The Golden Truth: Will The Real Jobless Benefit Claims Number Please Step Forward?

Thursday, October 11, 2012

Will The Real Jobless Benefit Claims Number Please Step Forward?

There's no B.S. like the b.s. from the BLS - My name is Dave In Denver and I approve this blog post

The headline report from all the news services reads: "Jobless Claims Plunge To New Four-Year Low," among other misleading statements. That is also the headline report that will be reported to the hoi polloi who watch their local nightly news rather than stay current with what's going on with Snooki. That is also the headline that will be read by those who actually pick up a newspaper tomorrow (the dwindling few in our society who actually try to keep up with the news).

But, alas, just like all the other economic reporting by the Government, this jobless claims headline is complete bullshit. The BLS itself, in post-report comments, states that "a single large state was responsible for most of the drop in claims." As it turns out, this "large" unidentified State is thought to be California:

As a result, there is an accumulation of claims that are likely submitted over a period of several weeks but not processed until the turn of the quarter. Apparently, the state in question (and it pretty much has to be California to account for anything close to 30,000) forgot to include that stockpile of unprocessed claims in their tally for this week (which is the first week of a new calendar quarter). Since the seasonal factors expected an unadjusted surge of almost 20% in the period to account for the quarterly filing pattern, failure to adhere to that pattern in the raw data (unadjusted claims were only up 8.6%) creates a big drop seasonally adjusted (LINK)

Once again, the Government leaves out facts in reporting the headlines and most of the financial media analysts choose to debate the headline number, which is clearly a false number, rather than dig for and discuss the truth. Although, I'm told that Steve Liesman, CNBC's obsequiously ubiquitous apologist for all headline economic reports, was uncharacteristically speechless over this headline report. Liesman is one of those guys with whom it is apparent that his brains fell out of head along with his hair.

Interestingly, the "unadjusted" claims number for the reporting week showed an increase of 25,990 claims vs. the previous week. I would argue that the unadjusted number would be a lot more relevant since the headline number did not include from California a big piece of data that is used for the "seaonal adjustments" calculation and we have no earthly idea how the BLS calculates its "seasonal adjustments" OR even if the theories underlying the calculations for these adjustments make any rational sense. Here's the BLS report: LINK

I've been dragging this article around from the Washington Post so I decided to post it today. It discusses the degree to which members of Congress have - on average - managed to increase their wealth by a substantial amount over the last 8 years, while the 99% class in this country has seen its wealth decline and the its average personal income decline. This article alone explains in economic terms why it doesn't matter which Party is in control of the White House OR Congress: LINK

Despite that article, I still can't figure out how Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Mormon from Nevada, managed to go from being pretty much penniless to worth several million dollars since his first term in the Senate commenced in 1987. Here's a guy who's law practice was in shambles and who barely had a pot in which to piss and now he's part of the .5%'ers (point five percenters). Anyone got any explanation for that? I don't and neither do the people I know who have lived in Nevada their whole life. I will say, I wonder if Reid will secretly support his faith and vote for his Brother Romney in November...

3 comments:

HalThursday, 11 October, 2012
when you look at Calif sales tax revenues being down, and hear stories of how companies are moving out of Calif and all the other problems we had better expect numbers "soft" out of CA.

there are just too many "coincidences" occurring now with govt information.

If you (are one of us) and peel back the onion you know the truth (or the golden truth)

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JDThursday, 11 October, 2012
Aumn reports a 28% increase in silver production and 27% increase in gold. The shares traded up initially but closed in the negative. The market cap is a laughing stock of 175mm. If this little junior could ever turn a profit for the quarter I think we could see a takeoff like Ppp recently experienced.
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Why Gold?

Gold is the world's oldest currency. You exchange your fiat currency (dollars, euros, yen, yuan) into gold as an insurance policy against catastrophic Central Bank and Government policies which serve to destroy the value of fiat currencies and destroy democracy.

Gold can ONLY be considered an investment to the extent that it remains significantly and historically undervalued in relation to the fiat currencies against which its value is measured. Otherwise it remains the world's oldest currency and is completely free from the counterparty risk associated with currency by Government fiat (i.e. fiat currencies rely on a Government's "full faith and credit.")

Quote Of The Month Courtesy of "Jesse"

Unfortunately for Larry Summers, Ben Bernanke, and their friends at the BIS, they have not yet figured out how to print physical gold, silver, and other essential commodities, and the world is reaching the point where it might simply start ignoring the New York based markets with respect to essential commodities such as basic materials, oil, foodstuffs, and the like, as they become increasingly irrelevant, fraudulent, and Orwellian. And then where will the financial engineers be, except with no more excuses and no place to hide?

Here is the link to his entire commentary, well worth a read:

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/07/gold-daily-chart-shock-and-awe-for.html

Great Quote From Jim Rogers On Govt CPI Reporting

JR: I mean, we have inflation now. If you go to the shop, whether it’s groceries, or education or insurance or health care, prices are going up for everything. The government lies about it in the US. Some countries lie, many countries don’t: Australia, China, India and Norway. Many countries don’t lie about it and acknowledge that we have inflation. Others lie about it, the UK and the US, but if you go shopping you know prices are up.

Q: Are you saying that the American Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is a lie?

JR: In my opinion, yes, of course it is. Have you looked at it? They’ve changed their accounting several times in the past few decades. When housing was 20% to 25% of the CPI and housing was going up, they didn’t count it, saying rents weren’t going up, and then when home prices started going down, they counted it. It’s the same with many things. It’s staggering some of the tortuous reasoning that the BLS has used over the past 25 or 30 years. When the price of gasoline goes up, they say it’s not really going up because it’s better gasoline, better quality, therefore you’re getting more for your money. I mean, it’s endless, the stuff that they say and for some reason people sit there, although more and more people are catching on, and accept what the government says.

source: www.clusterstock.com

Quote of the Week

"The primary function of a Central Bank is to engage in the massive transfer of wealth from the middle class to the wealthy elite. The Federal Reserve was set up to do this with the blessing and support of Congress." - Dave in Denver

If you refuse to believe the above, please read "The Creature From Jekyll Island: A Second Look at the Federal Reserve" by G. Edward Griffin and then explain to me why the Senate voted down the Vitter Amendment and Congress refuses to pass a law requiring a full audit of the Fed, even though the Fed is using taxpayer-backed money to bailout Wall Street and Europe.