The naked shorts in silver, who had the upper hand by sending silver back below $35, are going to be in for a real surprise by the speed and strength of the silver market when it turns - James Turk, KWN interview LINKA quick comment on today's "robust" retail sales report. More appropriately labelled, "robustly reported" retail sales report. First, don't forget that this is a Government-calculated and reported number. In this report, the second footnote states:
Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes LINKPlease note: "adjusted for seasonal variation" AND the effect of inflation is NOT removed. So these numbers, aside from the the likely problematic data-gathering, statistical compilation and mathematical formulas of "seasonal adjustment," are inflated by real inflation. In other words, the numbers reflect gross dollar sales, not growth in unit sales. Even if you adjusted them by the Government-calculated CPI, they would still be overstated because the Government CPI number is fraudulently incorrect by several multiples. John Williams - who does exhaustive work on the Government numbers - had this to say about the number: "With overall consumer inflation in February likely accounting for more than half of the 1.1% headline monthly sales, the residual reported sales would not be statistically significant."
Let's say that there might have actually been a small increase in retail sales - again, I would argue that on a real-inflation-adjusted basis, unit retail sales likely declined. But what might be driving a growth in the nominal number, besides inflation and "seasonal adjustments?" Take a look at this chart of consumer credit - the numbers come from the Fed, the chart from John Williams' Shadow Stats report: