Friday, December 30, 2011

Bubble/No Bubble - And Happy 2012

I don't know that it happens right away, but I think the "snap-back" move we get in the sector will shock a lot of people, even long-time metals and mining stock participants.
I have never ever in close to 30 years of observing, studying and participating in all aspects of the financial markets seen an investment opportunity in which the fundamentals that support the undervaluation of an investment sector permeate every aspect of the system AND in which these fundamentals are right out in the open for everyone to examine - and yet, the same fundamentals and evidence are ignored by the vast majority of investors and analysts. It's beyond stunning. It's also the unequivocal exact opposite of the conditions that would support the view that the precious metals sector is in a bubble. Right? When a sector is in a bubble you have almost EVERYONE in every part of the investment universe looking for literally insane reasons to justify paying a ridiculous valuation level for a stock/asset. "Clicks and eyeballs?" Please.  Facebook is a bubble. In fact, we are several factors removed from even thinking about the term "bubble" or "perma-bull" in connection with the precious metals sector. The facts and evidence just do not support the assertion, not the least of which is the FACT that less than 10% of the investment universe has ANY money invested in the metals sector. But that will change over time and the price levels we are evaluating for gold/silver/mining stocks today will be a mere fraction of the level at which these investments will be trading once the term "bubble" can be justifiably discussed in connection with this sector.

I was on a blog yesterday linked by a commenter that referred to James Turk and John Embry as "perma bulls." So I started thinking about that in the context of the technology/internet and finance sector perma-bull phenomenon that has littered CNBC etc for most of the last 12 years. There is a significant difference: the perma-bullishness we saw during the internet/housing/finance bubble was NEVER NEVER NEVER supported by justifiable fundamentals. Remember "clicks and eyeballs?" Ask Clusterstock's Henry Blodget about that because that was his mental masturbatory slogan. There were never any real true economic fundamentals underpinning any of the actual investment bubbles that destroyed our system. Moreover, the valuations became insane. There were internet stocks trading with $10 billion market caps that never had one dime of revenue or owned balance sheet assets that could be logically valued. What the hell is "intellectual" capital? And banks? If we were to apply the accounting standards that were used 30 years ago, every too big to fail bank would be reporting millions in losses every quarter and would have a balance sheet net worth that goes negative by 100's of millions. I've done that latter exercise and have posted the proof on this blog. What we see on CNBC is perma-bullishness.

But we don't get to see the Turks and Embrys on CNBC. The media does not want the masses to start thinking about the Truth. And the "truth" is that the fundamentals underpinning the precious metals as "value" investments would be a Ben Graham wet dream. Not only that, but the true fundamentals, if thoroughly analyzed and understood, would dictate that every money manager and investor out there should dump all of their tech and banking stocks and move everything into the metals and mining stocks. That's how undervalued the precious metals sector is in relation to the fundamentals. And I'm not going to run down the list. Sort through this blog and every other website that discusses these issues ad nauseum. Is the fact that Embry and Turk are willing to stake their reputation by continuously pounding the table on the sector mean they are perma-bulls?  It would but ONLY if the fundamentals did not justify the assertions. 
Gold has in no way topped. The gold reaction per day in terms of percentage was nothing whatsoever. We have in no way reached the level called “thrilling with bullish bliss” common of a top. Every dollar we have won has been paid for in blood. All the short of gold wunderkin Masters of the Universe will have to be destroyed before gold is fully priced. The community, if you can still call it that, is in a psychotic episode that is soon to end.  - Jim Sinclair
Love him or hate him, Sinclair has been as right as anyone in calling the path of the precious metals bull.  And although I believe his public price target for gold is too conservative, as it has been over the past 10 years, he's playing the high probability part of the game as he learned it from his father's friend, Jesse Livermore.  Sinclair's public target for now is $4500.  He will be wrong, but only because he is too low.  His level is 99.9% certain.  If gold goes beyond that level, we will not care how high it goes because it also means that life has gotten to be quite painful.

I'm taking the bus and you will not see me at the pancake social tomorrow!

On that cheery note, I thought I would leave you all with what I think is the funniest commercial this holiday season.  I started thinking about this ad playing tennis yesterday and I dropped 5 straight games after going up 2-0.  (I won 7-6 in a tiebreak lol):


  1. wanna compare them (Turk and Embry) to the perma bears who, err, kind of missed a 6x rally in gold from 2000? And are now calling for the end of the bull in PM?

    When we ourselves headed towards balancing our federal and state budgets I would head out of PM.

    Just for "fun" let's say Ron Paul was elected, what effect would that have on PM, and knowing that the chances of his being elected are one thing (improving as people get pissed off) and having a cooperating Congress yet another.

  2. Court OKs immunity for telecoms in wiretap case

  3. PS--ya all have a great safe New Years

    -complete and utter corruption -
    Dave, you are right, stop trading, get physical and hang on for Mr. Toads' wild ride.

  5. All the articles here are good.

    This was one of the best.

    Here's wishing all of you a wonderful New Year.

  6. Grazie mille Proximo! Buon Capo D'Anno a te!

  7. Buon anno Dave ! E felice Anno Nuovo !!


    Milano Italia

    P.S.: "What we see on CNBC is perma-bullishness" ... perma-bullishness OR perma-bullshitness ? THAT IS THE QUESTION ... come direbbe Guglielmo Scuotilancia ...

  8. Richard Russell - We are Watching Market History in Gold

    With mounting fears over the recent plunge in gold and silver and continued volatility in markets globally, the Godfather of newsletter writers, Richard Russell, had this to say in his latest commentary: “This year's close for gold marks the 11th year for higher year end gold closing. To my knowledge this is the longest bull market of any kind in history in which each year's close was above the previous year. This fabulous bull market will not end with a whisper and a fizzle. I continue to believe that the upside gold crescendo of this bull market lies ahead. We are watching market history.”

    Richard Russell continues:

    “I note the frustration and anger of the anti-gold crowd. To miss 12 years of rising prices is enough to make any investor furious with himself. I would guess that 99 percent of Americans have never participated in the gold bull market. Thus, sour grapes is the sentiment of the gold-haters. Happy to say my subscribers who listened to me in the early years of the gold bull market have enjoyed the riches bestowed upon them by the greatest bull market in history.

  9. Paul cites 'shenanigans' with loaned gold

    ATLANTIC, Iowa -- Ron Paul said Thursday that he's eager to find out how much gold the United States really owns.

    A supporter at a town hall meeting asked about Fort Knox: "Would you reveal as president whether there's actually gold there?"

    Here is Paul's full response:

    "Yes, and if I couldn't accomplish that then there's big trouble in this country. I may need to get some help for you. I tried for years to do this. ... I never went to Fort Knox. I made a request when the gold commission came up in the early 1980s. We had a study of the role of gold in the monetary system. There were 17 members, and I couldn't get one other person to endorse the principle that we ought to go to Fort Knox and find out if there's gold.

    Doesn't everyone want to know? maybe not?

    The 'Financial Repression' Trap

    In Capitals Worldwide, Policy Makers Deliberately Obscure Market Prices and Prevent Informed Judgments

    By Kevin M. Warsh
    The Wall Street Journal
    Tuesday, December 6, 2011
    Mr. Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor, is a distinguished visiting fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution and a lecturer at its Graduate School of Business.

  10. James Koutoulas on JPM Boycott, MF Global Failure, ZIRP

    Warren Pollock interviews James Koutoulas CEO of the Commodity Customer Coalition. Were it not for James, MF Global customers would have been totally overrun by an exparte bankruptcy process dominated by JP Morgan and the SIPC. This breaking interview covers important issues regarding JP Morgan's refusal to address concerns regarding its conduct as custodian of MF Global segregated house, their role in lowballing MF Global customers with a 40c offer on the dollar, with their fingers all over the bankruptcy, head of creditors committee, preferential purchases of LME stock, the ability to flip assets of MF Global without competitive bid.

  11. Why Do GOP Bosses Fear Ron Paul?

    DUBUQUE: Ron Paul represents the ideology that Republican insiders most fear: conservatism.

    Not the corrupt, inside-the-beltway construct that goes by that name, but actual conservatism.

    And if he wins the Iowa Republican Caucus vote on January 3—a real, though far from certain, prospect—the party bosses will have to do everything in their power to prevent Paul from reasserting the values of the “old-right” Republicans who once stood, steadily and without apology, in opposition to wars of whim and assaults on individual liberty.

    The party’s amen corner in the media is doing its part. Republican-insider radio and television programs have begun to go after Paul, the veteran congressman from Texas who is either leading or near the top in recent polls of likely caucus goers. Rush Limbaugh ridicules Paul on his radio show, while Sean Hannity’s Fox show has become a nightly Paul-bashing fest, with guests like former Education Secretary Bill Bennett trashing the congressman with lines like: “his notion of foreign policy is impossible.”

    When the threat of increased US involvement in Vietnam arose in the early 1960s, the elder Buffett wrote in William F. Buckley’s National Review: “When the American government conscripts a boy to go 10,000 miles to the jungles of Asia without a declaration of war by Congress (as required by the Constitution) what freedom is safe at home? Surely, profits of U.S. Steel or your private property are not more sacred than a young man’s right to life.”

  12. Interview with Rick Santelli 12-29-2011

  13. For those of you who haven't come across FOFOA - his new post points to Aristotle again. The surprise is that he is about to return. So I re-read some "Ari" posts as pointed to by FOFOA.

    The following on the COMEX is very very pertinent today and the action is exactly as described in his posts...


  14. Money Saved at Misdiagnosed Vets' Expense

    NEW HAVEN (CN) - The Vietnam Veterans of America says the Pentagon has "systematically and wrongfully discharged" more than 22,000 veterans since 2001 "on the basis of so-called 'personality disorder'" - rather than post-traumatic stress disorder - to deny them medical care and save the Pentagon $12.5 billion in medical and disability payments.
    "The military classifies PD [personality disorder] as a condition pre-existing military service," the four plaintiff chapters of the Vietnam Veterans of America say in their federal complaint against the Department of Defense and the Department of Homeland Security.
    "Veterans discharged from the military on the basis of a PD diagnosis are not entitled to receive service-connected disability benefits or VA health care.

    "By discharging over 22,000 service members on the basis of PD, DoD saved the military approximately $4.5 billion in medical care and $8 billion in disability compensation that these service members would have received had they been discharged on the basis of Post-traumatic Stress Disorder ('PTSD') or another service-connected disability."

  15. Are Brokerage Accounts Safe?

    You'll still be subject to problems if the insurer can't make good on claims, notes Mr. Kotok. If you're willing to put up with the hassle of managing multiple accounts, or if your brokerage doesn't offer supplemental SIPC coverage, make sure to get an account for each $500,000 chunk of assets you hold, he says. Also, open "cash" accounts that opt out of margin agreements, he says, because such accounts restrict what brokers can do with the money.

  16. Progressives and the Ron Paul fallacies

    Whatever else one wants to say, it is indisputably true that Ron Paul is the only political figure with any sort of a national platform — certainly the only major presidential candidate in either party — who advocates policy views on issues that liberals and progressives have long flamboyantly claimed are both compelling and crucial. The converse is equally true: the candidate supported by liberals and progressives and for whom most will vote — Barack Obama — advocates views on these issues (indeed, has taken action on these issues) that liberals and progressives have long claimed to find repellent, even evil.

    The fallacy in this reasoning is glaring. The candidate supported by progressives — President Obama — himself holds heinous views on a slew of critical issues and himself has done heinous things with the power he has been vested. He has slaughtered civilians — Muslim children by the dozens — not once or twice, but continuously in numerous nations with drones, cluster bombs and other forms of attack. He has sought to overturn a global ban on cluster bombs. He has institutionalized the power of Presidents — in secret and with no checks — to target American citizens for assassination-by-CIA, far from any battlefield. He has waged an unprecedented war against whistleblowers, the protection of which was once a liberal shibboleth. He rendered permanently irrelevant the War Powers Resolution, a crown jewel in the list of post-Vietnam liberal accomplishments, and thus enshrined the power of Presidents to wage war even in the face of a Congressional vote against it. His obsession with secrecy is so extreme that it has become darkly laughable in its manifestations, and he even worked to amend the Freedom of Information Act (another crown jewel of liberal legislative successes) when compliance became inconvenient.

    He has entrenched for a generation the once-reviled, once-radical Bush/Cheney Terrorism powers of indefinite detention, military commissions, and the state secret privilege as a weapon to immunize political leaders from the rule of law. He has shielded Bush era criminals from every last form of accountability. He has vigorously prosecuted the cruel and supremely racist War on Drugs, including those parts he vowed during the campaign to relinquish — a war which devastates minority communities and encages and converts into felons huge numbers of minority youth for no good reason. He has empowered thieving bankers through the Wall Street bailout, Fed secrecy, efforts to shield mortgage defrauders from prosecution, and the appointment of an endless roster of former Goldman, Sachs executives and lobbyists. He’s brought the nation to a full-on Cold War and a covert hot war with Iran, on the brink of far greater hostilities. He has made the U.S. as subservient as ever to the destructive agenda of the right-wing Israeli government. His support for some of the Arab world’s most repressive regimes is as strong as ever.

    His nomination would mean that it is the Republican candidate — not the Democrat — who would be the anti-war, pro-due-process, pro-transparency, anti-Fed, anti-Wall-Street-bailout, anti-Drug-War advocate (which is why some neocons are expressly arguing they’d vote for Obama over Paul). Is it really hard to see why Democrats hate his candidacy and anyone who touts its benefits?

    UPDATE: Also, President Obama today signed the NDAA and its indefinite detention provisions into law (a law which Paul vehemently opposed); the ACLU statement — explaining that “President Obama’s action today is a blight on his legacy because he will forever be known as the president who signed indefinite detention without charge or trial into law” and “Any hope that the Obama administration would roll back the constitutional excesses of George Bush in the war on terror was extinguished today”

  17. Ooh look...20% correction...last day of year and the new york times has a story on fred selling his jewelry....bottom?

    Time to Sell the Gold

    I promised to return with some more pieces; what I didn’t say was that I would take each item to at least three stores before selling. Just like Christie’s, I was running a jewelry auction.

  18. "Not only that, but the true fundamentals, if thoroughly analyzed and understood, would dictate that every money manager and investor out there should dump all of their tech and banking stocks and move everything into the metals and mining stocks.That's how undervalued the precious metals sector is in relation to the fundamentals." Precisely my own sentiments! And yet we really are not dealing with fundamentals, are we?
    it is interesting that the miners are going to come into play with the prospect that the large buyers giving up the futures are now potentially piling into the miners as Sprott advised. With the MF Global being seen increasingly as a spoiler for Au/Ag, as JP Morguen literally hijacks gold, piles on the paper and stampedes the weak hands. Didn't somebody say that M F'ing Global was the "derivatives anchor" for the Morgue? And that the stolen Au was in Morgue vaults. Jim Willie perhaps. Kim the Magnificent just came out on 24 that the Morgue, in a last ditch effort to derail the gold juggernaut, just created one of the most massive selloffs by tanking MF, seizing the Au and transferring it to UK. Smart money is already going to the miners. The over sold trend is about to reverse. Get on Board. We are not really dealing with fundamentals!......Yet.

  19. The Wall Street Journal's Mark Gongloff wrote the following
    article on December 30th:

    Grandich Raises Gold Challenge to $2 Million

  20. GOLD WILL TRADE BETWEEN $3,000 - $5,000 in 2012 & MUCH MORE - Egon von Greyerz:

  21. Mark Ames: Ezra Klein’s shine job on the Kochs

    Anyway, Ezra, here’s a little advice: go back to school. Then go out and get a job. A real job: “Obama Administration waterboy” doesn’t count as a job. Meantime, here’ s a quick study guide that might help you understand why the Kochs really are very, very different:

    From the time they founded the Tea Party in 2009 to today, their wealth shot up from 28 billion to 44 billion, nearly 60 percent;
    They led the campaign against health care;
    The Kochs spend more fighting climate change than anyone or any company in the world;
    The Kochs bankrolled Scott Walker;
    The Kochs wrote Bush’s environmental policies;
    Cato wrote the Republican Congress’s 1995 legislative agenda, acting as the think-tank for Tom DeLay and Dick Armey.
    The Kochs control up to 35,000 miles of pipelines in the US and Canada, enough to circle the globe 1-1/2 times.

    Should I go on?

    No need. That’s a nice list. And it looks like owning a few Congress critters and a “grass roots” movement can have a fantastic ROI! Also, too, Young Ezra was Megan McArdle’s room-mate? What’s up with that?

  22. A Date to Live in Infamy - December 31, 2011

    The US Republic has been officially put to death through the passage of a law outside of news reporting which makes the entire world a battlefield for a dying empire You are now an enemy combatant just because a single person says so even if you are a citizen of The United States of America, in your home, here in your own country. This political trend corresponds to and aligns with our economic trajectory and are in fact the same event. Empires become monetarily impossible to support over time. In the US the only response to change has been the abrogation of law. We law selectively applied in Finance, and we have seen the ideals of constitutional freedom destroyed with the Patriot Act, and confirmed by the National Defense Authorization Act. An act to fund the military was used as a smoke-screen to destroy the republic by voiding the constitution as well as rights to habeas corpus.

  23. Obama Signs Legislation Killing Bill of Rights; Ron Paul, Rand Paul, Rachel Maddow Skewer Obama; Road to Tyranny; Complete List of Senatorial Cowards Backing the Bill

    In 9 Things to Say Goodbye To, I lamented on the loss of privacy and free speech.

    Unfortunately, the situation is much worse, thanks a huge group of senatorial cowards that wrote and passed a "defense" bill that allows US citizens to be arrested, detained, even sent to Guantanamo, Cuba without being charged with any crimes.

  24. A link

    ... to a link


  25. Ron Paul: NDAA Is Very Dangerous

  26. lol...and they would never lead you astray? gold

    The Wife Of Switzerland’s Central Banker Sold Swiss Francs Days Before the Currency Devaluation

    Apparently insider trading for politicians and their family is not limited to the USA….

    My kind of story in the Swiss papers today. I love it when big shot central bankers get their dirty laundry made public.

    Kashya, the wife of Philipp Hildebrand (head of the Swiss National Bank) sold Swiss Francs just a few days before the Swiss National Bank initiated exchange controls and devalued the Franc. The timing of the transactions was nearly perfect. The suggestion is that “pillow talk” between husband and wife lead to the trades.

    Don’t expect heads to roll over this transgression. There has been a complete review by Swiss authorities and the conclusion is that there were no insider trading violations by the wife. That’s not to say that trades did not happen.

    Read more:

  27. Romney’s top contributor: Goldman Sachs,
    Ron Paul’s: US Army

    Obviously Goldman Sachs and company donate heavily to Romney not because they like his stance on the social issues but because he will continue the rigged game of crony capitalism. The revolving door from Wall Street (particularly from Goldman Sachs) to the White House will remain open and Goldman and company will maintain not only their rigged game but their influence.

    In October Milwaukee Story published this article that broke down Romney's pledge to continue US interventionist/first-strike foreign policy. That foreign policy white paper was an additional signal to Wall Street that Romney was a safe bet as an establishment candidate and could be trusted to pull from Washington and Wall Street establishments to fill his cabinet posts.

  28. ready for a police state?

    Photo shows pepper-sprayed prisoner

    "This photo is a picture of a man who is strapped to a chair naked inside a jail for hours with a hood over his face. That evokes thoughts of being tortured," says Cleveland-based lawyer Nick DiCello who represents the Christie family.

    The photo, which was obtained by FOX 13's investigative unit, was taken in the final hours of Christie's life.

    The District 21 Medical Examiner ruled his death was a homicide because he had been restrained and sprayed with pepper sprayed by law enforcement officers. But to this day, nobody has ever been charged with a crime, and the Lee County State Attorney cleared the sheriff's office of any wrong doing.

  29. Show me....the balance sheet?

    Why NO Brokerage Account is Safe - Is Ann Barnhardt Correct?

    Warren bulldog's his own broker by confronting them with critical questions that remain unanswered regarding the risks of Hypothecation and Re-hypothicaion, the validity of money that can never be delivered, the perils of margin account, speculation in shell corporations, assurances of fund segregation. I also talk about the fact that obtaining SIPC coverage may be hit or miss, the same as trying to hit a dart board. The SIPC will not cover all the financial innovation that has crept into stock and brokerage accounts; it also will not cover pervasive fraud in ETF and derivatives instruments. Warren talks about his foreign currency holdings being non-deliverable; as such he has to question whether or not these fund exist.

  30. Tonight’s Iowa Vote Count To Take Place At Secret Location

    Tonight’s final vote tally for the Iowa caucuses will take place at a secret undisclosed location, an announcement that has stoked fears of vote fraud amongst Ron Paul supporters, concerns that were heightened following a Republican insider’s claim that the GOP establishment will not allow Paul to win.

    The final Iowa vote count normally takes place at state party headquarters in Des Moines, but following dubious “security concerns” about Occupy protesters disrupting the tabulation process, the Republican Party of Iowa announced that it would be moving the final vote count to a secret undisclosed location.

    The move occurred despite Occupy protest leaders confirming there were no plans to disrupt the caucuses themselves.

  31. The Ministry of Propaganda Declares Ron Paul "Unelectable" (January 3, 2012)

    The Ministry of Propaganda has chosen to suppress the only dangerous-to-the-Power Elites candidate by declaring him "unelectable."

    The Status Quo's Ministry of Propaganda has a single political task for 2012: eliminate the sole threat to the Status Quo (Ron Paul) from the running, leaving voters with a "choice" of clueless stooges for the Power Elite.

    That roster includes President Obama and the daytime-TV/soap-opera field of Republicrat contenders.

    The Ministry of Propaganda has settled on a ludicrous strategy to eliminate Ron Paul: declare Paul "unelectable."
    What all the candidates but Ron Paul dare not acknowledge because it isn't on the approved Ministry of Propaganda script is that the Status Quo is heading off a cliff at the direct behest of the nation's Power Elite. The only candidate that has "the vision thing" and that clearly enunciates exactly how the Power Elite's policies have led the nation off a cliff of insolvency and Imperial hubris is Ron Paul.

    For this sin against the Status Quo and its Power Elite, Paul has been excommunicated, and the (pardon my language) smarmy army of corporate media whores cannot declare him "unelectable" often enough.

    That is proof that he is highly electable, for otherwise the Ministry of Propaganda wouldn't be running a campaign of such transparent desperation.

  32. Chris Hedges: “Brace yourself. The American Empire is Over, and the Descent is Going to be Horrifying.”

  33. MF Global sold assets to Goldman before collapse: sources

    - MF Global unloaded hundreds of millions of dollars' worth of
    securities to Goldman Sachs in the days leading up to its collapse,
    according to two former MF Global employees with direct knowledge of the
    transactions. But it did not immediately receive payment from its
    clearing firm and lender, JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), one of the sources said.

  34. A Petition to Support the Saving American Democracy Amendment

    Sen. Bernie Sanders has proposed a constitutional amendment that would overturn the Supreme Court decision in a case called Citizens United vs. FEC.

    The Saving American Democracy Amendment states that:

    •Corporations are not persons with constitutional rights equal to real people.
    •Corporations are subject to regulation by the people.
    •Corporations may not make campaign contributions or any election expenditures.
    •Congress and states have the power to regulate campaign finances.

  35. Meet the Mainstream Press

    Nothing is more emblematic of the mainstream media (MSM) than NBC’s “Meet the Press.” I wonder if it should be renamed “Meet the Corporate Mainstream Press” because that is exactly what it was on Sunday. Before the first vote was cast, Sunday’s panel anointed Mitt Romney as the Republican candidate to face Barack Obama this fall. I really wonder why we have caucuses or primaries at all. We should all just watch TV and let shows like “Meet the Press” tell us what’s good for us. The word pompous comes to mind when I see them in action, and last night, Ron Paul showed them how little they know what America really wants by finishing just a few percentage points behind the Romney.

  36. BLATANT Ron Paul CENSORSHIP by CNN of Soldier Supporting Ron Paul's Foreign Policy!