I was looking forward to the week's trek into Sunday's Super Bowl, but I'm already fatigued and disgusted with the media spectacle this week has become. I don't really care what Petyon Manning listens to in his car on his way to the playing field and I'm bored senseless with the anticipation of Richard Sherman uttering something absurd.
I have Denver winning by 10 again. Jim Rome has Denver winning by three touchdowns but he's overlooking the fact that Denver's defensive coordinator, Jack Del Rio likes to take a big lead in the fourth quarter and turn it into a nail-biting race to time expiring. In both playoff games his defense held San Diego and New England to a combined 3 total points nearly halfway through the 4th quarter of each game. Then he switches into that moronic "prevent" defense that coaches like to use to prevent their team from putting away games or even winning.
Even though Denver will win, that defense Jack Del Rio uses in the 4th quarter leads to a victory that's the equivalent of Warren Buffet declaring "victory" when he removes his Depends and goes half a day without soiling himself.
I base my 10-point margin on two "X" factors being overlooked by every game analyst. The first one is Champ Bailey. Lost in the spotlight shining on Seattle's Richard Sherman is likely first-ballot Hall Of Fame inductee, Champ Bailey. When Richard Sherman can say that he's gone to 12 Pro Bowls in 15 years, then I'll have some respect for him.
He's not the same Champ as five or six years ago, but he's missed most of the season due to a nagging foot injury and now he's back at 100% and has fresh legs. You didn't hear his name much against New England, which is a good thing because it means he was shutting down his receiver assignment in man-to-man coverage. "Smart" doesn't get old. That means Denver has two "lock-down" cornerbacks - the other is Dominque Rogers-Cromartie - which enables Denver to focus on stopping the run. They held San Diego and New England both to under 70 yards rushing.
The other "X" factor is something that I won't reveal until after the game. It's not a player and it's not a weather-related factor. If anyone wants to email me with what they think it is, I'll acknowledge correct answers. It is something that this year's team has in common with Denver's two back-to-back Super Bowl wins and it isn't John Elway...
Tuesday, January 28, 2014
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Not correct since it is a player, but last time broncos won the Super Bowl another bulldog from Georgia was running the ball.
ReplyDeleteTrue and true. Although expect Moreno and the Badger, Montee Ball to split carries.
DeleteMost handicappers worth their salt had Seattle favored by 2 points...which is where it opened before the dumb Denver money flooded in. Seattle +2.5 has a 60% chance of being a winner. Considering how wrong you have been this year on your calls, I take great solace in my Seattle bet getting 2.5 points. I remember this same song and dance when the Colts were giving the Saints 5.5 points. I had that game as a pick 'em - but $80 million of dumb money pushed it to Colts -5.5.....and the rest is history. The dog has come in something like 7 of the last 10 Superbowls. Dumb money is to thank for that. Maybe Denver will win but the chances are less than 50% for sure. Why take the short side? You let your heart get in the way of the odds.
ReplyDeleteHuh? I called a blow-out of San Diego, which it was until Del Rio went into "dumb" mode defense. I called Denver by 10 over the Pats.
DeleteNot letting my heart get in the way. I call 'em as I see 'em and I see Denver as a 10 pt. better team on a neutral ground.
I didn't see those two predictions but saw plenty of other bad ones last year and early this year. Also, when you say stuff like "which it was UNTIL..." you lose credibility. Game is over when the clock reads zero. Doesn't matter how it happened to get there, games go back and forth.
DeleteHow do you arrive at Denver -10 on a neutral field, besides just pulling that number out of your hat? I'd like to hear your handicapping method.
Tell you what, I'll take Seattle +10 for $1000 at -200.....if Denver wins by more than 10 you win $2000. If Denver wins by less that 10 or they lose, you owe me a dime.
You also said to take Denver laying points when they went to Indy - and they lost the game outright. That's one bad call that comes to mind. There have been others. Now, I know when gambling you can't be right all the time but a good handicapper shoots for 55% to 58%, which is fantastic in the NFL. You are below 50% from the previous calls I've seen.
DeleteMay I steer you here as well - to show you how it's done
http://cretincountry.blogspot.com/2010/02/why-i-love-saints-getting-points.html
The sooner this football shit stops the sooner the heads and brains survive. The injuries are getting to be too much to bear. These poor bastards are taking it on the head, literally.
ReplyDeleteWho care who wins, nobody wins.
Off the topic. Dave, what do you think about Jim Willie? He does have a fairly accurate prediction record. But his statements are often hard to believe. For example, according to his latest interview on SilverDoctors, every month 1000 tonnes of gold is shipped from the West to the East. However, the delivery at Shanghai Gold Exchange doesn't seem to support this.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.silverdoctors.com/jim-willie-2/
I don't know where he gets the 1000 tonne number. That sounds ludicrous. However China isn't the only country loading up on gold. Don't forget, India, Viet Nam, Russia, Thailand, Turkey etc.
DeleteI stopped reading JW several years ago. I think a lot of his info is good but I also think a lot of it is "hearsay" and speculation.
I just hope for a great close game and no bad calls by the referees that could change the tempo or outcome of the game. Unlike the CFTC and SEC and ill gotten gains of our favorite banksters.
ReplyDeleteSeattle has a tendency of swiping defeat from the jaws of victory, so I think the teams are even when it comes to the 4th quarter performance. Been thinking about calling Seattle the new Kardiac Kids (of cleveland browns 1980 fame).
I'm betting this game goes into overtime, it's snowing during the 4th quarter and the game will be decided by a field goal.
Dave,
ReplyDeleteI fell your pain on that prevent defense which prevents a field goal and gives up a TD. Parcells used to drive me crazy with that in the 80's when he was with the Giants. I can't tell you how many games were lost or almost lost that came right down to the wire where they were ahead by seven points or under with two minutes or so left in the game.
As much as I hate saying this as Denver should have rightfully been in the big game last year and have far more weapons on offense but I just have a hunch about Seattle, they just seem to have that moxy or mojo going but if they can't bring pressure with a four man rush it will be a long day for the Seattle defense.
As a neutral fan I just hope it's a close entertaining game.
Ken
denver wins a close one. Now, if the ref's give it to them like the pitt seattle superbowl, then its a blowout. Seattle is nasty on defensive, seattle only has to rush 3 guys to limit manning. Sheman will shutdown Mannings go to guy, Thomas, one on one. Reason watch Avrill, he's the one that will stop manning from using julius thomas, underneath, as he will have to help block, to contain him. close game, but don't be surprised if Manning gets hurt. then Seattle wins.
ReplyDeleteAs an ex Longmont resident that moved to NE, I would say your "X" factor is Hemoglobin. Going from mile high to MSL the blod has the ability to hold more O2.
ReplyDeleteGo Broncos!!
So what was that X factor? That Manning sucks? It's 22-0 at halftime. Lucky you didn't take my bet! Now the smart thing to do for me is lay 6 points for the second half on Denver. Can't lose now. Good handicapping beats betting with your heart any day of the week.
ReplyDeleteWell that was a massacre. What were the X factors? I'm curious to hear
ReplyDelete