Friday, July 20, 2012

Weekly Chart Porn - Uber-Bullish Silver Signals

8 comments:

  1. Here's hoping there's credence to this because the last year or so has not only been a test of intestinal fortitude but maddening for obvious fundamental reasons. Thanks for what you do Dave.

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  2. Hola Chico Loco,

    The USD is staging Uber BULLISH moves.

    Once we cross the 85 rubicon look out.

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    1. C'mon broheem, given everything else going on in the paper world, the dollar index should be over 90. On a relative basis, the dollar is sucking wind. A lot of cash that used to pile into the dollar is now piling into the metals.

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    2. This USD bull move is entirely euro related. It has done absolutely nothing against the CAD and AUS dollars!

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  3. Well conversely Gold should be at 1900 by now with all that is happening in the world but is also sucking wind. Especially silver on the edge of a cliff.

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  4. michael schumacherMonday, 23 July, 2012

    Not to argue with a chart analysis, don't disagree what it is saying however we have not had one of those days where they just drop a 100k contracts in the space of less than an hour. I think that is what is setting up here. It's akin the the painting in the equity market...I can recall a few times where the markets set up a head and shoulders on the SPX and the manipulators just slammed it the other way....same thing here methinks. Now that's not what I want to see but remember they move a market the way that hurts the most.
    MS

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  5. Dave with all due respect, the constant silver physical shortage bantering is sounding like the boy who cried wolf. I'll believe it the day I see a sold out sign on Kitco's silver section. (btw I do own physicals)... Cheers!

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    1. I agree it gets amplified by a lot of people who do not know what they are talking about. However, what I'm referring to is the use of allocated silver by JPM as the custodian of SLV and as a Comex vault custodian that they are not legally entitled to use. JPM doesn't just use hypothecation in every other part of its custodian business but leaves the silver intact. Anyone who believes that is an idiot.

      Regarding actual physical deliveries, our fund has had delays in getting silver delivered by HSBC as our counterparty TWICE in the recent past.

      I wouldn't watch Kitco as a signal that the silver scarcity is hitting retail - use the bid/ask premiums at Tulving.

      HOWEVER, my point in my blog post is that once enough big investors decide that it's time to stop trusting vault custodians with their silver - i.e. big SLV investors plus big investors who use the Comex vaults for safekeeping - there will be run on silver like you can't imagine.

      THAT will happen - it's just a matter of time.

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