Friday, April 12, 2013

The Wheels Are Coming Off In Cyprus - This Is Bad News For the U.S.

If you want to discern the next big turning point in the tide of global affairs - look as far away as possible from the present seats of global power - The Privateer paraphrasing Felix Dzerzhinsky, Lenin's head of the secret police and expert global affairs analyst.

As The Privateer's Bill Buckler points out, "Cyprus now is a valuable window into what the world is going to face at some point in the future." 

It was announced that the size of the bailout for Cyprus is now 23 billion euros.  That's up from 17 billion euros.  Originally it was set to be 10 billion euros.  While most people could probably care less or fail to see the relevance, the fundamental banking problems that got Cyprus into trouble are the very same banking activities practiced by all big banks globally - and to the extreme in the U.S. and Europe.

The amazing thing is that no one even flinches at the fact that the Federal Reserve is currently printing up and injecting $85 billion per month into the U.S. financial system - 66 billion euros, or 3 times the amount of the Cyprus bailout on a monthly basis .  So you have to wonder what's going on beneath the well-polished veneer of economic reports being fed to us by the mainstream media.

It just so happens that I have some data that shows the U.S. economy is falling apart:

Retail sales for March were reported today: off a cliff - unit volume sales seriously declined if nominal sales were down .4% and .2% after gasoline is stripped out.  January retail sales revised from +.2% to negative .1%.  The consumer is disappearing.
Consumer confidence plunged.  The sub-indices did absolute cliff-dives.  The miss vs. expectations was the largest miss in history for consumer confidence.  
Housing sales declining now in most regions.  JPM and WFC reported their earnings today.  Below the headlines they were a disaster.  Net interest margin is declining and has been for several quarters for JPM.   WFC is the largest home loan lender now - it's revenues from home loans has dropped 15% year over year and 12% vs. last quarter - how can that be if housing is truly recovering?
That's what's happening.  It's going to get ugly this summer and it is highly likely - just like the bailout bogey for Cyprus keeps getting larger - that the Fed will have to once again increase the amount of money being printed and injected into the banking system.  De facto, the Fed is indeed bailing out the U.S. banking system right now.  The problems that hit in 2008 were never truly addressed - just papered over.  And now they are bigger and more problematic then in 2008.

Anyone happen notice that the U.S. is escalating the "sabre rattling" going on between the U.S. and North Korea?  Now all of a sudden the Government has decided that North Korea's nuclear capabilities are more sophisticated than yesterday.  Kind of reminds of the storyline about Saddam Hussein hiding all those weapons of mass destruction somewhere in the desert.  I guess the 50,000 troops still stationed in Iraq are still over there looking for them.

This current activity in the precious metals market is 100% the product of the paper market manipulation.  The price declines occur after Asia closes down every night and right at the U.S. paper/electronic market opens.  China imported 100 tonnes of gold into the country in February.  That's just gold we can track being reported through Hong Kong.  Last night alone 26 tonnes were delivered on the Shanghai gold exchange.

Today is a capitulation day.  Paper gold and silver products - GLD/SLV - are trading currently in volume at 5 times and 4 times their respective 3 month average daily volume.   Go have some fun this weekend and don't think about the markets.  If what I think is coming at us really comes at us this year, it will be a lot harder to have fun in the future.


  1. Dave, don't do that to us, please tell us what you think is coming despite the fact that I personally think it's not good either...

    When does WWIII the currency war turn into WWIII the shooting war..?

    1. LOL. Hopefully not as soon as I think it might...

  2. (Quinn in Littleton)

    What a day Dave.

    "When the pressure comes, preferences give way while convictions hold firm." - Edwin Lous Cole.

  3. Is it possible that gold bull is over? Even if fundamentals say otherwise, this market hasn't traded on fundamentals in a long time. If the large financial players dictate that the gold bull is over, then maybe it's over?

  4. John-John-John. EVERY central bank in the world is printing! Cyprus WILL be a template for the confiscation of personal savings account, TFS accounts(Canada), and EVERY government retirement savings plan.

    So they are increasing the worlds fiat money supply by many countless factors and stealing money from there accounts. WHERE DO YOU THINK PEOPLE WILL RUN???


  5. I would like to inject some logic here. No offense to Dave who writes a terrific blog. Anyone who purchases physical metal should be looking at it as an insurance policy. I don't want to cash this policy. I would much rather leave it to my childern and having them pass it on to their children. The way this shit storm is looking I now believe that I will end up using the policy. Does it really matter the dollar value of your ounces?
    What will matter is what can you procure for those ounces. Food,water,shelter,escape from oppression come to mind as value. Don't get hung up with daily prices,focus on the bigger picture. I tried to buy silver today from my dealer,sold out. Demand soring prices falling? Yeah right we have free unmanipulated markets.

    1. Well said. You and johnrandi have the gist of it. They should print t-shirts that say "Keep Stacking".

  6. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren on Friday made the case for the central bank's current policy without hitting the brakes. In a speech at a Boston Fed economics conference, Rosengren said "we are well above our unemployment target and well below our inflation target, so highly accommodative policy is both appropriate and necessary."

    The Fed's Rosengren and snivelling Steve Liesman had set the table for US ABEnomics this AM as the paper gold hit was blooming.

    Central banks call financial asset inflation "wealth effect." They justify enslaving entire nations and multiple generations to debt, stealing wage earners' buying power and destroying retiree budgets in this fashion.

    I'll try to have fun but I'm sickened by the deceit and the traitors destroying this country.

    1. You're right johnrandi, we're all sick of the lies and deceit. Be patient, keep you head down, your powder dry and stack what you can. It will be exposed for what it is in the end.

  7. For years we have been conditioned for 100 buck moves but you idiots didn't mention it would only be down. What the fuck does Cyprus matter.

    1. What does anything matter when you have a Government and banking system that controls your life in ways you can't see or understand because you have your head up your ass or in front of the tv watching all the mental masturbation that is used to distract the hoi polloi from paying attention to the truth.

  8. To the person who wanted me to publish Martin Armstrong's work - Armstrong is a supreme scum of the earth. He's lucky he got the support for Sinclair that he got which helped spring him out of jail early. Then he turned on the people who helped pay his legal fees. He's a true unethical barbarian.

    This is my response to someone who asked me about Armstrong a few months ago:

    Martin Armstrong is an interesting subject. He started publishing his market views in the early-mid 2000's and Jim Sinclair was good enough publish everything the prison he was in would let him send out. Some of his early work on gold was very insightful and useful in analyzing the gold market and how gold fits in with the overall systemic picture. I personally found his writings to be quite unnecessarily bogged down with self-indulgent displays of historical knowledge that most of us already had. He style of writing also tended to be patronizing, assuming the reader was uniformed, and extremely self-promotional. But overall he was value-added.

    GATA eventually took up Armstrong's cause and helped raise money that helped Armstrong get of out jail a little earlier than he was originally scheduled to be released. Amazingly, really shockingly, Armstrong proceeded to start turning out work that was directly, almost intentionally, opposed to everything GATA and Sinclair represent. It was like he immediately burned the bridge that got him a lot of support, sympathy and help getting sprung from the big house early.

    Looking back, I think when Armstrong was in jail he had found an audience and source of support and proceeded to manipulate it to his benefit. Sinclair and GATA were so ticked off that they don't even acknowledge his existence anymore.

    As for his views on the gold market, I think he's out of his mind. He thinks the gold market isn't manipulated. That's insane. ALL of the evidence presented by GATA and observed by long-time market participants like Don and myself notwithstanding, even Paul Volker and Alan Greenspan are on public record making both indirect and direct references to gold market manipulation. Anyone who looks at the enormous body of work which proves the manipulation and makes the statement that the market isn't manipulated is either tragically stupid or hopelessly full of denial.

    Since the time of his jail-bound writings, Armstrong has become nothing but hubris incarnate. His work is mostly delusional and his conclusions are not based in fact. I took a peek, out of curiosity, at his latest missive on gold in which he targets $1200. I just laughed. He has no good reasons for that. In fact, the most recent event in Cyprus underscores the thesis that gold has bottomed out and is getting ready to make an extended run to new all-time highs. With the hedge fund category of CFTC-classified trader at an all-time record high gross short position in paper gold, the move higher will likely happen more quickly than most understand.

    With regard to Armstrong and why he ended up in jail, looking back at his behavior since getting out of jail, my inclination is to disbelieve every claim he's made about his supposed innocence and he has no credibility with me and many others.

    1. Dave, I also came to the same conclusion as yourself regarding Armstrong. The guy is nothing more than a self serving, back stabbing ex con who has/had a following so who knows what sort of deal he made with TPTB to enrich himself.

    2. Haha, that is hilarious!
      To be fair, the 1200 call was close :-)
      But you're absolutely right about his style of writing, I stopped reading him in 2011.

  9. Love the markets right now. Either buy what enslaves or sickens people or get your ass kicked. Screw em and Armstrong too. Keep buying. There is no price that can be put on freedom. Go to and search treasury mutual fund products. Enter your birth certificate number and see how many treasuries have been issued with you and your assets as collateral. I yield 3.16% today. Stack and stack and stack and stack.

    1. Interesting comment. The only item pledged for US treasuries is American labor. When you have no labor market- you cannot pay your debts- internally or externally.

      That's the state of affairs. We are structurally fucked.

      Ross Perot predicted all of this 20 years ago. He called it the big sucking sound. It's going to be hard to repay our external debts with disability payments.

      And so the market fraud continues...but only for a little while longer.

  10. France plans currency swap line with China: paper

    BEIJING (Reuters) - France intends to set up a currency swap line with China to make Paris a major offshore yuan trading hub in Europe, competing against London, the China Daily on Saturday cited Bank of France Governor Christian Noyer as saying.

    Yuan deposits in Paris amount to 10 billion yuan ($1.6 billion), making it the second largest pool for the Chinese currency in Europe after London. Almost 10 percent of Sino-French trade is settled in yuan, also called the renminbi or RMB, according to French data cited by the official newspaper.

    "The Bank of France has been working on ways to develop a RMB liquidity safety net in the euro area with due consideration of a supporting currency swap agreement with the People's Bank of China," Noyer told the English-language newspaper.

    The yuan's internationalization and bilateral financial cooperation could be among the main topics during French President Francois Hollande's visit to China in late April, the paper said.

    French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius paid a two-day visit to Beijing this week.

    The planned swap line would be the latest in a string of bilateral currency agreements that China has signed in the past three years to promote use of the yuan in trade and investment.

    It followed a similar step by the Bank of England to set up a reciprocal three-year yuan-sterling swap line with China.

  11. C'mon, Dave, don't be such a tease. What is it that your crystal ball(s) see coming this year? You just can't let the cat halfway out of the bag and then boot his ass back into the sack. What is this, a burlesque blog?

    1. LOL. I don't know but it can't be good. I'm sure we have another, bigger financial collapse coming. 2008 was a de facto collapse that was papered over with a few trillion but nothing was fixed. All they did was kick the can down the road.

      Cyprus may be the event that re-lit the fuse

  12. I would just like to address one point. Anyonlmous post says it does not matter what happens to gold and silver .you never want to sell. I simply don not subscribe to that view. One would like a return on investment at some point ......
    At present we are seeing clear metrics that would have deflation present....and there are elements of food inflation. Something will give but if you subsribe to some views there is going to be deflation followed by material inflation (hyperinfaltion?). Right now deflation is certainly there ...and even with the money printing...........but wait there more ( the kitchen knife bonus deal to come )

  13. How people treat you is their kharma,and how you react is your kharma.Yes anybody with half a brain knows that those asshole american politicians and that bald-headed goofy fed robot are getting JP Morgan and all their other bankster criminal buddies to unload tons of their paper bullshit to bring down the price of the metals.Well,it's illegal.Just like insider trading,drug money laundering,derivitive manipulation,stock market fraud,but they know they are getting away with it.So metal bulls get mad,and scared,ofcourse,but,you know what?.Long term patience always wins the war.Everybody around the world hates those filthy american politicians,{except Ron Paul,Bernie Sanders},and central banks are just thieves.So those pricks win a few early battles with the element of surprise,but patience and wisdom always win the war.6000 years of history prove fiat will crumble and metals will rule.let's join allied forces and visualize the day when those criminals get back what they gave because the law of attraction will make it so.he's right..go enjoy the week-end.

  14. Dave, I wonder why the cartel attacked gold and silver on Friday. The 5% price movements were simply historic. In the past, we only had such big movements after a decent bull run or when the stock markets were selling off. Even in 2008, 5% movements in gold price were also rare. Friday's sell-off was out of nowhere. I found it to be quite mind-boggling. Any thoughts?

  15. We would get 4-5% movements in 2002-2003. It's just gold was not on the radar screen back then, very few were in the market and a $20 move $400 isn't as dramatic as an $80 move on $1600.

    Friday's sell-off was a combo of technical - hedge funds piling into the short side and chasing momentum lower and a coordinated intervention by the Fed.

    In July 2008, they bombed silver on a Sunday evening. About a month later Lehman collapsed and that led to TARP/QE. Dunno what's coming toward us but it won't be pretty.

    1. It'll be pretty, all right. Pretty ugly.

    2. Hi Dave, this article will explain why the gold market tanked on friday. The Fed must be really worried about something. Also China and France agreed to a currency swap line. France wants to be the clearing center of Europe for the Yuan. Link to gold market article.

  16. Andrew Maguire

  17. Former Portuguese Prime Minister Says "Portugal Cannot Pay Its Debts", Calls for "Argentine-Style Default"

    Soares says "Portugal Cannot Pay Its Debts". He calls for an "Argentine-Style Default", and states "The desire please chancellor Merkel is ruining the country."

  18. Likely Friday's was because of this--remember, this would have been known by all the higher-ups at least a few days before this. These reckless bastards and their psychotic liar frontmen/pimps will end up blowing up everything:

    A more subtle approach was taken by Treasury with regard to Switzerland and its currency peg. In prior reports, the Treasury has said that Switzerland should return to a true floating rate, but only when "Conditions in Europe have been stabilized". The latest report omits this language. The clear suggestion is that Switzerland should normalize its exchange controls sooner versus later.

    Does this refer to the Swiss who in 2011 pegged their franc to the Euro?

    BTW another strange coincidence is that Lew magically cancelled his Tuesday next meeting with the French FinMin.
    So, wassssup??

  19. How the Gold Market was Crashed

    And then the attack began. Wave after wave of selling until gold got to 1525. Then they break down the price below the two year low and all the stops that have been accumulating there start getting tripped up and the selling accelerates as it begins to feed on itself. The physical market for gold sees this as a gift and gets ready to make their move and buy up the gold.

    Now comes the part that is pure genius or a total coincidental thing that just so happens to be a gift to those who are short the market and those who would be responsible to deliver gold should the inventory deplete.


    The screens all freeze.

    What does that mean?

    No one can get to the physical market to buy at these low prices but at the same time, they can’t sell or protect their position either. The system is frozen. Yes, just like at Bit-coin. The system locks up. And of course the results are going to be the same, just on a lower percentage level.

    What can the physical holders do?

    Meanwhile the futures market continues to drop.

    So what happens? The physical market holders begin to panic. How can they protect themselves as they can’t sell either?

    What would I do if I were in that situation?

    There is only one solution, especially during a panic. Short and ask questions later.

    Therefore it is my speculation that based on 350,000 contracts sold on Friday and the massive drop, some of those contracts was the physical market having no choice but to enter into the futures markets and in order to hedge their physical position holdings, sell contracts or short the market. It’s either that or wait until Monday and be subject to potentially heavy losses should margin calls go out over the weekend. With no time to think and survival instinct kicking in, the physical holders most likely did what they could to protect themselves. They went in and shorted the futures market.

    From there the market goes into a free fall as the physical market can’t buy at these low prices because the computer system is down; they can only sell futures to hedge their long physical holdings and so they do what they have to and begin selling futures.

  20. Just Another Day At The G-S Corral

    Given the anonymous nature of these trades and the utter lack of any regulatory oversight, what’s to stop a single entity from being both the seller and buyer of these futures contracts, especially if shell companies are used to further conceal the identities of the parties? In such a case, the only thing that actually has to be transferred is a small fee to the operator of the exchange, “hush money,” since the exchange operators are every bit as culpable as the principals in manipulating these markets. Otherwise, no physical metal or cash needs to be exchanged; only a simple accounting entry has to be made in the books of the seller and buyer. And when the contract expires, the can seller offer to settle in cash, which the buyer would accept (since they’re the same party) and both parties would simply make another accounting entry canceling out the transaction. Thus, it can appear that metal has been sold, when in fact nothing has been sold or delivered. To add insult to injury, the parties involved might even be able to obtain tax deductions for any expenses or “losses” incurred in the deal!

  21. Dig deeper....

    Cypriot Bailout Linked to Gas Potential

    In the end, it’s all about gas and the race to the finish line to develop massive Mediterranean discoveries. Cyprus has found itself right in the middle of this geopolitical game in which its gas potential is a tool in a showdown between Russia and the European Union.

    Gas finds in the Mediterranean and particularly across the Levant Basin—home to Israel’s Leviathan and Tamar fields—could be the answer to Russian gas hegemony in Europe. The question is: How much does Cyprus count in this equation? A lot.

    -Sicilian Gold

  22. Here's another link:

    Desperate for bailout, Cyprus plays risky geopolitical game

    -Sicilian Gold

  23. And one more:

    Cyprus is sitting on a natural gas gold mine

    -Sicilian Gold

  24. Yesterday my online bullion dealer stopped taking any further orders until Monday because of unprecedented demand and price volatility. I've never seen this happen before. I assumed I could keep buying my gold sovereigns if the price kept dropping, now I'm not so sure.

  25. I'm a bullish on gold but we still gonna get spanked for a few more hunnert down. just the way momo is gonna take it.

  26. Great links - everyone. Thanks for your input. If I have time I will try to do a post today that incorporates the great info you all have shared here.



    we are unable to take any further orders

    Il Folletto

  28. Some General Thoughts

    By the way, as an example of what I am saying here, as I am typing these thoughts, the Dow Jones newswire is flashing comments from some of these monetary masters. Get a load of this if you want to see a perfect example of either an ignorant fool of a Central Banker or one who believe his own BS.

    Fed's Evans (Chicago FEd):
    "Fed Actions have been helpful to the economy"
    "Fed making progress of improving the job market"
    "Actual inflation is low"
    "Worries of rising inflation overblown"
    "Monetary policy should be more accommodative"
    and here is the kicker -are you ready....

    "Doesn't see ANYTHING that Suggests FED Causing Imbalances"


    Here is a perfect example of the blind leading the blind. A stock market soaring to new heights almost day after day while the poverty rate in the nation is back to where it was in the 1960's, 43-44 million people on food stamps, 14 million on some form of government disability, a shrinking labor participation rate which is the only thing driving down the farcical unemployment number and a job creation rate that is not even keeping up with the rate of the growth of the population in general... Nope - no imbalance here. Everything is just peachy keen! Idiot....

    Think that is not enough? here is another one:

    Kocherlakota (Minneapolis Fed):
    "Doesn't see signs FED fueling Asset Bubbles"

    Here is yet one more (and all of this is taking place on one day, A Saturday at that).

    BOE's Miles:
    "Asset buying not creating asset bubbles in UK".

    Do you see a pattern here? Let me tell you what this means. It means the EXACT OPPOSITE of what these talking heads are out there parroting! Anytime you see a public official denying something, rest assured it is true. The fact that they feel so compelled to go out and talk about this denying these bubbles that they are blowing is because this is what the thinking is becoming. They are using the oldest line in the book of manipulating public opinion:

    "Who are you going to believe, us or your own lying eyes?"

    Who do these alchemists think that they are fooling at this point? They are doing the only thing that they know how to do and that is to turn paper (lots of it) into money. These demi gods of finance consider themselves to be infallible assessors of their own handiwork much like the one true God who when He had created, rested on the seventh day, surveyed His handiwork and called it good. In His case, it was true. In their case, it is an opiate that solves nothing but merely continues to foster the speculative mania that results from basically free money and NO RISK when it comes to buying stocks.

    "Nations are not ruined by one act of violence, but gradually and in an almost imperceptible manner by the depreciation of their circulating currency, through excessive quantity."
    -Nicholas Copernicus, 1525

  29. Here Is What You Must Know About The Gold & Silver Smash

    There is a tendency to personalize events. However, a robber does not hit the victim over the head to indicate dislike for that person. It is a robbery. It is about taking that person’s money or other valuable items. The purpose of Friday’s mugging was not to send a message. It was about confiscating wealth through fear, and it worked beautifully. Untold billions of real wealth were forcibly transferred to concentrated positions at certain institutions and countries through this act of financial terrorism. It is not personal. It is simply about taking your wealth.

  30. Dave,

    Pretty good interview with Rick Rule from Sprott. Nothing really revelating but still interesting.


  31. Rules Would Require Defectors to Inform Clients of Signing Bonuses, Easy Loans. Securities regulators are widely expected to start forcing stockbrokers who get big bucks when they defect to another firm to tell their clients.

    those assets will stay right where they want them.

  32. New kid on the block: Corporate titans

    Palm Beach County real estate investor Chip Bryan added 35 homes to his expanding cache in the first 60 days of the year. Backed by a private equity fund, he’s in buy, hold and rent mode. And he’s in a hurry.

    Bryan’s competition is America’s financial masterminds, corporate behemoths who have set their sights on Florida as Wall Street buys up Main Street.

    Another twist in the nation’s evolving housing market has hedge funds and multi-billion dollar companies becoming the landlords of the future, snapping up discounted single-family homes to rent out as they’ve done in the past with commercial properties and multi-family apartments.

    It’s been just a year since a spontaneous comment by billionaire Warren Buffett ignited the corporate world’s home-buying spree. But already the New York-based Blackstone Group has 20,000 homes nationwide, including 4,000 in Florida.

    Canada’s Tricon Capital, working with Lake Success Rentals, claims a bounty of 1,500 homes in South Florida and North Carolina. Colony Capital, based in Santa Monica, Calif., just announced its intention to buy 1,000 South Florida homes with a $2 billion nationwide investment.

    One of the more aggressive buyers in South Florida is the Connecticut-based Starwood Property Trust. Despite having “no news to share” when contacted by The Palm Beach Post for this story, the company has picked up more than 80 Palm Beach County homes at foreclosure auction since it began buying in late November.

    “This business used to be a subculture of deal makers and opportunists, mostly Realtors and contractors,” said Bryan, managing partner of Boca Raton-based Rebound Residential. “Then Wall Street arrived.”

    the credit to do anything is narrowly channeled....the Michelangelo's of the world are in finance you like their art works?

  33. Bill Cara's Blog for Apr 15, 2013

    I think the motivation is clear.

    This morning on financial TV, I heard one talking head state that gold was going to continue to drop because QE is working, but I don't see the major economic improvement. The massive injections have kept things going, but simply look at the employment situation which is not improving. Last week, I posed the basic question; why are central banks printing money on a scale never seen before and why are they accelerating that strategy? The talking head needs to answer that question before stating that we are in a "new normal". History does repeat and the central bank tactics will end as they always have before - inflating money supply leads to inflating prices and bubbles.

    The fundamentals for gold continue to improve, yet price drops. When will it bottom?

    Time cycles:

  34. This is getting scary -7.50% atm. Gosh, what are "they" planning. This feels terrible, and no media talking about it. Hang on to your gold �� I'm planning to buy some more...
    Take care!

  35. Dave, a selfish request please. Can you please give your thoughts on what is going on? This is flat out scaring me. The spot price continues to tumble. My mining shares are down 50-80%. It seems no one knows when the bloodbath will stop and when there might be any recovery. I flat out do not trust so many people/sites out there. King World News is just hype central no matter what is going on, the newsletter writers are just out to get more subscribers, and the amateurs out there have no clue what is going on. To put it simply, I trust your opinion more than anyone else because you aren't trying to make a name for yourself, you aren't looking for more traffic on your website (so don't make stuff up), and you are selling anything. Sorry for this rant but I feel helpless since I don't know anyone that invests in PMs in person, and this is just scaring/depressing me like no other!

    1. Thanks for your vote of confidence in my view - I certainly was early on my bottom call.

      I agree KWN has a lot b.s. on there, but today's Maguire post about why they orchestrated this takedown is legitimate. My partner and I dissected it for quite some time today and what Maguire says is consistent with a lot of other observations we've had over the past 8 weeks.

      Regardless, your reaction of fear is what they are trying to do. Ultimately, just like in 2008, they are trying to "reset" the value of gold and silver vs. the dollar ahead of something drastic coming our way and ahead of whatever the next drastic measure is they have to employ to prevent a collapse.

      Recall in 2008 that they took silver down from $18 - under $14 in the illquid Sunday night access market on July 13th. Ultimately they drove silver down below $9 briefly that summer. That action preceded the bankruptcy of Lehman/AIG/FRE/FNM and the massive TARP used to keep the banks from collapsing. QE commenced about 4 months after TARP was employed, along with other Fed liquidity measures.

      My point here is that this sell-off won't last much longer because the physical market will force a big upward price adjustment. Most the big coin dealers are out of eagles/maple leafs. The ones that have them are offering them at spot +$6 plus delivery costs.

      At some point big industrial/jewelry users will go onto Comex and demand delivery.

      In 2008, the HUI was taken down from 485 to 150. It doubled after the late October low that year in two months. Ultimately the takedown to 150 preceded the 3yr run to 635 or wherever it peaked in 2011. We'll see a move like that only bigger this time around.

    2. Hold on tight to your positions. If you are on margin, at least take yourself off margin. DO NOT SELL any of your physical gold/silver under any circumstances. That is really what "they" are after. Anyone who only owns paper money/investments and is going to get seriously fucked when the shit coming our way hits the fan.

    3. Hi Dave, you seem to have poor memory these days. The take-down in 2008 was on August 14 not July 13. And they nuked silver from $14.18 to $12.38.

    4. I can't find it on my RJO software but there was a SUnday night access hit that took silver down over $4 at one point from a Friday close of $18 and change. I remember it vividly, although I don't remember the exact calendar date, because I remember being in out in the back yard and I went and checked my computer around 5:30 p.m. Denver time and silver was already down $3 and I emailed some colleagues to see if it was in error...

    5. "Hold on tight to your positions. If you are on margin, at least take yourself off margin. DO NOT SELL any of your physical gold/silver under any circumstances. That is really what "they" are after."

      That is EXACTLY what is happening. get people discourage and sell off their PM's. I still would like to see if any US Businesses holding cash are buying any physical PM's. If I was running a corporation, I would want some security besides paper currencies to weather any future global storms but I haven't seen any reports out.

  36. Michael JacksonMonday, 15 April, 2013

    "Nevada once again has the highest foreclosure-related activity rate in the nation after nearly a yearlong break, according to a new report by national foreclosure tracker RealtyTrac.

    One in every 306 homes in the state had at least one foreclosure-related filing in March, according to RealtyTrac. Filings include notices of default, notices of trustee sale and bank repossessions.

    The last time Nevada held the top spot in the nation was April 2012, with one in every 300 home distressed.

    While bank repossessions decreased to almost 700 in March, the majority of activity was in default notices or foreclosure starts, which are the first step in the process. The state recorded 2,188 starts last month, compared to 1,343 in April 2012, according to RealtyTrac."

    All the people involved in this "smoke-and-mirrors" act know what they are doing. The problem is that we don't and we can call them idiots as much as we like but they know what they are doing - somehow they will save their necks while axe ours.

  37. Thanks MJ. Once I get caught up on processing this big takedown in the metals market, I'm writing a big update on the housing market and that article will fit in nicely. Housing is rolling over big time

  38. If they really are trying to deal with the fractional gold scam then we can expect the main focus to on the derivatives. The rainbows which have been rolled over were priced on a maximum Au price of $1,000 and a minimum USDX price of 92. First they have to drive Au below $1,000 call a default in London and the States which will fix the price forever at a figure below $1,000. Then they have to say collapse Europe and drive the USDX over 92 and at that point they can ring out the contracts on their original pricing (just).

  39. Question about mining shares. If there is a disconnect between the paper and physical markets, shouldn't the miners be performing better since their business revolves around what they can sell their physical for? I can understand GLD and SLV falling faster than the "real" price of physical gold and silver, but why would mining shares be hit so hard?

  40. Arizona Becomes Second State to Approve Gold and Silver as Legal Tender

    “Yeah, I know gold is down right now,” Arizona State Senator Chester Crandell and sponsor of Senate bill 1439, tells The Daily Ticker. “People are still buying gold and using it as a commodity and I think they want to use it as actual legal tender instead of the dollar."

    Senator Crandell says that the differences between gold as a commodity and gold as legal tender are pronounced.

    “I think there’s a different comparison when you trade it as a commodity or when you use it as actual monetary value," he says. A return to the gold standard, he believes, will relieve volatility in the gold market.

    The bill will also eliminate a capital gains tax liability associated with an increase in the value of gold. Making gold a legal tender eliminates the commodities tax at a state level.

  41. Tom McClellan on Tax Receipts

    April 11, 2013
    The April 15 income tax filing deadline is just a few days away, so I thought it would be appropriate to take a look at what tax collections have been doing lately. With the federal tax rate increases for 2013 now taking effect, it is not too surprising to see total federal tax receipts rising. The top individual income tax rate rose back up to 39.6%, and the individual Social Security payroll contribution (AKA FICA) returned to 6.2% after being at 4.2% for 2011 and 2012. That latter one means that most wage earners are seeing 2 additional percentage points of their wages claimed by Uncle Sam. 2% does not sound like much, but remember that a jump from paying 4.2% to 6.2% is actually a 48% increase. For the 12 months ending in March 2013, total federal receipts from all sources amounted to 16.2% of GDP. That’s well short of the 18% collection rate which guarantees a recession, but it is rising sharply from recent values. The fact that it is still well short of federal spending at 21.9% of GDP is important, but that’s a subject for another time.
    msm pushing receipts as recovery in bloom...maybe not

  42. The gold price crash is further evidence of market rigging

    The facts in the public domain do not justify the sharp fall in the gold price over the past two trading days. At the time of writing, the price per 100oz is $1363, down over $200 since Friday's open. The scale of the sell-off was the worst in 30 years, with the volatility index standing at the highest level in its history. John Kemp at Reuters has calculated that based on a normal distribution, you would expect to see movements like Monday's only once in every 500 million trading days, or two million years. The news which would justify such a price swing is curiously absent – in fact, my view is that the market ought to be bullish for gold. Something doesn't add up.

  43. Do you know something about this, Dave?

    Il Folletto

    1. Nothing. Interesting. Not surprising though.

  44. Excellent article 15th explains a lot.
    Timeline chart of 2008 & 2011 seismic events & POG behavior.

    OK, article looked at POG behavior, but look at this--Does this look mutant to anyone?:$SPX:$GOLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=t52832769235&r=1366129571644

    I can't find anything that remotely scary anywhere, not even in 2008. 7 sigma at least.$SPX:$GOLD&p=D&st=2008-04-01&en=2009-04-08&i=t15179121842&r=1366133613555

  45. Interesting site from someone who has had dealings with Martin Armstrong & warns what a sick smug con artist he is:

    He's a narcissist, a fantacist, a flake and an ingrate totally lacking in conscience, grace or shame. He'll subvert any situation to his own narrow self-interest all the while sucking the life blood out of all unfortunate enough to be drawn into or happening into his orbit. Its time this oxygen thief and pathological liar is exposed convincingly once and for all.

    1. There ya go. Confirms his behavior from the time that Sinclair helped spring him early from jail to now

  46. Imagine Bernanke going on national TV and saying the following:

    “I would like to inform the American people that we are bankrupt. We have been hoping to maintain confidence in our system by artificially suppressing rates by buying up bonds with money we printed from nothing. We hope that by keeping rates low, we can create another illusory speculative boom and kick the debt can down the road for another administration to take the blame for. I have no clue what I’m doing- after all, I’m the one who thought subprime was “contained.”"

    Yea right. Our leaders are going to spend like drunken sailors until the entire house of cards comes crumbling down. I’m telling you, the evidence is staring you in the face. Gold is your only insurance.

    1. LOL. He's leaving in 8 months. That fat ugly woman who's replacing him - Janet Yellen - can do that

    2. Easy Dave, your cutting deep. That woman looks like my wife. It takes a lot of eating time to develop that table muscle, A.K.A. stomach.

  47. Trust went bust.........

    Why Are Small Investors Still Buying Gold? A Psychology Lesson

    So why this massive discrepancy between physical and paper? It could be that the physical market is lagging, and will eventually sell off as well. But there is much evidence that this is not the case. When Malcom Self, owner of Southland Coins, pulled his monthly records since 2008, he found that his precious metal sales have risen eightfold in five years. This week, as banks and other big investors were panic selling, his customers were taking advantage of the price dip to buy more. Physical gold is still available, but physical silver in particular, which appeals to smaller investors because it is more accessibly priced and has industrial uses as well as precious metal value can take a month or more to reach the hands of buyers.

    The reason for the demand, according to Malcolm, is that, “People don’t trust the government; they want to own physical stuff because they are not convinced that anything on paper is going to be of value. Besides gold and silver, there aren’t many things you can hold onto that will store value over time”.

    Clearly, people are afraid. Since the turn of the century they have seen the dot com market collapse, followed eight years later by the worst market crash and recession in living memory, where even cars and homes were taken away. They simply don’t trust the recovery. Banks around the world are continuing to flood the global economy with money and, although all the metrics of inflation have been quiet, how could this not be an inflationary environment?

    Physically owning something alleviates that fear of potential loss. Through the lens of human behavior, this is explained by the “endowment effect.” A 2007 study shows the difference between being told you own something, versus being in physical possession of it. Overwhelmingly, subjects placed far more value on goods in their possession. This is because for thousands of years, possession meant ownership. It’s a relatively recent phenomenon where a piece of paper conveyed ownership and, psychologically, in times of perceived risk, we default to possession of valued objects.

    The buying of physical gold and silver reflects fear for an uncertain future, AND a disbelief of the government narrative that all is well and the worst is over. Recently, I asked my father why, when gold was banned by executive order 6102 in 1933, everyone gave it up voluntarily. His reply was telling: “Everyone trusted the government to do what was right to help us.”

    My how times have changed! A recent Pew research center poll showed that only 26% of American trusted the government to do what was right– close to an all-time low. Suffice it to say that few Americans would be willing to part with their gold this time around.

  48. The fact that years and years and years of global gold production can be sold into the market as naked shorts, driving the "price to or below the cost of production and that this fiasco passes as price discovery only represents how absolutely and summarily f***ed we are. Thank-you big brother, can I have another?

    Thanks Dave, keep up the great blog!

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  50. I think there’s a different comparison when you trade it as a commodity or when you use it as actual monetary value," he says. A return to the gold standard, he believes, will relieve volatility in the gold market.

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