Is Larry Yun Intentionally Making A Joke Out Of The Bad Housing Data?

But the most brilliant propagandist technique will yield no success unless one fundamental principle is borne in mind constantly and with unflagging attention. It must confine itself to a few points and repeat them over and over. Here, as so often in this world, persistence is the first and most important requirement for success.  - Adolph Hitler, "Mein Kampf"

Seriously, is National Association of Realtors chief economist, Larry Yun, trying to make a joke out of using the "bad weather" excuse for poor housing market sales?

As I have shown repeatedly, the poor housing market sales results are a direct result, for many fundamental reasons, of the demand-side of the market falling away.  In fact, RealtyTrac just released a report yesterday that showed institutional investor purchases of homes fell to its lowest level in January since March 2012:  LINK  That has nothing to do with the weather in any part of the country.

However, I have provided links in previous articles that show that, on average across the country, the weather during January was about the same as it has been over the last 10 years.  In fact, in California it was warmer than normal. 

So why is Larry Yun insistent upon shoving the "bad weather" narrative down our throats every time the NAR releases a negative housing market report.  For instance, just today, the NAR released its Pending Home Sales index for January.  It actually showed a slight uptick for January from December but was below what was expected by analysts.  So what does Larry have to say:  "Ongoing disruptive weather patterns in much of the U.S. inhibited home shopping"  (LINK).

Well, let's cut to the chase.  What really happened according the NAR data?  For sake of simplicity, here's a graphic pictorial of the distribution of the NAR data for January from Zerohedge:

 

(click on graph to enlarge)

Now, from what we know about the weather patterns across the country, California/the West was warmer than normal, the Northeast and the South were about average with a few extreme bad weather days  and the Midwest was also about average with some unusually cold days sprinkled in.  

So how come the biggest drop in pending home sales occurred in the area where the weather was warmer than usual and the areas that might have been affected by the weather show gains for January?

The only conclusion I can draw is one of three possibilities:   1) Larry is tragically stupid;  2) Larry is a pathological liar; or 3)  Larry is making a joke out of the fact that the housing market is beginning to collapse.

Larry, if you happen to see this, please either leave a comment or respond with your explanation to my email as to why your statement about the weather is so obviously wrong.  I encourage everyone to send this blog post to the NAR and maybe they can issue an explanation other than putting out the above blueprint from "Mein Kampf."

The Silent Scream Of The Plunging $/Yuan: A Derivatives Bomb Detonated

Anyone who denies that the Fed is engaging in unprecedented intervention in all of the markets - especially the gold and silver markets - is guilty of either ignorance or willfully intentional denial.  But the Chinese can play the intervention game as well.  We are seeing that giant footprint of intervention in the dollar/yuan relationship, as the Chinese yuan has just experienced it biggest weekly plunge ever:

Briefly, this graph (edits in white/red are mine) shows the $/yuan relationship.  It plots the amount of Chinese yuan needed to buy one U.S. dollar. When the ratio declines, it means the yuan is increasing in value vs. the dollar.  As you can see, there has been a steady decline in the $/yuan ratio, which means that Chinese Government has been letting the yuan rise in value.  That is, until about a week ago.

What most market observers tend to overlook is that there are likely $10's of billions worth of OTC derivatives that have been issued by the big Too Big To Fail banks tied to the trading relationship between the $/yuan. In fact, Morgan Stanley estimates the amount to be at least $150 billion:  $/yuan Derivatives Bomb Detonated?.  They also show a table in that link which estimates possible losses to the banks if this is the case to be well in excess of $1 billion.  Morgan Stanley should know, it was one of the biggest beneficiaries of the 2008-2009 Bush/Obama bailout of Wall Street.  MS also has one of the highest net exposures as a percent of bank capital to derivatives accidents.

In my view, that spike up in the $/yuan you see in the chart above has probably triggered a massive derivatives "explosion" because typically, in their keen foresight and wisdom, the bank rocket scientists never account for the risk of a big move like the one above in a such a short period of time.  If they were to price in this possibility, the derivatives contracts upon which they make $10's of millions in selling profits would be too expensive and the banks would miss out on that easy income.   But hey, we haven't seen a move like that in the history of the $/yuan contract so why should the banks ever expect it to happen?  And the Fed and Government has their back if they're wrong.

Of course, this was same Nobel Prize winning wisdom that cause the Long Term Capital collapse and bailout (remember that one?) and that caused - more catastrophically - the 2008 collapse of the U.S. financial system (AIG/Goldman) and the subsequent joint Republican/Democrat 100% approved taxpayer bailout.

Many analysts are wondering why the Chinese Government, which has a tight control over the trading level of the $/yuan, has enabled the above spike up to occur.  If you think about the ramifications of what I just laid out above, it leads to one possibility (hint: think about the big blow that was just delivered to western bank balance sheets if I'm right about a behind the scenes derivatives accident having just occurred).

I see this as another big cruise missile just fired by China in the global currency war.  The first big missile being the massive accumulation of gold by the Chinese (as has been documented ad nauseum).  There's also another benefit to the Chinese.  Think about the massive size of China's dollar reserves.   The dollar has just become significantly more valuable vs. the yuan and so has the value of China's dollar reserves.  This gives China more buying power to buy gold using dollars.

One other point, and this is tied to China's ultimate goal:  to unload its massive hoard of dollar reserves while making as little noise about it as possible.  Last night, a few hours after the yuan dropped precipitously against the dollar, the US dollar index (the yuan is not part of the dollar index) plunged in cliff-dive fashion, losing 36 basis points in about 30 minutes.  While that may not sound significant, in currency trading terms that is considered to be a mini-crash.  Oh, it also dropped below key 80 line of support that has been drawn in the sand by the U.S Government, slicing through that level with ease.

I would suggest, and there's no way of telling without having access to the inside books - the books which contain the numbers for which the banks spend millions to make sure Congress helps the banks keep them hidden - that the Chinese have unloaded another truckload of dollars behind the all the smoke emanating from the holes created by the Chinese Government motivated $/yuan crash and the related derivatives explosions:

The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist.
                                                  

The Deep State: Yes, Orwell's Vision Is Unfolding

Any America who doesn't watch this video clip from Moyers & Company (Bill Moyer) has no business voting.  Everyone who does watch it will understand why I have not voted since 1992.  There will be no hope for change for until the citizens of this country hold the Government accountable.

President Obama can liquidate American citizens without due processes, detain prisoners indefinitely without charge, conduct dragnet surveillance on the American people without judicial warrant and engage in unprecedented — at least since the McCarthy era — witch hunts against federal employees (the so-called “Insider Threat Program”). Within the United States, this power is characterized by massive displays of intimidating force by militarized federal, state and local law enforcement. Abroad, President Obama can start wars at will and engage in virtually any other activity whatsoever without so much as a by-your-leave from Congress, such as arranging the forced landing of a plane carrying a sovereign head of state over foreign territory.

The Government's New Home Sales Report For January: Either Fraud Or Incompetence

The Census Bureau released its new home sales report for January today.  It showed nearly a 10% increase in sales from December to January and an increase over January 2013.  The only problem with this report is that it has holes in the numbers that are wider than the Mariana Trench is deep.

To begin with, please keep in mind that the headline numbers reflect a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR).  This means that the numbers collected by the Census Bureau are fed into a statistical model that spits out a result and we have no idea whatsoever how the result was calculated.  This is common across all Government economic reports and results in a high degree of reporting errors and bias to the upside, especially when a rising trend is followed by declining trend, such as is the case with the current housing market.

Instead of looking at the SAAR, it's more useful for analyzing the data by looking at the unadjusted monthly data, which is included in the Govt report  - LINK - but never reported by the media or discussed by Wall Street analysts.  As I'll show, it is this aspect of the data that is an inconvenient truth and I suspect it will eventually be removed from the report, just like the Fed removed M3 from its reports.

If you look at the link, you'll see that in January a total of 34,000 homes were preliminarily estimated to have been "sold."  I say "sold" because the Census Bureau records a sale when a contract is signed - not when a home is delivered, escrow clears and title is transferred.  Currently most big homebuilders are reporting a 25% cancellation rate on homes "sold."  If we apply this rate to the 34k number, we get 26k (rounding up) as the actual number of homes that might eventually be delivered and constitute a real sale, or cash generating economic event.   If we annualize this number, we get an annualized sales rate based on January's contract signings + likely cancellations of 312,000.  Note that this varies significantly from the 468k SAAR reported by the Govt.

Even if I give the numbers the benefit of seasonality, there's no way a number which is based on January's contract signings and includes cancellations would come anywhere near 400k.  One more important point of note.  When a contract "sale" as reported by the Govt is cancelled, the Govt does not subtract this from previous "sales" reports.  From the Census Bureau site:  "The Census Bureau does not make adjustments to the new home sales figures to account for cancellations of sales contracts" (LINK).   You'll also note that, as I stated above, the Govt admits that when the market is declining this report and the methodology used overstates the results.  This is what is happening now.

A second source of fraud/incompetence is that the reported increase of sales for January is completely inconsistent with the mortgage purchase application data released weekly by the Mortgage Bankers Association.  Since the early fall of 2013, this report has been showing a decline almost every week.  Since 2014 began, it's been showing double digit year over year declines almost every week.  Now, we know from this data - (LINK) - that mortgages are used in close to 95% of all new home purchases.  January 2013 to January 2014 showed a double digit decline in mortgage purchase applications.  Same for December.  How is it possible that new home sales increased 10% from December to January and 2% from January this year from January 2013?

It has been suggested that perhaps investors started buying new homes to rent out.  While it is possible, that theory is entirely inconsistent with the rate of return model being used by these investors, who require the low cost basis of distressed homes to make their ROR models work.  New homes are significantly more expensive than a distressed home, or even non-distressed existing homes, and therefore it is highly improbable that investors are flocking to buy new homes.

Instead, it would appear that the Government report is seeded in fraud or incompetence.  One last point, we've have had the "bad weather" narrative shoved in our face ad nauseum with every economic report that is showing weakness during January.  However, you'll note that the Government is reporting that the northeast and the south - the two regions which were hit with several bad weather days in January - are both registering increase home "sales" for January over December.

How is it possible that consumers in both the northeast and south decided to stay home in January and not spend money on anything except a new home?  Are they buying these homes from Amazon.com and Ebay?  By the way, online sales tanked hard in January too.  The answer is:  fraudulent or incompetent reporting.

The BEST Way To Get Rich In America: Steal From The Taxpayers

                                              
If you want to get rich, don't bother inventing something to advance humanity, move to DC and go to work for a lobbying firm or Government contractor.

This is an interesting exposè of the 25 richest neighborhoods in America.  While many of the 'hoods that make the list are associated with America's former industrial wealth, three of the top five are bedroom communities of Washington, DC.

I have to say, this is outright embarrassing and tragic for this country:  Richesest 'Hoods in America

Having spent several months living in Georgetown in 2004, I can vividly recall that everywhere you went went within a 10-15 mile ring around Capitol Hill, the only thing you could "smell" was taxpayer largesse.  What a sad statement about this country...

R.I.P. Harold Ramis

Harold Ramis passed today.  Included in his epic body of a work as a writer, director, producer and actor is "Animal House," which in my view is the funniest movie ever made ("Trading Places" may share that spot for me).

"Animal House" ignited the re-birth and proliferation of frat house participation and culture on college campuses across the country, which had started to die out during the "counter-culture/social revolution" movement that swept the nation starting in the mid-1960's.

The 1970's are an important period of time for me not only because that was the period of my teen years, but also because - upon reflecting back - it was probably the last window of opportunity for the citizens and progressive politicians (Gary Hart and Tim Wirth, for instance) to save our system.

After the revelations of Watergate, there was a chance to burn the system down and rebuild it from the ground up and make the adjustments to the legal structure required to prevent the build-up of the systemic rot and decay which had accumulated over the previous 200 years.

But instead, Nixon was pardoned and the elites seized and began to implement the extreme power and control that accompanied the possession of the world's reserve currency in pure fiat form.  This enabled the business and political elites to hasten the erosion of The Bill of Rights and obliterate the check and balance system of power separation that was fundamental to our democracy. 

Notwithstanding the appalling failures of every post-Nixon President leading up to the present, currently we are stuck with a man who promised hope and change - to do his best to restore Rule of Law.   Instead, we have a President who has dedicated his first six years to advancing the despotic powers that have accumulated into the Executive Branch of Government and has shepherded our county further down the path of systemic destruction and totalitarianism.

"Animal House" is symbolic of both the rebellious spirit that had proliferated American culture during the 1970's but also of this country's transition into a system of pathological social order and behavioral control.

Gone forever is the "question authority" spirit upon which this country was founded.

R.I.P. Harold Ramis and R.I.P.  USA:

The Gold/Silver Ratio: Gold And Silver Are Going Higher

The price of gold and silver will both hit new highs in 2014. The price of gold goes north of $2,000, and silver will quickly go over $50. When it does, it will get a little crazy.  – Eric Sprott, Sprott Investment Management - SilverDoctors.com

A reader the other day was inquiring about the gold/silver ratio (GSR). The GSR is an interesting metric that converts the price of gold and silver into the number of ounces of silver it would take to buy one ounce of gold.  Over the entire course of history, that I know of, the GSR has been as low as 8, which was the fixed ratio used by the Roman Empire for exchanging gold and silver.

Interestingly – at least to me – if you look at the GSR over the last 350 years, it held steady at around 15 until the middle/late 1800′s.  At that point in time it rose steadily as the gold standard was slowly eroded by United States.  President Lincoln was actually the first President to disconnect gold and silver as  the Constitutionally mandated currency when he allowed someone to use Government-issued bonds to settle a debt obligation (the action was later upheld by the Supreme Court under President Grant).

At any rate, to cut to the chase, since the Federal Reserve was founded, the GSR has ranged from 15 to 100.   The low-end of the range usually correlates with bull market tops in gold/silver and vice versa with the high-end.

Currently the GSR is 60 and I believe the recent movement in the GSR is signalling the possibility of a big move ahead for gold and an even bigger move for silver.  I have compiled my analysis in this article published by Seeking Alpha today:   The Gold/Silver Ratio: Forecasting A Big Move Higher For Silver

I don’t know if the next big move higher that I believe is coming will be the final stage of the precious metals bull market, but I do think that based on the extraordinary supply/demand fundamentals for gold that the next move will be big for gold and spectacular for silver.