Wednesday, October 2, 2013

September Auto Sales And ADP Payroll Report Confirm The Economy Is Tanking

I have to say, Barack Obama is probably the biggest political sell-out in the history of the United States.  Anyone who voted for him and still supports what he is doing is either tragically brain damaged or pathetically naive.  That's not to say the Republicans are a better alternative but Obama sold out his supporters like  plantation slaves in the 1800's.
Yesterday's auto sales report for September - led by GM's 11% plunge in sales and incredible bloating up of dealer inventory levels - confirms my view that the economy is tanking.  Today's ADP (Automatic Data Processing, Inc) Payroll report for September further confirms, as today's payroll report was nothing short of disaster, with a big miss of the consensus estimate AND the two previous month's reports revised downward sharply.  The dollar has lost the 80 level.  The world isn't buying into the story being reported in the media by Wall Street and the President that the economy is improving.

I review this data plus three other observations in this article:  September Auto Sales/Tanking Economy.

I further expect that housing sales will follow auto sales lower.  September home sales data will start coming in three weeks.


  1. Jobs Report Won’t Be Released Oct. 4 If U.S. Government Shut

    I bet this will include unemployment numbers and bad retail sales as well. anything to hide months of negative GDP.

  2. Very good article, Dave. I really liked the gambling data for the State of Nevada and plan to share it with everyone. Nevada depends on two major sources for revenue: Mining and Gambling. The mines are laying off miners right now. The other is gambling. With the largest unemployment nationwide and incompetent leaders interested only in their political power and party, I really do predict that this whole state will declare bankruptcy and be insolvent and will be the first. Right now, it's only cities but a major fire is bound to hit the fan soon. This State is not going to be able to pay its bill and it's not a "too-big-to-fail" state like kalifornia.

  3. Economist: U.S. labor market recovery is a fraud

    If payroll job growth were to persist at the average level of the past three jobs reports and increase at just 148,000 jobs per month, it would take until December 2021 for employment to reach its CBO estimated potential, he added.

    In his 2013 third-quarter U.S. forecast, Snaith explains that by just focusing on the unemployment rate, many analysts erroneously are predicting a fast recovery that’s simply not there yet.

    That’s why it’s not surprising that consumers are holding back on spending, which in the past has brought the economy out of the doldrums, he said.

    Snaith was only one of four national economists to predict that the federal Reserve Bank would continue to funnel billions of dollars into the market on a daily basis as a way to help stimulate the economy and not begin tapering that process until 2014.

    “Will the Federal Reserve’s exit be more like Ginger Rogers gliding across the dance floor or Miley Cyrus awkwardly twerking remains to be seen,” Snaith said. “But given the phony labor-market recovery it could be some time before the Fed hits the dance floor.”

    poor guy ,,,by speaking the truth....he'll hurt his career.

  4. Dave as I remember you favored William Kaye. He hit a dinger with his prediction for the metals drop in price for the first of the month. Credible individuals such as He and your analysis keep me checking in on the golden truth.


  5. Dave, still about the collateral in the OTC market.
    According to the information on the LCH website, agency bonds like MBS issued by the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are acceptable forms of collateral although there is a small haircut.
    Why does the Fed have to use QE to buy agency bonds from banks in order to inject cash for the margin requirements? Why don't the banks use the agency bonds on their balance sheets as collateral for margin requirement directly? If the QE is to keep banks solvent, it seems a bit superfluous in my opinion.
    Off the topic. You mentioned Maria Bartiromo was so nuts about the guy that she shaved his initials "M.P." into her pubic hair. You even said "I know this story is true." I'm just curious how you managed to know that? Did you have any affairs with Maria Bartiromo? Why her? Beckie Quick is a much better than Maria, mate.

    1. Come on. Becky Quick looks like Howdy-Doody in drag.

  6. Dave works as a paparazzo in his spare time...

  7. Silk Road (kill) Inflation-Deflation Labor Value Obamacare

    Published on Oct 2, 2013

    Youtube killed the first release of this video, this is the second release.. I talk about the shutdown of the Silk Road after reading the full text of the arrest warrant.. The US Government (NSA) has been a major user of that service as part of a jobs program in homeland security. The Silk Road has been allowed to operate by them for a long time; The Feds have a full copy of the Silk Road servers which they studied for months and months and, they spawned many transactions. "Dread Pirate Roberts" was caught because he used his own service! to order fake ID's via the mail. (I have not seen a single article that speaks to this point!). Nothing on the internet or in the physical world is secure from surveillance, NOTHING! You and I are allowed to be free based on the whim of the security state. This trend will continue as our inflation and deflation problems morph into deeper deflation. I explain the two simultaneous undercurrents now underway in response to a Bloomberg missive that got things entirely wrong! Some of my perceptions regarding the cost of the Obamacare tax are now being realized when people try to sign up for "free healthcare" only to get an expensive tax somewhere between $7500 to $12000! I mention the government shutdown with an eye to a reboot of the system based on needs.

    reduce your foot print....

    1. Back in 2007, thinking on "cloud computing", a voice popped up im my mind, "get back to DOS". I thought it was silly. DOS is a standalone system, back in the days of using a modem to dial into a board. But slowly those words are ringing true. However, how does one create an anti-cloud that can still connect with others and with security. It wouldn't operate on the Internet so it would have to use some other form of signal that can't be detected.

  8. Man... I really liked the gambling data for Nevada... In my honest opinion this State is not going to be able to pay its bill.

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    1. Most States can't pay their bills. Tax revenues from medical marijuana sales are saving Colorado's ass.

      I saw a report that showed a massive amount of vacant housing (single and mulit-family) in the Las Vegas area that was not listed for sale. I think that's a common occurrence across all the big bubble areas. I know for a fact that banks are witholding a massive number of REO properties that are either vacant or are being occupied by families not paying their mortgage.