You CAN'T Be Serious

Before I get to the ridiculous non-farm payroll report the BLS released this morning (believe me, it's a serious pile of dog shit with chocolate cupcake frosting spread all over it to mask the stench), I wanted to point out that the media is finally starting to scrutinize CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler with regard to his oversight - or lack thereof - and role in the MF Global fraud.  I want it noted that this blog outlined Gensler's unscrupulous ties to Corzine a month ago:  Gensler and Corzine - Two butt-buddies, with reach-arounds

I'm starting to think that "BLS" - instead of Bureau of Labor Statistics - stands for Bureau of Ludicrous Shit.  The monthly non-farm payroll report was released to today and the numbers they are reporting are so absurd that they go well beyond any possible tiny shred of credibility.  The headlines scream:  "Jobless rate falls to 8.6%, 120,000 jobs added."  Sounds wonderful, right?  Go out and spend!  However, let's look at the truth behind the headlines.

Here's the numbers you won't see being reported by most news media sources.  The unemployment rate dropped from 9% to 8.6%.  This is a very highly manipulated number and it is determined by taking the size of the labor force - as reported and defined by the BLS - and dividing that number into the number of unemployed.  But first understand that the labor force is defined as "those employed plus those who are actively looking for a job."  There is a large amount of leeway for manipulation in this metric.  At any rate, in order to make the unemployment rate better, all the BLS is does is somewhat arbitrarily reduce the size of the defined "Civilian labor force."  If you go to page 5 of the link I provide below, you will see that from Oct 2011 to November 2011 the "civilian labor force" indeed declined from 154.198 million to 153,.883 - or by 315,000.  This means that according to the Government, 315,000 people stopped looking for work (or possibly got fired from their Walmart greeter job and slithered away into a cave).  Also on page 5 is the "labor force participation rate."  This shows the percentage of people in the economy who are considered to be part of the labor force.  This number dropped to 64%, the lowest rate since 1983.  Given that the population is substantially larger now than in 1983, this means that there are a record number of people out "there" who are not working and not looking for a job. That is, they are largely living off of the Government entitlement programs.  Another startling metric is the average duration of unemployment, which rose to a new record of 40.9 weeks, up from 39.4 weeks. 

More significantly, the BLS has a metric titled "Not in labor force."  This number increased from 86.07 million to 86.558 million, or a whopping 487,000.  So the Government is reporting to us that 487,000 people have decided that things are so good with their finances that they have decided to just stop working altogether.  I find this exceedingly hard to believe, especially since the supporting data that would support this metric show the complete opposite.  For instance, real wages have been plunging.  The point is, you would expect that more people would be looking for work, because the population is growing and people are earning less, on average, which would indicate to me that size of the real labor force should actually be growing, not shrinking.  Also on page 5 you will find "Duration of unemployment."   If you scroll down to page 6 in the link below you will see that average weekly earnings declined, as did average weekly hours worked.    These numbers are unequivocally not consistent with the positive jobs report that is being promoted in the headlines.  BLS - LINK

To sum it up, here's the truth that you will not see reported in your daily newspapers tomorrow or hear on your nightly local news, CNN, CNBC, Bloomberg or MSNBC:  There are less people working as a percentage of the total population, the total number of employed people as a percent of the population continues to decline, it's harder to find a job for those still looking, and those who do find a job are earning less - especially after factoring in inflation.  Sounds a bit different that the rosie headlines reported by the media and promoted on CNBC. 

Have a great weekend.  I am playing in my last tennis tournament this weekend as a USTA/NTRP 3.5-rated player, as I was bumped up to 4.0 by the NTRP.  I haven't decided if I will appeal this LOL.