-off in the stock market and move into Treasuries.  And today everything is down except inverse ETF's and Treasuries LOL.

But there's also another explanation for today's response in the gold/silver markets.  If you are ignorant or naive enough to believe that the Fed/Govt does not intervene in or manipulate the markets, especially the dollar anti-christ gold market, you can go back reading to Mish or Denninger or Fleckenstein.   BUT, if you have access and can pull up an intra-day trading chart of gold and silver futures, you will note that a cliff-dive in silver was initiated around 2:30 a.m. Denver time, which coincides with when Honk Kong and most of Asia closes.  Since Hong Kong primarily deals in the physical gold/silver markets, we can only conclude that an avalanche of paper silver was unloaded in London as soon as the highly supportive physical buying markets were closed.  Ditto for gold.  As most of you know, typically the anglo bullion banks, when they want to try and inflict damage on the metals, begin their paper dumping operation in London and continue in NYC at the 6:20 a.m. (Denver time) Comex open.  And of course my charts show another selling waterfall occurred leading up to, and inclusive of, the Comex open.

From this we can conclude that the big sell-off in gold was initiated by the traditional paper futures players, the bullion banks like JP Morgan, Baclays and Goldman Sachs.   This also serves to trigger the moving average sell-stop orders programmed into big hedge fund black box trading computers per my first paragraph.  I'm 100% sure this is why gold and silver sold off hard with the markets in general.

So what happens from here?   I dunno - who's John Galt?  What I do know is that going back to that day on May 6, 2010, when the Dow plunged 1000 points intra-day, gold/silver/mining stocks actually started to stage a huge rally when the Dow made the last 500 points or so of that plunge.  I also believe that the Fed would like to try and get the price of gold and silver a lot lower before it inevitably rolls out more QE.  Remember, in our system of fiat currencies, when gold moves sharply higher, it's our best warning indicator that the system is failing.  If everyone starts to move into gold because of this, all of the lies that have been promoted by the Fed and our Government over the last 40 years (and longer) will come of the closest in one big horror show.  Can the Fed accomplish this?  I doubt they can given the massive ongoing transfer of fiat currency into physical metal going on in the eastern hemisphere.

My best advice with regard to the metals and mining stocks would be to follow Jesse Livermore's best advice, which is to "sit tight and be right."  If you have been waiting on the sidelines for an opportunity to double-down or add to positions, now would be a good time to start doing that.  Don't forget, all of the variables that are driving capital into the precious metals are getting stronger by the day.  I don't how much  they can manipulate the metals prices lower, especially with the well-documented massive physical accumulation going on in India, Asia and now the Middle East, but I do know that at some point between now and 6 months or a year from now that gold and silver will substantially higher and those who own a lot of physical gold and silver will be very thankful that they do.


  1. Financial Warfare

    As all of you know, I think it is nearly impossible to make money in this market (if you want to call it that) unless you assume all things are gamed and manipulated. I think that if you are under the assumption that there is a free market and that there are rules when it comes to the government, the banks (Central and TBTF) then you can’t succeed because you are operating on an entirely false macro assumption. August absolutely scared the living daylights of the central planners and all of us in the “fight the Fed” camp knew that they would have to pull something together to exact revenge on those that are betting against them. One of the other things that happened in August that scared the living daylights out of the central planners was the massive flow of fiat money into what was perceived to be a “hard” fiat currency – the Swiss Franc. This provided these guys with the perfect opportunity to launch a massive counteroffensive in what has clearly become a gigantic Financial War. In what was an extremely well planned and aggressive move, the cabal of Western Central bankers convinced the Swiss to make the incredible announcement that they would print unlimited Francs to peg the currency at 1.20 to the dying euro.

    You have to hand it to these guys. The move was a stroke of central planning genius. Not only did they destroy people with major long Franc positions versus virtually any other currency (the Franc went down 25% versus the dollar in a one month period and 20% versus the euro) which was a way for the central planners to extract a pound of flesh from those betting against them, but it also was just as much if not more so directed at the gold market. Let me explain. Anyone with a large long franc position also likely has a long gold position as they are (rather were) essentially the same macro bet. Such a massive move in a currency such as the franc would have been so unexpected and such an outlier event that it would have wrecked severe havoc on many portfolios. The central planners knew this and they used it to their advantage to stop gold in its tracks as it was headed to $2,000/oz and beyond. This was no coincidence. It was financial warfare. You MUST know your enemy to survive and win the war because the central planners can win battles but not the war.

  2. I'm going to respectfully disagree on this one.

    I don't think you have to go the shadowy-banker route.

    Many observers expected a drop in PM prices. Hedge funds have historically low cash reserves. On a dip, to meet liquidations, where do they go? The assets that have done the best. They park cash in gold for the same reason we do--to preserve purchasing power against declining fiat. However, when a market starts to panic, the need to survive until the next battle overcomes prudent long-term asset management. Thus, they dump the paper PMs. But thanks to this idiocy, we can dollar-cost into more phyzz.

  3. I'd say it's a little of both David. Yes, there is a concerted effort to push down paper metals but there likely was quite a few margin calls today and those folks had to sell whatever was working. Bottom line is all the reasons why the metals have moved up in the past few years are still in place and in most cases are worse now. This is an excellent buying opportunity for everyone to convert more fiat into gold/silver/2nd amendment paraphernalia. In the end, paper prices don't matter, physical possession does.

  4. You know, the more I think about it the more I realize I was wrong in my post above. Consider it retracted.

  5. Dave;

    I have been a continual buyer of physical PM's for the past two years. I was warning people on my blog that a market crash is imminent as long ago as Jun and the end of QE2. Not wanting to over allocate my cash/PM model which is 50/50...I have been waiting for the collapse and to begin buying again, averaging down every time the market tanks 10-15%. Today I bought 20 oz sil, 1 gold krugger. I will wait to see if the market legs down some more, then I will rinse and repeat. I am prepared to do this four times or about 9 grand worth.

    I will make my case simply. Is the world bankrupt? Are debts spiraling out of control? Has anyone solved the problem? No. The fundamentals for wealth storage in PM's have not changed one bit. Until they do, buy with confidence. This time it is different. The world fiat systems are completely broken. The Keynesian experiment is over. Banks will try to manipulate paper prices down so that they can buy the physical on the cheap. Get there ahead of them.

  6. (Dave)

    LOL David. I was going to write a retort but decided not to. I believe all views need to be aired. However, it is a combo of bullion bank intervention plus hedge fund liquidation. Over the past 10 years that I've been doing this, the biggest hits to the pm's occur when the market conditions are ripe for the bullion banks to take a good shot at running the hedge fund sell stops. Today was a perfect set-up because everyone knew after they thought about that the markets would get hammered today. If you look a the charts, silver was actually pummelled first right after HK closed. That triggered an avalanche of black box hedge fund sell-stops. As the markets spiral downward, it exacerbates the affect on the paper pm's (futures) which are primarily what the hedge funds trade.

    I'm sure this won't last long. Watch Asia tonight to see if it looks like they are buying this. Also, India was not a buyer last night because the rupee got hammered. If the rupee even just stabilize, India will have a big buying presense tonight.

  7. What now?...lets all work 1 day in Chicago

    Man Works 1 Day for Chicago, Goes on Extended Leave for 15 Years, Gets $158,000 Annual Public Pension at Taxpayer Expense, Now Working for Hedge Fund

    A retired Chicago labor leader secured a $158,000 public pension — roughly five times greater than what a typical retired public-service worker in the Windy City receives — after being rehired for just one day of active duty on the city payroll, local news reports said.

    According to The Chicago Tribune, Dennis Gannon stands to collect approximately $5 million in city pension funds during his lifetime. He now draws the pension while working for a hedge fund, the Tribune reported.

    Gannon, former president of the Chicago Federation of Labor, was able to take a long leave from a city job to work for a union and then receive a city pension based on a high union salary. That arrangement is allowed under a state law signed by Gov. Jim Thompson on his last day in office in 1991, according to an investigation by the Tribune and WGN-TV.

    The change has enabled a couple dozen labor leaders to become potential millionaires.

  8. Relax- A very bad week for the markets,the Dow leading the parade downward 733pts in the last 4 days. Margin calls I would imagine are the flavor of the day or should i say the week. Gold $old off to meet those calls plain&simple. The U$ is less then $30b dollars from breaking there newly set Aug2nd debt limit of $14694T.The Euro zone is hangin together by a thread.Benokio's latest idea and new impotency was met by $eas of Red from disappointed markets cluing into the reality "A Recession I$ Here!
    Gold, could go as low as $1650,but as Arnie says I'LL Be Back.LOL!This here is a buying op for physical holdings.my2cents

  9. USA is bankrupt and about to collapse into 3rd world poverty.
    Make no mistake about it.

  10. Rumors of Paulson gld liquidation...these large concentrated positions by "academic insiders" were always a iffy proposition

    MEP Nigel Farage

  11. Finally, thousands are saying, I'm Mad As Hell And I'm Not Going To Take It Anymore. Perhaps with the physical outcry's from everyday "ordinary citizens" (as one Senate member referred to us) those running for election may take notice. More importantly, as President Obama put it - one of the few right things he has said - " The elections are 14 months away and the American people can't wait that long". Yes, Mr. President, we cannot. We demand action now and demand justice be served with no regard to social or financial status. If you are a crook you are a crook. There are many, many more Madoff's out there still enjoying the good life.