The Golden Truth: Consumer De-Leveraging?

Thursday, June 7, 2012

Consumer De-Leveraging?

Maybe, maybe not. The media is reporting that the consumer is "de-leveraging" per the Fed's latest "Z-1" flow of funds report (quarterly). You can look at pretty graphs here: LINK

Let's get one thing straight. On the surface, the numbers may make it look like the consumer is reducing it's debt load. But we need to see more data about where this "de-leveraging" is coming from. Given that banks are processing a voluminous number of foreclosures, short sales and credit card charge-offs, I would bet a lot of money that the source of this "de-leveraging" is the banks writing off bad consumer debt.

In other words, on the surface the news about consumers might appear positive. However, I'm sure a deeper analysis beyond regurgitating the headline statistics would likely show continued decay in the financial health of the average American household, and therefore the economy. One metric that would be of better use than grabbing macro numbers from the Z-1 report would be to look at household debt as a percent of personal income, after subtracting Government transfer payments from the personal income number. Think about that one, given that we know that personal income net of Government entitlements is declining.

2 comments:

StilichoMonday, 11 June, 2012
Per Z1, all of the household sector deleveraging since the sector high of Q1 2008 has come from mortgage debt reduction. There was a small decline in consumer credit, but it has been increasing since Q3 2010 and is now back up to 2008 levels.
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StilichoMonday, 11 June, 2012
You may find THIS link of interest.
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Why Gold?

Gold is the world's oldest currency. You exchange your fiat currency (dollars, euros, yen, yuan) into gold as an insurance policy against catastrophic Central Bank and Government policies which serve to destroy the value of fiat currencies and destroy democracy.

Gold can ONLY be considered an investment to the extent that it remains significantly and historically undervalued in relation to the fiat currencies against which its value is measured. Otherwise it remains the world's oldest currency and is completely free from the counterparty risk associated with currency by Government fiat (i.e. fiat currencies rely on a Government's "full faith and credit.")

Quote Of The Month Courtesy of "Jesse"

Unfortunately for Larry Summers, Ben Bernanke, and their friends at the BIS, they have not yet figured out how to print physical gold, silver, and other essential commodities, and the world is reaching the point where it might simply start ignoring the New York based markets with respect to essential commodities such as basic materials, oil, foodstuffs, and the like, as they become increasingly irrelevant, fraudulent, and Orwellian. And then where will the financial engineers be, except with no more excuses and no place to hide?

Here is the link to his entire commentary, well worth a read:

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/07/gold-daily-chart-shock-and-awe-for.html

Great Quote From Jim Rogers On Govt CPI Reporting

JR: I mean, we have inflation now. If you go to the shop, whether it’s groceries, or education or insurance or health care, prices are going up for everything. The government lies about it in the US. Some countries lie, many countries don’t: Australia, China, India and Norway. Many countries don’t lie about it and acknowledge that we have inflation. Others lie about it, the UK and the US, but if you go shopping you know prices are up.

Q: Are you saying that the American Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is a lie?

JR: In my opinion, yes, of course it is. Have you looked at it? They’ve changed their accounting several times in the past few decades. When housing was 20% to 25% of the CPI and housing was going up, they didn’t count it, saying rents weren’t going up, and then when home prices started going down, they counted it. It’s the same with many things. It’s staggering some of the tortuous reasoning that the BLS has used over the past 25 or 30 years. When the price of gasoline goes up, they say it’s not really going up because it’s better gasoline, better quality, therefore you’re getting more for your money. I mean, it’s endless, the stuff that they say and for some reason people sit there, although more and more people are catching on, and accept what the government says.

source: www.clusterstock.com

Quote of the Week

"The primary function of a Central Bank is to engage in the massive transfer of wealth from the middle class to the wealthy elite. The Federal Reserve was set up to do this with the blessing and support of Congress." - Dave in Denver

If you refuse to believe the above, please read "The Creature From Jekyll Island: A Second Look at the Federal Reserve" by G. Edward Griffin and then explain to me why the Senate voted down the Vitter Amendment and Congress refuses to pass a law requiring a full audit of the Fed, even though the Fed is using taxpayer-backed money to bailout Wall Street and Europe.