Friday, January 13, 2012

It's Broncos/Tebow Time (see below); But First, Don't Believe The Hype

Just got an e-mail from a still-wealthy friend in the house remodeling biz--he says vendors are crying for business and looking for jobs for their workmen--product can be bought cheaply - longtime market colleague
about housing.  Despite the ebullience and bullishness surrounding the real estate/mortgage sector, the facts belie the spin.  There is a lot of yield-starved hedge fund money flowing into distressed mortgage securities - there was an article on Bloomberg News today about how the (in)famous John Paulson is pouring money into and doubling down on his big mortgage/real estate bet.  Judging by the ass-kicking his funds took in 2011, and observing the facts, I would continue to bet against him.  I know someone in Denver who runs a commercial real estate investment firm who's been selling down his portfolio.  He referred to the hedge fund pools of money buying them from him as "dumb money."  Here's a nice warning from Moody's about jumbo mortgage defaults:
With home prices likely to slip further in 2012 the risk of jumbo mortgages, yet to refinance out of security pools, will be at a growing risk of strategic default, Moody's Investors Service said in a forecast Thursday.
Here's the article:  LINK  I personally know of a few people who are sitting in their McMansions waiting for the bank to pull the foreclosure trigger.  The homes are hopelessly under water and housing values will continue to decline.  I really don't know how John Paulson figured out to short the whole sector back in 2007/8.  Maybe he's the hedge fund version Rain Man, and now he's gone off the deep end after getting buried in big long positions in BAC and Citi.  Speaking of Citi...

Again, actual data and evidence shows that the real estate/housing market - and the mortgage paper financing them - continues to plummet:  "Chase mortgage servicing expenses near $1 billion."  This is up from expenses of only $59 million from the previous quarter.  Here's the LINK  In their Chase says they expect further declines in the housing market in 2012.  Recall that there has been a big slowdown in actual foreclosures - not because people started paying their mortgages - from lawsuits and because banks slowed down foreclosures significantly to fabricate earnings and shore up regulatory capital. But losses from bad real estate loans will become a big theme in 2012 and these banks will have to start foreclosing on again the growing number of truthfully non-performing mortgages.  And these articles are not something you'll see reported in the mainstream media.  Instead you'll read about how big investors like Paulson are putting even more money into this crap...On to the fun...

Now, the Broncos are in the AFC Divisional Playoffs and face a heavily favored New England Patriots...well, Dave from Denver has your Tom Brady for ya right here:

Two and half months ago the Broncos were in the suck for Luck sweepstakes  - local Denver sports radio host, Mark Goodman


  1. You think this is isolated to Queens?...I don't

    Queens Broker Is Accused of Bringing Immigrants’ Ruin

    In July, it all came crashing down. Agents from the Federal Bureau of
    Investigation arrested Mr. Ahmad, charging him with masterminding a
    $50 million mortgage fraud that seemed to exemplify a nationwide
    phenomenon of celebrated immigrant brokers who were accused of preying
    on their own.

    Now, scores, if not hundreds, of Guyanese immigrants are facing
    financial ruin because of loans said to have been arranged by Mr.
    Ahmad, and the repercussions from the case have extended from Queens
    to Washington to Guyana.

    Mr. Ahmad, 44, is charged with luring buyers into subprime mortgages,
    inflating the values of their properties and concealing his
    involvement by using straw buyers, like his wife and the Guyanese-born
    captain of the United States cricket team, Steve Massiah.

    Since 2009, more foreclosures have been filed in Queens than in any
    other borough, according to the Neighborhood Economic Development
    Advocacy Project. Five of the hardest hit ZIP codes in Queens are
    within a 15-minute drive of the office of Mr. Ahmad, who community
    leaders say once held about 75 percent of local real estate listings.

    Mr. Ahmad and one of his brokers offered Mr. Husain and Mr. Saha a
    three-family house for $880,000 but warned of another bid, Mr. Husain
    said. Mr. Ahmad demanded that they close within a week, insisting they
    use his lawyer, his appraiser and his mortgage officer, who pushed to
    finance 95 percent of their home at a 12.5 percent rate, Mr. Saha and
    Mr. Husain said.

    Within two years, their finances were devastated, they said. The
    property was on the brink of foreclosure, the souvenir store that
    their families owned together went bankrupt, and they depleted savings
    they had accumulated since emigrating from Bangladesh in the 1990s.

    “You can only imagine two households trying to keep one property
    afloat,” said Mr. Husain, who has filed a civil lawsuit against Mr.
    Ahmad. “It sucked everything dry.”

    ...this is everywhere


  2. I remember reading a couple of years ago how John Paulson had just made out like a dragon shorting sub-prime. I also read in the article that he was loading up on banks and financial shit, and I thought, damn, this stupid motherfucker is going to give back every cent.


  3. well I was the anon who said last week good thing you aren't a sports site. I humbly had to take that back obviously. I'm not drinking the Koolaid but I'm not so quick to write TT and the Broncs off this time- they may just do it if they can find a way to reign in Brady....
    btw, I heard TT is the most talked about white bronco since OJ's famous drive :)

  4. DENVER (CBS Denver) — Denver Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow is not the only one who thinks God helps him on the football field.

    According to a national telephone survey conducted by Poll Position, 43 percent of people believe that “divine intervention” is responsible for his success compared to 42 percent of people surveyed who think that God has nothing to do with Tebow winning.

    Breaking it down into demographics, the Poll Position survey shows that 52 percent of people in the 18- to 29-year-old age range believe that supernatural powers help Tebow, while about 48 percent of people aged between 45-64 believe the same.

    Hispanic fans also feel that a holy power is helping the Broncos quarterback as 81 percent of those polled believe God is behind Tebow, compared to 59.5 percent among blacks and 38 percent among whites.

    Among party affiliation, 54 percent of Republicans polled believe God is helping Tebow while 48 percent of Democrats think there is no divine intervention going on.

    The poll surveyed 1,076 people.

    Oh...My...God...this country is in way over it's head. Imagine what these people will do when they no longer can afford their meds? When a Bank Holiday hits? When all their "paper" is worthless? (Illegals sure got the faith, huh?)

    "Doesn't matter, as long as I can keep the Bank from foreclosing on my house and the power company from turning off the electricity, at least till monday, I'm gonna watch that GAME on my 80" flat screen tv (that I just bought on my EBT card). God told me to. Skip church, He said. Watching this game IS CHURCH! It's gonna be a revelation cuz God gonna be in the stands. God bless the NFL and all that watch it. Yes, we're on the verge of WW3 with those scum bags in the middle east, but this is more important. Just nuke 'em all so we can have our football!

    PS God, could you give Brady a massive concussion in the first quarter or maybe at least a compound fracture of his right tibia, that way, in the second quarter we can have the Second Coming, Hallelujah!"

  5. Anon said---

    "...TT is the most talked about white bronco since OJ's famous drive."


  6. MF Global customers learn they're unlikely to get back 100 percent of their money

    Frustrated MF customers like Fane have been left holding the bag on a good 30 percent of their money in the aftermath of MF’s bankruptcy. Whether they get the remaining money will depend in part on a final tally of the missing funds.

    “The potential shortfall is significant and may impact the trustee’s ability to make a 100-percent distribution,” warned James Kobak, a lawyer for the trustee, in his prepared remarks to the crowd of more than 200 that gathered for the meeting in a conference room at the New York Marriott Downtown, a block south of the 9/11 memorial.
    During the hearing, Kobak cited “difference of opinion” and warned that Giddens may have to “defend against their claims.”

    “What I noticed was how much frustration was in the room,” said Cory Brandt, a broker whose clients lost money to MF. “The biggest questions everyone wants to know is where the money is and when we will get it, and they didn’t answer that question,” he said.

    Read more:

  7. Hi - thank you for your interesting reads. I have noticed now with myself that I wait for the real news after "positive" headlines simply because the truth is now so shallowly buried - and it is easier to determine what to read.

    Perhaps its also good to start a chain reaction of positive actions taken to survive this mess. There are a few - communities bartering - maker movements - making your own things etc. Cathrine Austin Fitts impressed me recently on Alex Jones wanting and directing focus on positive change.

    Two big things we need to notice is that where change is pushed from - firstly GRASSROOTS (all through history change never came from the top) and secondly from the YOUNG. This we see in all areas including the military. What is also very very important to notice is also that RON PAUL doesn't only have the grassroots and young support but from an area which is established in a country to protect the control, ie the military. This is extremely important. So this time change is PUSHED/(NOT PULLED THROUGH). All through history have we noticed how controllers are deposed - especially in Africa.

    So its time to focus on two things - what are the positive changes happening - and listening to the young. And instead of disparraging the young with comments of idealism/no experience etc etc to encourage them.

    One big issue for me - I once asked a Grandfather who was a Financial Adviser of note what about the world debt - I fell of my chair with his answer - Let the young pay for it. What bothers me is that individual families want to leave a legacy for their young but collectively they do something completely different.

  8. There is a third thing I would appreciate your comments on which needs, I think, highlighting.

    China's gold demand - private and public.

    Lets assume China is behind in terms of Gold reserves, they may not be.

    To the question - why would a Government encourage private Gold demand?

    The negative answer, as noted by someone before in the blogging community, is that it is better to have it within the country so that "Governments" "own" more within their borders!!!! Didn't want to use confiscation as the operative word.

    The positive answer - is to break the cartel. Historically China has been shafted by being paid for goods in opium, silver and now dollars/debt. In all three instances the west "devalued" the medium of payment. Opium is clear, Silver was demonetised after being used as payment and now the dollar. Are the Chinese dumb? Or is it payback?

    The one answer nobody is focusing on is Private ownership in China is a necessity for what China wants to do in response to the Developed worlds currency. If the west is intent on trashing their paper so China is and will go out and trash theirs, irrespective of the strength of their economy. So to take care of that and to reduce unrest China is encouraging Gold ownership because they want to respond to the currency war. this is exactly what I would do - own physical and trash my paper together with everyone. The tragedy of the commons in paper assets.

    And as the China economy is reducing in strength - China under darkness can accumulate commodities (hard resources at cheaper prices) and stockpile huge amounts. This is especially easy with metals which can be stored for many, many years. With food it is less able to do. Metal in the hand now to be stored is better than in the ground for later as we will in future have an energy problem unless technology changes. Because what is a clear fact is that the world economy/power is shifting to the east. It is a simply, clear fact of live and history!

    Thanks for your thoughts

  9. I have always thought that China was trying to get as much gold and silver as they can into the hands of the masses ahead of rolling out a gold/silver backed currency that will become the global trading currency. Think about it this way: The U.S. has transferred wealth from China to the U.S. by selling them $1 trillion in bonds that have been substantially devalued via the huge devaluation of the dollar. Let's assume the U.S. Treasury gold is largely sold out or leased. If China were to accumulate the world's largest stockpile of sovereign gold/silver - and at the same time got a large portion of its population to do the same - it can effectively re-extricate that wealth back from the U.S. by rolling out a gold/silver backed currency and comcomitantly revaluing the price the gold and silver up by several multiples. This will transfer a lot of inherent wealth from Western systems back to China and will instantly create a large middle class in China.

    I think something like this happens within the next 10 years, if the world isn't in some sort of armegeddon-like world war...

  10. We are killing the Patriots !!!

  11. Ron Paul is SURGING! Moneybomb for a SURPRISE VICTORY in South Carolina!

  12. I agree with Dave regarding China and a new world currency. In fact, I think it is INEVITABLE. This shit will happen within the NEXT FIVE YEARS.

    For now, China will continue to divest their reserves of US fiat paper into hard assets, gold and real estate etc. When they have finally, quietly and behind the scenes, positioned themselves accordingly, they will very publicly announce their support for a new world reserve currency, backed at least in part by gold and on terms very favorable to China. By very publicly announcing their support of the new world currency, they will crash US markets and the US dollar will become toast.

    China has been manipulating trade for decades while the US has been helping set the stage for it's own economic collapse. China has been playing chess while the US has been playing checkers. With the looming fall of the USD and therefore America, China will have won the game they have been playing for decades---they will be the new global economic superpower. After losing world reserve currency status, the USA will take a minimum of many decades to get back on track.

    Physical gold and silver in your possession is the best way to cover your ass. Fuck gold and silver ETF's. Fuck gold and silver stocks. There is simply no way to know today where the confiscation stops once the collapse begins. All of the futures exchanges will seize up and the money will be stolen, just like MF Global. IRA's and 401k's will be confiscated. Capital controls will be implemented. The 1930's Great Depression will be a utopia compared to where this shit is headed today.

    Anyone who thinks China won't pull the plug on the USA is psychotic. China KNOWS the USA's currency is being deliberately devalued by Bernanke. China has already indicated publicly that they plan to be less reliant on US trade. They know the US is bankrupt. China is rapidly arriving at the point where they would be foolish NOT to pull the plug on the USA.