I'm sure by now everyone has seen the reported plunge in housing starts and housing permits on Tuesday. Single-family housing starts declined for the fourth month in a row. I have been expressing the view for a few months now, and backing the view up with copious amounts of evidence, that the housing market is getting ready to tank - and tank hard. Incidentally and anecdotally, just in the past couple of weeks I've noticed a literal avalanche of "for sale" signs all around central Denver.
And more economic data was released on Monday which further reinforces my contention that entire economy is in a serious decline. In fact, based on several recent economic reports, it's probably safe to say that the GDP, on a real, inflation-adjusted basis, is now retracting - i.e. we're in a recession. As John Williams of Shadowstats.com explains:
Underlying economic reality remains much weaker than Fed projections. As actual economic conditions gain broader recognition, market sentiment should shift quickly towards no imminent end to QE3, and then to expansion of QE3. The markets and the Fed are stuck with underlying economic reality, and, eventually, they will have to recognize same. Business activity remains in continued and deepening trouble.Seeking Alpha has published my latest analysis of the economy and the reasons I claim that the economy is back in recession: Negative GDP and No Taper Coming
Please note that to measure real GDP, I'm using the latest reported annualized CPI as calculated by the Government. In fact, the true inflation rate is significantly higher, which means that real GDP is in serious contraction.
Don't act shocked when the Fed announces even more QE before the end of the year...