Friday, February 28, 2014

Is Larry Yun Intentionally Making A Joke Out Of The Bad Housing Data?

But the most brilliant propagandist technique will yield no success unless one fundamental principle is borne in mind constantly and with unflagging attention. It must confine itself to a few points and repeat them over and over. Here, as so often in this world, persistence is the first and most important requirement for success.  - Adolph Hitler, "Mein Kampf"

Seriously, is National Association of Realtors chief economist, Larry Yun, trying to make a joke out of using the "bad weather" excuse for poor housing market sales?

As I have shown repeatedly, the poor housing market sales results are a direct result, for many fundamental reasons, of the demand-side of the market falling away.  In fact, RealtyTrac just released a report yesterday that showed institutional investor purchases of homes fell to its lowest level in January since March 2012:  LINK  That has nothing to do with the weather in any part of the country.

However, I have provided links in previous articles that show that, on average across the country, the weather during January was about the same as it has been over the last 10 years.  In fact, in California it was warmer than normal. 

So why is Larry Yun insistent upon shoving the "bad weather" narrative down our throats every time the NAR releases a negative housing market report.  For instance, just today, the NAR released its Pending Home Sales index for January.  It actually showed a slight uptick for January from December but was below what was expected by analysts.  So what does Larry have to say:  "Ongoing disruptive weather patterns in much of the U.S. inhibited home shopping"  (LINK).

Well, let's cut to the chase.  What really happened according the NAR data?  For sake of simplicity, here's a graphic pictorial of the distribution of the NAR data for January from Zerohedge:

(click on graph to enlarge)

Now, from what we know about the weather patterns across the country, California/the West was warmer than normal, the Northeast and the South were about average with a few extreme bad weather days  and the Midwest was also about average with some unusually cold days sprinkled in.  

So how come the biggest drop in pending home sales occurred in the area where the weather was warmer than usual and the areas that might have been affected by the weather show gains for January?

The only conclusion I can draw is one of three possibilities:   1) Larry is tragically stupid;  2) Larry is a pathological liar; or 3)  Larry is making a joke out of the fact that the housing market is beginning to collapse.

Larry, if you happen to see this, please either leave a comment or respond with your explanation to my email as to why your statement about the weather is so obviously wrong.  I encourage everyone to send this blog post to the NAR and maybe they can issue an explanation other than putting out the above blueprint from "Mein Kampf."


  1. I just saw a segment on Fox news about the housing market picking up in Miami, Phoenix and Las Vegas. And that the builders were worried about finding skilled laborers for the work. It was all I could do to keep from puking listening to this craopla. So, in their honor I bought some more SRS because if that's a contrarian indicator if I ever heard one.....Blankone

    1. I don't know about Miami, but I know the markets in Phoenix and Las Vegas have already died on vine.

    2. Michael JacksonSunday, 02 March, 2014

      2013 Las Vegas Real Estate Market Recap

    3. Michael JacksonSunday, 02 March, 2014

      Summerlin 89138 Market Update (February 2014)

  2. Between the made up data and the on going geopolitical and global financial meltdowns occurring, this entire paradigm that we currently live in is about to self destruct. I thought that we would get through the summer and see the implosion by early fall. I now realize that the wheels are coming off now. I mean right now !

  3. Global gold prices may have been manipulated on 50 per cent of occasions between January 2010 and December 2013, according to analysis by Fideres, a consultancy.

    The findings come amid a probe by German and UK regulators into alleged manipulation of the gold price, which is set twice a day by Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Barclays, Bank of Nova Scotia and Société Générale in a process known as the “London gold fixing”.

    Fideres’ research found the gold price frequently climbs (or falls) once a twice-daily conference call between the five banks begins, peaks (or troughs) almost exactly as the call ends and then experiences a sharp reversal, a pattern it alleged may be evidence of “collusive behaviour”.

    “[This] is indicative of panel banks pushing the gold price upwards on the basis of a strategy that was likely predetermined before the start of the call in order to benefit their existing positions or pending orders,” Fideres concluded.

    “The behaviour of the gold price is very suspicious in 50 per cent of cases. This is not something you would expect to see if you take into account normal market factors,“ said Alberto Thomas, a partner at Fideres.,d.aWc#axzz2uTcLOJTN

  4. The inevitable debt default ahead for the US, UK and Japan

  5. Larry Yun learned his craft from the last e-con-omist for the NAR, David Lereah ( or LIE-reah if you want the truth)

    The NAR could teach Wall Street a thing or two about lying and manipulating charts and data.

  6. Michael JacksonMonday, 03 March, 2014

    Throttling Back in Tandem

    The central banks of the world’s two largest economies are reducing monetary policy accommodation under the presumption that growth will not stall out, even though bad things have often happened when the Fed has tightened before. Indeed, a recent fund manager survey finds that – as on the cusp of the Great Recession – only about 1% think the U.S. is in recession. In essence, the overwhelming majority is sanguine that an economic contraction is nowhere in sight. What if they are mistaken about the economy’s resilience?