Wednesday, December 4, 2013

New Home Sales: Time For A Reality Check

If "cynicism" is a view of reality and truth, then "hope" is nothing but fantasy and faith  - Dave in Denver...
Most of you have seen or will see the media headlines broadcasting a big October for new home sales.  But as is normally the case with numbers put together, manipulated and released by the U.S. Government, the report is full of serious flaws.  Not only that, but if you really dig deeply into the actual monthly numbers and also consider the extreme degree of downward revisions that have been applied since at least July, the new home sales report is downright ugly.  And that's not cynicism, it's fact.

It just so happens that I did the above analysis and laid out the data, facts and source citations in this article just published:  Today's New Home Sales Report Is Very Bearish.

Please note that the stock market agrees with my take on the numbers, as the Dow Jones Homebuilder Index is down 1.5% right now and 2.3% from its initial spike after the report hit the tape.  Furthermore, the stock market, after a big spike higher on the new homes report, is now down 10 pts as measured by the S&P 500 futures contract (front month) and 1% from its high of the day.

Be careful out there with your investments in the stock market.  We are witnessing a bubble in stocks that exceeds the one in 1999 that led to the collapse in early 2000.   I will note that the dollar has taken a big turn down today and gold and silver are having their best day in several weeks, with silver up over 4% and gold up 2.2%.  Something ain't right out there behind the scenes.
...The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it - George Bernard Shaw


  1. This entire rigged Ponzi fraud is winding down. We go warp speed after the new year. Get out of Banks and brokerage accounts now. I would rather be out early then wishing I was out later.

    1. bank depositors in america are going to be "unsecured creditors" of the bank starting jan. 1st 2014. scroll down/listen to

      oct. 24 the first half hour. the heavy part

      is at about 15min. into it for the next 3 mins. your money is legally

      the banks money starting jan. 1st 2014 as per the dodd frank act.

      also see this aptly titled "take your money out of the bank" the fed is insolvent...... keep your money in the bank for what good reason?

  2. Shadow Government

    Published on Dec 3, 2013

    All about Gattica and the Shadow Government.

  3. Obamacare and Stalinism
    By Peter Morici

    Eventually project overseer Jeffrey Zients will have this monster fulfilling all its functions, but likely it will be a balky, frustrating website, much like other federal websites or those run by private firms enjoying monopoly power.

    Health insurance will be right up there with dealing with tax filing. Bureaucrats will have easy access to sensitive personal data, which Obama administration political moles can use to target, harass and sometimes destroy critics, and simply occupy millions of hours of citizens' time that could be used more productively.

    Welcome to statism - the ants of capitalism herded into a bureaucratic hell to serve the masters of a grander design.

    All this aside, let's look at the list of promises that will remain unkept when the website is fully repaired, no matter how well it may run:
    If you like your insurance, you can keep it;
    If you like your doctor, you can keep him;
    If you need help finding the coverage you need, we will make it easy;
    And by organizing the healthcare market under the guiding hand of the omnipotent state, we will make insurance cheaper.

  4. Dave, Enjoyed the SA article riddled with facts and logical conclusions but the sand is so much warmer and comfy. Plus I like being a team player rather than a cynic.


  5. Rome burns while the 1% party on $15k a plate dinners and Photo opps

    The next morning, Air Force One headed to San Francisco, where he gave a speech about immigration in the city’s Chinatown before resuming the money push.

    About 400 people, some dressed in tuxedos and cocktail dresses despite the 1:30 p.m. hour, awaited Obama at the SFJAZZ Center for a DNC event. They’d paid $500 to $15,000 to be there, the higher prices buying access to presidential handshakes and photographs. Singer Esperanza Spalding entertained the younger crowd.

    $15K a plate, my how very Republican of him...

    PARTY OF THE PEOPLE my ass...

    1. Hope and Change in reality translates to Grope and Chains as far as this terms president's concerned

      fools ,fools ,fools - all who bought into the lies which are so obviously making the masses slaves for the system .

      If you want freedom from this giant lying machine then get real security for yourself and your loved ones - the 1 %'rs already have , Accumulate some precious physical gold and silver and create true hope and change.

  6. LOL! What will be interesting is if/when the U.S. institutes a similar policy on all the hot foreign money pouring into U.S. real estate. Looks like London has already run out of money from their tax base....

    1. Real estate taxes are going higher for everyone but that's a good point about the money-laundering foreigners who are buying high-end properties here.

  7. Good article, Dave. I agree that November did hit a wall and December will follow. BBC already have reported that this 4-day black friday sales dipped first time in 7 years.

    This was according to the National Retail Federation. You also have to factor in the pre-black friday sale that took place before this 4-day event.

    federal unemployment insurance is not being extended for 1.3 millions and they will lose all income 3 days after christmas. I think uncertainity is going to grow to a point that some group on the stock market will get panicky and cause the crash. Once the "herd" gets going, they will be no stopping it.

  8. In the second half, Max interviews Ned Naylor Leyland of Quilter Cheviot Asset Management about the latest on the German and UK investigations into the manipulation of the gold fix. They look at infinite rehypothecation in the London Dustbin and the exit of Bart Chilton from the CFTC as the pin-up girl for silver price manipulation.

  9. Norman Rockwell painting fetches record-breaking $46 million at Sotheby’s auction
    The Saturday Evening Post illustrator's masterpiece "Saying Grace" sold for more than any American artwork at auction. Two people bid against each other for nine minutes over the phone before the sale was made.

    Read more:

  10. Is BlackRock too big to fail?

    FORTUNE -- Hark. Do you hear it? That sound of ringing bells coming from the nation's capital as we enter the holiday season? Is it Salvation Army Santas taking to the street corners? Church campaniles playing "Carol of the Bells?" Or maybe angels getting their wings a la the Christmas classic It's a Wonderful Life?

    Nope. It's the ka-ching of K Street lobbyists ringing up the billable hours as they pile into the newest industry battle against financial reform. I am speaking of nascent efforts to regulate the multi-trillion dollar asset management industry. This war promises to be even bigger than the one megabanks have waged against the Volcker rule's proposed ban on speculative trading.

    The shot heard 'round the beltway was a seemingly innocuous report by a government research group called, appropriately, the Office of Financial Research or "OFR." The OFR was created by the Dodd-Frank financial reform law to -- among other things -- conduct and sponsor research related to "financial stability." That seems reasonable after the 2008 financial crisis nearly brought down the world economy.

    The OFR was asked by its parent agency, a group of major financial regulatory heads called the Financial Stability Oversight Council or "FSOC," to look at potential risks associated with asset managers. These entities -- which include mutual funds, private equity and hedge funds, as well as the asset management divisions of insurance companies and banks -- collectively control about $53 trillion of assets. Ten firms each individually control over $1 trillion in assets with the largest, by far, being BlackRock (BLK), which manages $4.1 trillion.

  11. Rare Signal – Producer Merchants Net Long Gold Futures - See more at:

  12. You may enjoy this Dave ...

    Luxury Real Estate Foreclosures Up 61 Percent

    It appears the rich are finally catching up with the rest of the nation, when it comes to real estate foreclosures.

    While overall U.S. foreclosure activity was reportedly down 23 percent, year-to-date through October, RealtyTrac says foreclosures on luxury properties valued at $5 million and above jumped 61 percent compared to the same time period a year ago.

  13. Another Batch of Wall Street Villains Freed on Technicality By Matt Taibbi Read more:

    "Of course, you won't hear about the recent financial corruption case, United States of America v. Carollo, Goldberg and Grimm, called anything like that . . . But this just completed trial in downtown New York . . . allowed federal prosecutors to make public for the first time the astonishing inner workings of the reigning American crime syndicate, which now operates not out of Little Italy and Las Vegas, but out of Wall Street."

    Dominick Carollo, Steven Goldberg and Peter Grimm were mid-level players who worked for GE Capital. They were involved in a wide-ranging scheme (one that also involved most of America's biggest banks, from Chase to BOA to Wachovia) to skim billions of dollars from America's cities and towns by rigging the auctions banks set up to help towns earn the highest returns on the management of municipal bond issues.

    The case was over 10 years in the making and involved offenses that took place long before the 2008 crash. All three defendants were convicted in May 2012, with Goldberg ultimately getting four years and the other two getting three.

    Now, they're all free. A New York federal judge last week ordered their convictions overturned in a quiet Thanksgiving-week transaction.

    As one antitrust lawyer I know put it: "Apparently, the government can't seem to get criminal trials involving financial executives (as opposed to, well, drug dealers) right. Go figure."

    In this case, the defendants were shielded by the sheer complexity of the case. It would appear that the state took so long sorting through the mountains of recorded conversations and interviews to find the massive but well-camouflaged crime – these men, along with others like them in other banks, were using code words to rig the auction process so that banks and finance companies could collude and bid lower for city and town money management business – that the statute of limitations ran out on their own individual actions. When that happened, the Feds then switched up and charged them with different crimes related to what they claimed was an ongoing conspiracy, using continuing interest payments to establish the "ongoing" part of the indictment.

    Read more:

  14. Citigroup and JPMorgan Settle With EU Commission for Rigging Libor; U.S. Justice Department Stays Mum

    Today, JPMorgan and Citigroup have admitted participating in the Yen Libor financial derivatives cartel to the European Commission and accepted fines of €79.8m ($108.3 million) and €70m ($95 million), respectively. Citigroup avoided paying an additional €55m ($74.6 million) by being granted full immunity for one of its three charged infringements, ostensibly for its cooperation in the matter.

    The European Commission began its investigation just two years ago, on October 18, 2011. The settlement announced today encompasses the rigging of two benchmarks, Yen Libor and its European equivalent, Euribor, in an effort by the financial institutions to make profits in the financial derivatives linked to those benchmarks.

    Joaquín Almunia, the European Commission Vice President in charge of competition policy, said: “What is shocking about the Libor and Euribor scandals is not only the manipulation of benchmarks, which is being tackled by financial regulators worldwide, but also the collusion between banks who are supposed to be competing with each other. Today’s decision sends a clear message that the Commission is determined to fight and sanction these cartels in the financial sector. Healthy competition and transparency are crucial for financial markets to work properly, at the service of the real economy rather than the interests of a few.”

    JPMorgan, Crédit Agricole, and HSBC refused to admit to and settle charges that they participated in the rigging of Euribor. According to the European Commission, that investigation against the three will continue.

    As lawsuits by municipalities across America pile up in the courts, the question on everyone’s mind is: “why isn’t the Justice Department bringing charges against U.S. banks”?

  15. "Cheque is an instrument in writing containing an unconditional order, addressed to a banker, sign by the person who has deposited money with the banker, requiring him to pay on demand a certain sum of money only to or to the order of certain person or to the bearer of instrument."
    order bank checks