The Golden Truth: Existing Home Sales For September: The Real Decline Is Worse Than The Headline Reports

Thursday, October 24, 2013

Existing Home Sales For September: The Real Decline Is Worse Than The Headline Reports

The National Association of Realtors released its report on September existing home sales on Monday this week, which showed that on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis existing home sales dropped 1.9%. However, a look behind the "adjusted" numbers shows a much bigger decline in existing home sales and a housing market that is fundamentally in trouble.

In fact, quite frankly there's quite a bit of misleading information that has been communicated to investors and observers via the headline reports and the television media sound-bytes. Not only is the market for existing home sales now in decline - independent of seasonal factors - but prices are also starting to decline.

I review the data beneath the headlines and analyze the implications in this article published by Seeking Alpha: LINK

What's even more interesting is that the Government is getting ready to roll out new mortgage market regulations which will tighten the clamps on underwriting standards and decrease the availability of mortgage financing to large segments of the population as well as reduce the capability and willingness of mortgage brokers/bankers to finance riskier mortgage applicants.

I will be publishing more on this soon.

5 comments:

AnonymousFriday, 25 October, 2013
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Half of nation's foreclosed homes still occupied
By Les Christie | CNNMoney.com – Thu, Oct 24, 2013 4:17 AM EDT.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/half-nations-foreclosed-homes-still-080600535.html

Foreclosure sounds like the end of the line, but actual eviction can take months or years -- even after the bank has repossessed a home.

RealtyTrac estimates that 47% of the nation's foreclosed homes are currently occupied. The percentage actually tops 60% in some hot housing markets, like Miami and Los Angeles.

Those still living in repossessed homes include both former owners and renters. Either way, their time in the homes is mortgage and rent free.

To arrive at its estimate, RealtyTrac compared its database of foreclosed homes with postal records showing whether mail was still being collected and whether change-of-address forms had been filed.

Even when occupants leave voluntarily, old owners typically take about two months to vacate.

With renters, it can take a year or more. "If someone has a bona fide rental agreement, we have to abide by that," said Amy Bonitatibus, a spokeswoman for JP Morgan Chase.

One issue, according to Wells Fargo spokesman Tom Goyda, is that the eviction process can take months as it winds through the legal process. The timing varies widely based on local laws and the backlog of cases in individual courts.

Goyda said the bank has been trying to speed up the process by offering cash to prompt occupants to leave.

In addition, some states, like Alabama and Utah, have so-called redemption periods of up to a year during which former owners can get their home back if they can find the means to pay off their mortgages.

And banks may be in no rush to kick people out. They will take their time in markets with a lot of homes for sale and depressed prices. Plus, letting homeowners stick around can help protect homes from abuse.

"Although one thinks lenders take losses by not moving evictions forward, they're still faring better by keeping the properties occupied," said Pauliana Lara of the Consumer Action Law Group in Los Angeles, which works with homeowners to fight foreclosures. "Many foreclosed homes get vandalized or squatters move in."
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AnonymousFriday, 25 October, 2013
Expert: JPMorgan's $13 Billion Fine Should Have Been 22 Times Bigger

The historic deal is a sign that the Obama administration's crackdown on Wall Street is finally gaining steam. But experts note that the $13 billion fine—which seems a gargantuan amount—is not nearly enough. First, the fine is really only $9 billion, says William Black, an associate professor of economics and law at the University of Missouri-Kansas City and a former bank regulator who led investigations of the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s. The $4 billion in relief to homeowners, he explains, represents loan modifications that the bank would have made in any event to minimize losses and avoid foreclosures. (And that $9 million, he adds, is tax-deductible.) Second, Black says, the total damages JPMorgan, Washington Mutual, and Bear Stearns inflicted directly on purchasers of the shoddy mortgage-backed securities is estimated to be $100 billion. "The normal rule in terms of remedies for frauds of this scope," he says, "is that you pay for your damages that you caused." And if those damages were caused by fraud as opposed to mere negligence, Black adds, the US legal system often makes the fraudster pay punitive damages of at least twice that amount. "A normal recovery would be in the range of $200 billion," he says.

http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2013/10/jpmorgan-chase-13-billion-settlement-justice-department
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AnonymousFriday, 25 October, 2013
The Danger of American Fascism

The American fascist would prefer not to use violence. His method is to poison the channels of public information. With a fascist the problem is never how best to present the truth to the public but how best to use the news to deceive the public into giving the fascist and his group more money or more power.

http://newdeal.feri.org/wallace/haw23.htm

And this guy never viewed todays MSM.
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AnonymousFriday, 25 October, 2013
George Soros Backs 'Ready For Hillary' PAC

Just in case you didn't realize Hillary is bought and paid for.

“George Soros is delighted to join more than one million Americans in supporting Ready for Hillary,” said Michael Vachon, Soros’s political director, in a statement. “His support for Ready for Hillary is an extension of his long-held belief in the power of grassroots organizing.”

Soros will co-chair the PAC's national finance council.

http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2013/10/george-soros-backs-ready-for-hillary-pac.html
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Michael JacksonFriday, 25 October, 2013
Posted in one of the comments on your article:

Las Vegas Real Estate Market Update (October 2013)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8ZOAfRbOXE

at 12:21, it gets interesting.
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Add comment

Why Gold?

Gold is the world's oldest currency. You exchange your fiat currency (dollars, euros, yen, yuan) into gold as an insurance policy against catastrophic Central Bank and Government policies which serve to destroy the value of fiat currencies and destroy democracy.

Gold can ONLY be considered an investment to the extent that it remains significantly and historically undervalued in relation to the fiat currencies against which its value is measured. Otherwise it remains the world's oldest currency and is completely free from the counterparty risk associated with currency by Government fiat (i.e. fiat currencies rely on a Government's "full faith and credit.")

Quote Of The Month Courtesy of "Jesse"

Unfortunately for Larry Summers, Ben Bernanke, and their friends at the BIS, they have not yet figured out how to print physical gold, silver, and other essential commodities, and the world is reaching the point where it might simply start ignoring the New York based markets with respect to essential commodities such as basic materials, oil, foodstuffs, and the like, as they become increasingly irrelevant, fraudulent, and Orwellian. And then where will the financial engineers be, except with no more excuses and no place to hide?

Here is the link to his entire commentary, well worth a read:

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/07/gold-daily-chart-shock-and-awe-for.html

Great Quote From Jim Rogers On Govt CPI Reporting

JR: I mean, we have inflation now. If you go to the shop, whether it’s groceries, or education or insurance or health care, prices are going up for everything. The government lies about it in the US. Some countries lie, many countries don’t: Australia, China, India and Norway. Many countries don’t lie about it and acknowledge that we have inflation. Others lie about it, the UK and the US, but if you go shopping you know prices are up.

Q: Are you saying that the American Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is a lie?

JR: In my opinion, yes, of course it is. Have you looked at it? They’ve changed their accounting several times in the past few decades. When housing was 20% to 25% of the CPI and housing was going up, they didn’t count it, saying rents weren’t going up, and then when home prices started going down, they counted it. It’s the same with many things. It’s staggering some of the tortuous reasoning that the BLS has used over the past 25 or 30 years. When the price of gasoline goes up, they say it’s not really going up because it’s better gasoline, better quality, therefore you’re getting more for your money. I mean, it’s endless, the stuff that they say and for some reason people sit there, although more and more people are catching on, and accept what the government says.

source: www.clusterstock.com

Quote of the Week

"The primary function of a Central Bank is to engage in the massive transfer of wealth from the middle class to the wealthy elite. The Federal Reserve was set up to do this with the blessing and support of Congress." - Dave in Denver

If you refuse to believe the above, please read "The Creature From Jekyll Island: A Second Look at the Federal Reserve" by G. Edward Griffin and then explain to me why the Senate voted down the Vitter Amendment and Congress refuses to pass a law requiring a full audit of the Fed, even though the Fed is using taxpayer-backed money to bailout Wall Street and Europe.