Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Countdown To 2012

How does everyone like reading about Nancy Pelosi taking her vacation at a $10,000/night place in Hawaii?  She purports to defend the well-being of the poor and needy, but in reality she is a reverse Robin Hood:   she uses her power to take from the Taxpayers and give to her family and wealthy supporters.  I can't wait until she finally drops dead.

I have a feeling the fears people have about the Mayan calendar prophecies will be unfounded.  HOWEVER, everyone should have a lot of fear over what is coming our way economically and politically.  The MF Global disaster and all of the fraud, corruption and Government enablement connected with that event should have people scrambling for physical gold and silver and making sure their weapons are well-oiled and easily accessible.

I want to say that gold and silver are setting up for a big move higher in 2012.  Again, the reasons underlying this move are the kinds of things that we can actually touch, feel and see - as opposed to the voo doo of the Mayan warnings.  One of the big drivers of gold going forward will be the accelerating accumulation by China - it's Central Bank and the population.  In fact, just today a senior official of the PBOC (China's Central Bank) made a statement urging the Government to increase its gold holdings on price declines: 
The Chinese government should not only be cautious of the imported risk caused by rising global inflation, but also further optimize its foreign-exchange portfolio and purchase gold assets when the gold price shows a favorable fluctuation  LINK
There are several other factors that lead me to conclude that the metals are getting ready to move a lot higher.  Not the least of which is the fact that the net short position in Comex silver futures of the bullion banks in silver is at a low level not seen since 2001.  As those of you who follow the COT report on a weekly basis know, when the big banks cover their shorts and increase their net long positions, it always leads to a big move higher: 
(click on chart to enlarge)

In addition, the sentiment levels in silver are a low as they were back in October 2008 at the lows of the last big, painful correction.  The sentiment indicator is one of the best indicators I know of in predicting the next move in the metals, especially at points of extreme readings.  I also know of some precious metals investors who are new to the game over the last couple of years who are throwing in the towel and moving back into cash.  This is something that makes absolutely no sense to me, especially given that we know for a fact that the Fed/Bernanke/Geithner are engaged in devaluing the U.S. dollar on a daily basis.  Of course, weaker-handed investors who exit are typically my number one contrarian indicator, COT reports notwithstanding. 

One more point of note:  the bottom of the last major correction in precious metals - October 2008 - also happened to precede the first massive round of money printing and Government bailouts.  I would argue that - given what we know about the financial condition of the Treasury, declining tax revenues, bigger Government expenditures than budgeted just 3 months ago and collapsing bank balance sheets - we are on the cusp of another big round of QE.  I don't know exactly when it will come and what form it will take, but it is coming.  I would suggest that this is the reason that the big bullion banks are covering up their short positions and Fed is working overtime to keep a lid on the metals. 

The last indicator that I wanted to point out - one that is over and above the obvious indicators - is the Austrian True Money Supply graph.  This metric measures the true supply of cash that is readily available in the financial system and is subject to less manipulation and more transparency than some of the other usual metrics.  You can read about it  HERE 

(click on chart to enlarge)

This chart is telling me that I should be fearful of inflation in 2012.  I will point out that the prime rib I purchased last December for $35 cost me $60 this year (roughly same weight, same store).   So the next time Bernanke or Geithner try to tell you there's no inflation in the system you can tell them to shove it up their ass by adding to your physical gold and silver holdings.  This chart is not something you will find on CNBC, CNN, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business or in your local newspaper.  But this chart tells me that gold and silver are getting ready to make a big move.

28 comments:

  1. I heard Rick Ackerman sees gold going to 1400 in 2012, and silver to 18.35. And then I saw this piece this morning by Charles Hugh Smith, suggesting commodities are topping out:

    http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/are-commodities-topping-out/67419

    I'm afraid my silver and miner portfolio are going to continue plunging.

    Is there reason to be confident this won't be happening?

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  2. Enjoy Dave

    http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2011/12/run-on-global-banking-systemhow-close.html

    Something that needs to be highlighted from Gonzalo Lira's article..

    As I write this, a lot of investors whom I know personally—who are sophisticated, wealthy, and not at all the paranoid type—are quietly pulling their money out of all brokerage firms, all banks, all equity firms. They are quietly trading out of their paper assets and going into the actual, physical asset.

    Note that they’re not trading into the asset—they’re simply exchanging their paper-asset for the real thing.

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  3. Anonymous:

    Keep posting your fears - they fuel my conviction that I'm right about contrarian sentiment even more. It's easy to say "hey man, buy when there's blood in the street," until you are looking through the blood in your own eyes, then you run in fear. I'm seeing blood in the street and I'm adding to positions.

    Ackerman is never right about the metals. He uses some goofy technical indicator that never works.

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  4. If you think the landscape is getting better read this...long gold, silver, and you might put a bid in for rope?

    The Big Lie

    As 2011 slithers to its end, none of the major problems that led to the crisis
    point three years ago have really been solved. Bank balance sheets still
    reek. Europe day by day becomes a financial black hole, with matter
    from the periphery being sucked toward the center until the vortex
    itself collapses. The Street and its ministries of propaganda have
    fallen back on a Big Lie as old as capitalism itself: that all that has
    gone wrong has been government’s fault. This time, however, I don’t
    think the argument that “Washington ate my homework” is going to work.
    This time, a firestorm is going to explode about the Street’s head—and
    about time, too.

    Over the next year, I expect the “what” will give way to the “how” in the broad electorate’s comprehension of the financial situation. The 99 percent must learn to differentiate the bloodsuckers and rent-extractors from those in the 1 percent who make the world a better, more just place to live. Once people realize how Wall Street made its pile, understand how financiers get rich, what it is that they actually do, the time will become ripe for someone to gather the spreading ripples of anger and perplexity into a focused tsunami of retribution. To make the bastards pay, properly, for the grief and woe they have caused. Perhaps not to the extent proposed by H. L. Mencken, who wrote that when a bank fails, the first order of business should be to hang its board of directors, but in a manner in which the pain is proportionate to the collateral damage. Possibly an excess-profits tax retroactive to 2007, or some form of “Tobin tax” on transactions, or a wealth tax. The era of money for nothing will be over.

    But it won’t just end with taxes. When the great day comes, Wall Street will pray for another Pecora, because compared with the rough beast now beginning to strain at the leash, Pecora will look like Phil Gramm. Humiliation and ridicule, even financial penalties, will be the least of the Street’s tribulations. There will be prosecutions and show trials. There will be violence, mark my words. Houses burnt, property defaced. I just hope that this time the mob targets the right people in Wall Street and in Washington. (How does a right-thinking Christian go about asking Santa for Mitch McConnell’s head under the Christmas tree?) There will be kleptocrats who threaten to take themselves elsewhere if their demands on jurisdictions and tax breaks aren’t met, and I say let ’em go!

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2011/12/25/wall-street-has-destroyed-the-wonder-that-was-america.html?

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  5. China's Pan Asian Gold Exchange in trouble

    http://www.bullionstreet.com/news/chinas-pan-asian-gold-exchange-in-trouble/683

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  6. Gentlemen,
    What does "gold going to 1400" truly mean? I only hope it does because then we know exactly where this wad of cash I'm sitting on will be going even before it "get's there".

    You will buy paper gold for 1400 all day long. Buy it for 1300, 1200, 1100, 1000, 900, 800, 700, 600, 500, 400, 300, 200, 100 and finally ZERO.

    But gentlemen, you will not buy real gold for any amount of "paper".

    This synthetic, homogenized, bastardized fractionalized, hypothecated derivative paper gold price discovery "system" is no indicator of the metal's re-emerging utility.

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  7. Gosh, I was so worried today that I took X MAS money and bought 15 oz silver and 1/2 oz. gold today.

    Soon the world will solve the world's insolvency by some Deus Ex Machina miracle and render gold and silver essentially worthless. That's the biggest fairy tale out there- keep believing that crap. It is impossible to change the fundamentals which continue to deteriorate.

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  8. How Anger Took Elites by Surprise

    And everywhere, this year of mass defiance wrong-footed those who were supposed to be in the know. The experts had thought the Arabs were getting richer and were too scared of their autocrats, that the Russians were apathetic and quite liked their neo-czar, that the Indian middle class was politically disengaged, that West Europeans were too old for outrage, that Americans didn’t care about the class divide and that the Chinese comrades were too effective at suppressing dissent.

    But everywhere, the conventional wisdom was turned upside down by people who turned out to be angrier than their elites had suspected, and better able to channel that dissatisfaction into mass protest and even revolution.

    The first surprise was the strength and near universality of the public discontent. Like Tolstoy’s unhappy families, the motivations of protesters in each country were unique. But there was a common thread to the uprisings and a common reason why the elites were taken by surprise.

    The unifying complaint is crony capitalism.

    But the notion that the rules of the economic game are rigged to benefit the elites at the expense of the middle class has had remarkable resonance this year around the world and across the political spectrum. Could the failure of the experts to anticipate this anger be connected to the fact that the analysts are usually part of the 1 percent, or at least the 10 percent, at the top?

    The second surprise was how easy it has become to transform mass dissatisfaction into mass protest. That was true both in chillingly repressive regimes and in ones where the hurdle to collective action had been thought to be public apathy.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/12/27/world/europe/27iht-letter27.html?_r=1&ref=europe

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  9. Ron Paul Did Not "Walk Out" of CNN Interview; Blatantly Biased Headline by Time Magazine; Six Reasons to Vote for Paul


    Fair to Say?!

    It's certainly not fair to make that claim. Can I see a poll please? Moreover, Libertarians do not hold the racial beliefs stated by David Frum.

    If someone wants to talk about ethics, it's just as easy for me to claim "It's fair to say the vast majority of those following the Paul story understand that CNN writers like Gloria Borger, David Frum, and Wolf Blitzer do not care about the news, they only care about generating sensational headlines, any way they can. Moreover, CNN openly support wars, regardless of the ethics of war, because war is good for ratings."

    I do believe that's "fair to say", although like David Frum I do not have a poll to prove it.

    While on the theme of "fair to say" I would like to point out this comment made by "EasyRhino" to Frum on the CNN blog: "Keep in mind Frum is a 5 star chicken hawk who defended the invasion of Iraq and advocates regime change in Iran and Syria, everything Paul is against."

    Contact CNN

    I might also point out that it's "fair to say" the CNN writers must be cowards because they do not have a direct way to contact them via email.

    You can however, Send a General Email to CNN and let them know what you think of their reporting.
    Six Reasons to Vote for Paul

    Paul is the only one for a balanced budget and a plan to get there
    the only one who would bring US troops home immediately
    the only one who would end the Fed
    the only one who believes in the free market
    the only one who believes gold should be money
    the only one who would dismantle entire government departments

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/12/ron-paul-did-not-walk-out-of-cnn.html

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  10. Does anyone here think that the Fraud in Chief has the balls to ask for another debt ceiling increase before the end of this year, even though the last one was suppose to be enough until the end of next year? Anyone?

    ReplyDelete
  11. yes...


    Mainstream Media: Dumbing it Down

    Between corporate sponsorship and pretty big paychecks, are news anchors and their networks really offering up a fair take on what’s at stake? Georgetown University’s Chris Chambers talks to us about how the mainstream media sneaks slants into their broadcast and brings a bias to the big stories.

    http://sgtreport.com/2011/12/mainstream-media-dumbing-it-down/

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  12. So first off, what happened with MF Global?


    But for now, I want to discuss one narrow aspect of the MF Global bankruptcy: How authorities (mis)handled the bankruptcy—either willfully or out of incompetence—which allowed customer’s money to be stolen so as to make JPMorgan whole.

    —in short, ordinary investors. Ordinary people—and they got screwed by the regulators, for the sake of protecting JPMorgan and other big fry who had exposure to MF Global.

    That, in a nutshell, is what happened.

    “The MF Global scandal has made it clear that the integrity of the system has disappeared,” said a good friend of mine, Tuur Demeester, who runs Macrotrends, a Dutch-language newsletter out of Brugge. “The banks are insolvent, the governments are insolvent, and all that’s left is for the people to realize what’s going on—and that will start a panic.”

    He hit it on the head: Some of the more sophisticated people—like Tuur, like some of my acquaintances, (like myself, frankly)—have realized that the MF Global scandal means that there is no safety for any paper investment: The integrity of the systems has been completely shattered. If in the face of one medium-sized brokerage firm going under, the regulators will openly allow ordinary people to be ripped off for the sake of protecting the so-called “Systemically Important Financial Institutions”—in this case JPMorgan—what will happen if there is a system-wide run? What if two or three MF Globals happen simultaneously?

    Will they protect the citizens’ money? Or will they protect the “Systemically Important Financial Institutions”?

    I think we know the answer.

    http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2011/12/run-on-global-banking-systemhow-close.html

    Armstrong called it..
    What is at stake now is exposing the political corruption of
    the New York media, courts, Justice Department, Commodity Futures
    Trading Commission, Securities Exchange Commission, and political
    process has come together in such a way that the fate of the nation is
    truly hanging in the balance. Why do I make such a bold statement? The
    failure of the clearing houses to step up and honor the trades is
    devastating. The conduct of the SEC and CFTC is despicable and how can
    you place ANYONE at the helm of either “regulator” who would EVER be
    in a position to have to recuse himself as the Commodity Futures
    Trading Commission’s chairman, Gary Gensler has done for being
    ex-Goldman Sachs?

    http://www.inflateordie.com/files/MF%20Global%20Disaster%2012-09-2011.pdf


    SEE...
    MF Global trustee has no conflict of interest: judge
    (Reuters) - The trustee liquidating MF Global's (MFGLQ.PK) brokerage does not have a conflict of interest stemming from prior work done for one of MF Global's key lenders, a bankruptcy judge said on Tuesday.

    Trustee James Giddens and his law firm, Hughes Hubbard & Reed, are sufficiently "disinterested," Judge Martin Glenn said in a ruling in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Manhattan.

    The ruling came in response to accusations from some customers that past work done by the firm for JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), one of MF Global's main lenders, constituted a conflict of interest.


    http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/28/us-mfglobal-idUSTRE7BR02O20111228?

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  13. Isn't this 3mm oz..? where did they get it? Libya?

    Plot to smuggle $5bn gold thwarted


    http://www.thenational.ae/news/uae-news/plot-to-smuggle-5bn-gold-thwarted

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  14. Yes Anonymous now you can fully understand why the Law makers ( Term used loosely ) passed a bill allowing the detainment of American citizens with out a trial.

    The final stages are being set, this is part in the movie where the men are separated from the loud mouth keyboard commandos.

    Keep your powder dry

    ReplyDelete
  15. gets better everyday....for gold


    Internal BNY Mellon Documents Show Panic

    After reports surfaced that BNY Mellon was under investigation, executives were torn over how to deal with inquiries from customers demanding to know if they had been overcharged, Mr. Wilson told prosecutors in May 2010. He told prosecutors that Mr. Mahoney "wants to tell them to 'go pound sand,' " but another executive who was "afraid of upsetting custody clients" disagreed.

    The documents reveal that at least one other former BNY Mellon employee has offered to help prosecutors build their case against the bank. The salesperson told the Florida attorney general in a letter earlier this year that he could describe how he had been "trained in committing fraud using various strategies."

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204879004577108630218485566.html

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  16. The dollar equals.....

    http://www.usdebtclock.org/

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  17. Ackerman's wife, like you Dave, is plugged in to Ron Paul. I hear she is going to caucus. Maybe I will see her state so together we can grab some national delegates for Ron Paul!

    Anyone else want to join me? Get to you local precinct caucus for a couple hours the evening of February 7, 2012. And remember to have fun!

    http://ronpaulcolorado.com

    About another QE... I don't know. The previous 2.5 failed. If they try another, Ron Paul's bill to get a full and complete audit of the Fed might pass and flush the Fed into history.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Doug Wead Speaks Truth: “We’re pleased with Ron Paul, he’s incorruptible”

    [Ed Note: The pathetic Larry Kudlow shows his true establishment colors in this concerted effort to smear Ron Paul, just as his corporate masters demand. What does this clip reveal? That Larry Kudlow doesn't give a crap about the Republic. Shameful.]

    http://sgtreport.com/2011/12/doug-wead-speaks-truth-were-pleased-with-ron-paul-hes-incorruptible/

    ReplyDelete
  19. How Banks Cheat Taxpayers

    It gets even worse in the derivatives markets, where banks routinely overcharge state and local governments for things like interest rate swaps, for one very obvious reason – swaps are not traded on open exchanges, so only the banks know how to price them.

    Imagine what NFL gambling would be like if the casinos didn’t publish the point spreads every week, and you’ll get a rough idea of how the swap market works. If you couldn’t look it up, how many points would you give the Dolphins against the Jets next week? Two? Five? Seven? The big casinos know, because they’re taking all that action, that the real number is one point.

    In the same vein, exactly how accurately do you think some local county treasurer might be able to guess the cost of an interest rate swap for his local school system? Answer: he’d probably do about as well as you or I would, guessing the odds on a Croatian soccer match.

    The big banks know this, which is why there should never, ever be non-competitive bids for those sorts of financial services. In a sole-source contract for a swap deal, you’re trusting a (probably corrupt) Too-Big-To-Fail bank to give you a good deal for a product whose price is not publicly listed anywhere.

    Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/how-banks-cheat-taxpayers-20111227#ixzz1hnpTps6F

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  20. Dave, what about using the excess reserves currently sitting with the US Banks? Banks buy USG debt from Fed, banks use debt as collateral, get cash, buy more USG Debt...keep the loop going until USG debt funded...

    The benefit for the fed maybe there is no announcement of QE3...i know, distinction without a difference, but fed likely can sell notion to the public ie. non-inflationary, nothing to see, fed's ok...bullish but might take the market sometime to figure it out...

    problem for the fed is a lot of these excess reserves sitting at the Fed would then enter and circulate into the economy...other problem is with these excess reserves drawn down, causes two problems, the latter of which might be more significant: a) official QE3 is guaranteed in 2013 since there likely is nowhere else to look to fund USG debt b) presuming unexpected bank runs, would lead to shortage of printed dollars - the excess reserves sit there nicely that could be used in such an event to calm the waters before the real storm...

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  21. The excess reserves are printed up money that have not circulated into the system yet. Unleash those and we will see a massive uptick in inflation. But those can't be used because that is what is keeping the banks from collapsing.

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  22. MF Global chief missing $1.2B is financial adviser to EPA

    During two days of recent congressional hearings into how as much as $1.2 billion disappeared from MF Global customer accounts, the chief operating officer of the imploding investment firm responded again and again that he did not know.

    Yet as the House and Senate interrogated Bradley I. Abelow and other top executives at MF Global Holdings Ltd., lawmakers did not mention Mr. Abelow’s role as a financial adviser for the Environmental Protection Agency, which as of Tuesday listed him as the chairman of its financial advisory board.

    Even as he finds himself the public face of a bankruptcy and admitted to lawmakers that he had no idea how client funds disappeared, Congress and the administration have voiced no public concern about Mr. Abelow’s role advising the $8.6 billion government agency on its finances.

    He has ties to EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson through former New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine. Each served at different times as the governor’s chief of staff. When Mr. Corzine lost his bid for re-election and later joined MF Global, Mr. Abelow followed.

    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/dec/27/mf-global-chief-missing-12b-financial-adviser-epa/

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  23. Jim Rogers’ Outlook For 2012 & Beyond
    Explains why he moved to Singapore (likes China, but Bejing & Shanghai too polluted)
    He’s short stocks “across the world”
    Long commodities
    Long gold, silver
    Crisis still imminent, better to take the hit now

    http://www.bearishnews.com/post/4733

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  24. Latest Releases from Martin Armstrong dated December 28, 2011


    http://totallygroovygirlfriday.wordpress.com/2011/12/28/latest-releases-from-martin-armstrong-dated-december-28-2011/

    ReplyDelete
  25. Former Fed VP Accuses Bernanke Of Bailing Out Europe Via Currency Swaps

    First it was Zero Hedge. Then Ron Paul joined in. Now it is the turn
    of a former Dallas Fed Vice President, Gerald ODriscoll, to outright
    accuse the Fed of bailing out Europe courtesy of "incomprehensible"
    currency swaps, and implicitly accusing Bernanke of lying that he
    would not bail out Europe even as he has done precisely that. And not
    only that: by cutting the USD swap spread from OIS+100 to OIS+50, the
    Fed has made sure it gets paid less than ever for extended Europe the
    courtesy of bailing it out all over again. Incidentally, O'Driscoll
    says, "America's central bank, the Federal Reserve, is engaged in a
    bailout of
    European banks. Surprisingly, its operation is largely unnoticed
    here." One thing we can say proudly - it has been noticed loud and
    clear here...

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/former-fed-vp-accuses-bernanke-bailing-out-europe-currency-swaps?

    ReplyDelete
  26. MSNBC "If Ron Paul Wins Iowa, We Just Take It Out"

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jP_-7ch1cAE

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  27. Bill Black: What if the SEC investigated Banks the way it is investigating Mutual Funds?

    The Wall Street Journal ran a story yesterday (12/27/11) entitled “SEC Ups Its Game to Identify Rogue Firms.” “Rogue” is an interesting word with a range of definitions. When it is used as an adjective its meaning is: “a playfully mischievous person; scamp.” The trivialization of the most destructive elite frauds is one of the most common forms of what criminologists call “neutralization” of the moral content of wrong doing. Neutralization increases crime.The actual story makes it clear that the criminals that the SEC was identifying were not “rogues.” They were the CEOs of seemingly legitimate firms. The SEC is identifying “accounting control frauds” – the frauds that cause greater financial losses than all other forms of property crime combined. The SEC is not identifying a few rotten apples, but roughly 100 hedge funds likely to have engaged in accounting fraud.

    The SEC should be applauded for finally understanding that “if it’s too good to be true; it probably isn’t true.”
    The most interesting aspects of the WSJ story, however, are two unexamined topics that should have been central to the story. First, there is not a word in the article about criminal prosecutions for the frauds the SEC has identified. The frauds, as described in the article, are so blatant that they would make relatively simple to prosecute. There is no indication that the SEC wanted the WSJ to know that they had made well over a hundred criminal referrals against hedge fund CEOs and senior officers. There is no indication that the WSJ reporters were interested in whether the SEC had made criminal referrals against these moderately elite felons. As a result, we have no information on whether the SEC has in fact made hundreds of criminal referrals against the senior officers at the hedge funds that they have identified as having engaged in likely fraud. Indeed, we have no evidence that they have made any criminal referrals. Neither the SEC nor the WSJ reporters indicated that any prosecutions, or even Department of Justice investigations, resulted from the SEC hedge fund investigations.
    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/12/bill-black-what-if-the-sec-investigated-banks-the-way-it-is-investigating-mutual-funds.html

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  28. Nancy front and center.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UR5M5teyQ0

    500,000,000 jobs lost per month in the USA. Right.

    What a stupid bitch.

    ReplyDelete