(click on chart to enlarge)
"A CBS News poll released Wednesday finds that nearly two in three Americans want Republicans in Congress to continue to challenge parts of the health care reform bill" Here's the news link: Americans to Congress: Get rid of this bill
Please note that 41% of those who want the fight to continue are Democrats. Anyone who thinks that the CBS poll is biased toward the right is nothing more than a blind Obama follower. Please note that CBS is controlled by Sumner Redstone, a big Democratic supporter.
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Dave,
ReplyDeleteAnother (Thoughts!) is very interesting reading. Would you consider doing a post that summarized his thesis?
One thing for sure is Gold, Oil and the USD form a very strong triangle. He also seemed like the end game was nigh 13 years ago but they kicked the can. I think the Gordo Gold sell is what did it.
Joe M.
"another" was looking at the same stuff i was in 2001, when i thought that what is happening now in the system would start happening in 2005. i failed to see them use the massive subprime lending flood to further kick the can.
ReplyDeletebut let's face it, what happened in the fall of 2008 WAS a bona fide bank collapse. THEN they dumped another $23 trillion in direct cash/credit infusions, Govt stimulation and Govt guarantees. That has held things together but certainly has not solve the problems or created economic growth.
the end game will be massive monetary printing, either helicopter drops of the stuff and/or massive sovereign-driven debt creation.
we will get hyperinflation and worse.
If I have some time maybe i will put together a summary of "another." the problem is, readers might think, since we haven't completely collapsed yet, that it's just the "boy who cried wolf" syndrome...
How would you explain that Goldcoininvest - a German company and another dozens of companies sell PM in large amounts 6% over the spot in large quantities. If the price was really low and was not going to explode it would not be possible to buy those as all those companies and shop dealers would hoard it and not sell now. Even in England it is easy to go to a shop near the Underground and buy genuine G and S and they would offer you a better price if you buy more. It odesn't look like there is a lack of those metals...
ReplyDeleteAnonymous, I'm not quite sure what you are saying, but I think you are commenting that gold and silver are abundantly available in retail quantities and that if coin dealers thought that the price of gold and silver were going to explode, they would hold what they got and not sell.
ReplyDeleteI've thought about that idea and the longer I've been in this sector of the market, and I've been buying bullion now for over 8 years, the more I come to understand that coin/bullion dealers are just another retailer. Retailers make money turning over their inventory. And actually, coin dealers operate on a very small margin, unless they manage to buy an estate collection with some hidden gems. It's very competitive. And when you walk into a coin dealer and see a well-stocked inventory of bullion and nuimuismatics, they are actually taking price risk on that inventory to the extent they don't hedge.
It's like any other retail situation, buyers need to be educated and aware of prices/spreads before they purchase.
As far as global supply in general, it is running thin. That is why the IMF has offered up some of their gold, and the 212 to India et al appears to be nothing more than an accounting "unwind" of India's gold pledge to the IMF reserve fund. Most observors agree that it appears that no gold actually changed hands or was moved, it's just that India gave the IMF cash in order to remove India's pledge of gold (same w/Mauritius and Sri Lanka). What about the other 190 tonnes. I dunno, ask the IMF. They clanged the bell aggressively to announce the offering and now it's disappeared....
suffice it to say that at the very large buyer level, gold/silver is getting thin.
Anonymous said... I have run across a solution we can all be responsible for: Call on our state legislature to demand an Article 5 constitutional convention to pass the Limitations Amendment (www.LimitationsAmendment.org). This looks like a solution that might save us, or at least less the pain.
ReplyDeleteDave, it seems the many troubles with the U$Dollar are, at the moment, being nicely papered over by all the troubles in the EU. The euro has fallen considerably, giving the $ lots of strength over the last couple months.
ReplyDeleteI expect this should continue for a bit longer, and hopefully will get the metals back down to a nice buying level. I'd like to see $950 gold and $13 silver at some point this summer, then it's time to seriously load up. Might as well take advantage of the $ strength while it lasts.
BTW, liked your post on the healthcare scam (er.. reform), there is a considerable amount of public opposition that won't be going away quietly. Thank goodness!
Thanks for the post scotty. i have that website linked on the lower right section of my blog.
ReplyDeleteAman. Follow the big bank money. They are still very very short the dollar and long euro. They covered a little last week as per the COT thru last Tuesday, and I would bet they reloaded their shorts as the dollar rallied at the end of the week/this week.
ReplyDeleteThey are not record short because they think they will lose on the trade. The dollar index was at 90 a year ago. It's still down after this big rally almost 10% from a year ago. That's a huge number in forex terms.
I don't know if gold/silver will get as low as you are hoping. The east has kicked in buying physical big-time again this week. You'll see that in tonight's Midas if you subscribe.
There's also this article, which is very telling about the nature of the market:
http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Gold-refineries-struggle-as-scrap-gold-flow-plunges-26797-3-1.html
Historically, when scrap dries up, and it's been unusually dry in Europe despite the price move in gold over the last 6 months, it precedes a big move higher...we'll see.
Thx for the feedback on the healthcare post. They've destroyed our Constitution as scotty above points out.
Dave, excuse my ignorance regarding bond markets. But aren't these terrible treasury auctions with yields spiking higher supposed to be negative for the dollar index?
ReplyDeleteI feel the market winds changing here, tho I have no idea what it will mean for gold and mining share prices!
I'm glad to see that people are fighting the bill. I'm a democrat-socialist type and believe in good health care for everyone and I'm willing to pay higher taxes for it. But this bill did nothing to address the issues with health care itself and was nothing more than a Health Care Insurance bill. IMHO.
ReplyDeleteAs a side note, I purchased 2, 1/10 coins from my local coin shop two weekends ago. They wanted $125 for Maples (that seemed about right considering spot price at the time), but they wanted $145 for Eagles. Does anyone know why there was such a difference? Are Eagles becoming that scarce?
Dave a couple of things,
ReplyDeleteFirst Nate's debt saturation chart showing pumping more money into the system is now having a negative effect on the economy.
Second, Jordan's article regarding hyperinflation being due to a failure in the bond market. http://thedailygold.com/chartstechnicals/watch-the-bond-market-not-bank-lending-or-velocity/?p=2664/
Third, zerohedge had a graph showing the interest expense payment tsunami. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fed-runs-out-low-rate-options-ust-must-be-considering-wholesale-shift-out-risky-assets-bills
And fourthly, the terrible treasury auctions we had yesterday and today.
I believe we are at a cross roads, Ben's money printing and stealth treasury QE actions are starting to NOT have the desired effect. So we have two options:
The US government goes bankrupt, ala greenspan-guidotti rule.
Or Banana Ben needs more zeros on his QE spreadsheet.
I'm having a real problem with the assertion that "A CBS News poll released Wednesday finds that nearly two in three Americans want Republicans in Congress to continue to challenge parts of the health care reform bill"
ReplyDeleteBelow is the complete poll linked from the story. Please show me where it states the above because I can't find it!
CBS NEWS POLL
FOR RELEASE: 3/23/10
7:00 A.M. ET
THE PRESIDENT AND HEALTH CARE REFORM:
BEFORE AND AFTER THE HOUSE VOTE
March 21-22, 2010
In the days immediately following Sunday night’s vote on health care
reform in the House of Representatives, CBS News re-interviewed 649
adults who were first interviewed just before the House voted on the
bill, in a CBS News Poll conducted March 18-21.
President Obama receives credit for accomplishing health care reform
since the bill passed Sunday, and slightly more Americans (but not a
majority) now approve of the bill.
In interviews conducted Monday and Tuesday, 47% of Americans say they
approve of the job the President is doing on health care, up six
points from the CBS News Poll conducted just prior to the House vote.
However, views of his handling of health care are still mixed, with
48% disapproving.
OBAMA HEALTH CARE APPROVAL
After Vote Before Vote
Approve 47% 41%
Disapprove 48 51
Two in three Americans re-interviewed after the bill passed think the
passage represents an accomplishment for the President -- including
more than half who see it as a major one, up from 46% before Sunday’s
vote. Just 32% think it is not an accomplishment.
FOR PRES. OBAMA, PASSING HEALTH CARE REFORM IS:
After vote Before vote
Major accomplishment 52% 46%
Minor accomplishment 13 10
Not an accomplishment 32 36
Most Democrats and half of independents view health care reform as a
major accomplishment for President Obama. Few Republicans see it as
such.
Support for the bill itself has also risen five points since the House
vote Sunday night. Before the vote, 37% of Americans approved of the
bill while 48% disapproved. Now those same Americans are more closely
divided: 42% approve and 46% disapprove. Still, a third strongly
disapproves.
HEALTH CARE BILL
After Vote Before Vote
Approve: 42% 37%
Strongly approve 15 13%
Somewhat approve 27 24
Disapprove: 46% 48%
Somewhat disapprove 14 15
Strongly disapprove 32 33
Don’t know 12 15
It may take more time before Americans decide whether or not these
reforms are advantageous to them personally, and the percentage that
now thinks the bill won’t affect them has grown. When re-interviewed,
43% say the reforms will not have much of an affect on themselves or
their families, up eight points from 35% before the vote. Just 16%
say the legislation will help them personally – down four points from
before the vote.
HOW WILL REFORMS AFFECT YOU PERSONALLY?
After Vote Before Vote
Help 16% 20%
Hurt 35 38
No effect 43 35
_______________________________________________________________
This poll was conducted by telephone on March 22-23, 2010 among 649 adults
first interviewed by CBS News March 18-21, 2010. Phone numbers were dialed
from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The error due to
sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus four
percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher. This poll release
conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public
Polls.
Sam: the date on your post is 7:00 a.m. 3/23. This date on this artical, which is FROM the CBS website, is 3/24 at 6:30 p.m. I don't have time to go thru and compare and contrast, but if you disagree with two articles, you should leave some comments on the CBS news links or email CBS.
ReplyDeleteHere's the link to the article I posted:
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20001117-503544.html
There is a section for comments there.
My view about how the country feels about the HC Bill is reflected in last night's poll.
@Anonymous re: socialized healthcare. I'm not sure a socialized system would work in the U.S., with over 300 million people, vs. the European systems everyone loves to love, where those countries are 1/5 - 1/10 the size of the U.S.
ReplyDeleteI do believe that the current system has failed BECAUSE of all of the Govt intervention/regulations/medicare abuse/insurance abuse/personal injury litigation. The system needs to be burned down and rebuilt from scratch. This Bill, while notwithstanding that it's Consitutionally problematic from what's in it to how it was passed, does absolutely nothing other than give 30mm more people healthcare paid for by the taxpayers and redirect more money to BigPharma/Big HMO/Big Insurance.
As for you question regarding bullion spreads, that's a good question. In over 8 years of buying bullion no one I know can understand why eagles trade at a higher premium than maples or philharmonics. All 3 coins are .9999/.999 gold content. The only answer anyone can think of is because eagles are minted in this country.
As an investor and money manager, I believe eventually all bullion coins will trade at the same spread - and that spread will be MUCH higher than it is today. My advice would be buy whichever bullion coin has the lowest the spread.
anlui - thanks for the links - i actually read them when they came out, but many others will appreciate them.
ReplyDeletere: the Treasury auctions - I've been debating whether or not to blog it, but the Primary Dealers took down over 50% of all three auctions this week. Remember, the PD's are funded by the Fed. If you look at the previous 2,5,7yr auctions this year, the PD's took down well less than 50%. To me this is nothing more than the Fed monetizing the Treasury issuance, because 1) the PD's don't make huge commissions on Treauries and they have to hedge what they take down, which costs money 2) they have to step up and bid for supply that is not being bid for by foreigners, funds and individuals - that is part of the requirement of being Primary Dealer of the Fed.
anliu, re: your "ignorance" comment: your comment reflects LACK of ignorance LOL. You are right. The dollar is just doing that "commodity/forex" thing in which a continuous move in one direction feeds on itself and tends to overshoot what might be a more "natural" level for the move. Don't forget, the DX was at 90 in Feb '09. It dropped like stone and even with the current move, it's still almost 10% below where it was a year ago.
ReplyDeleteAs for the Treasury auctions, as per my comment posted above, I believe the Fed is actively monetizing these auctions using Primary Dealers and off-shore accounts (Caribbean/UK).
Take a look at a 5yr chart of TLT (weekly/daily). You'll see that the bond market at the long end is in trouble if it breaks much lower. There's a MASSIVE 3-yr. head n shoulders formation which is in big danger of breaking HARD to the downside.
Gold has a good chance of going up with interest rates, like it did in the late 1970's.
Dave,
ReplyDeleteWith all due respect, the pdf file linked at CBS is named: "poll_health_care_032410_7am.pdf".
Thus, presumably, it is the latest released info. At present, there are 441 comments to the story, so I'm not going to waste my time posting a correction which will be lost in the shuffle.
However, if you are going to copy and post a story, as a blogger you have an obligation to verify the story is accurate. It appears that you have not done this. All you have done is pass on hearsay.
Please do not pass on stories to us that are not verified as being accurate. It demeans your blog and your efforts.
If you can show me where I'm mistaken, I will gladly apologize.
Sam, you are digging a bit of credibilty hole for yourself here and I try to be as careful as possible about checking and double checking my links and sources.
ReplyDeleteYou are citing the entire poll. The good folks at CBS obviously asked the question: "should republicans continue to challenge the health care bill" (please see the pie chart). This analysis linked is based on THAT question.
If you have issue with that question or the methodology of the poll, please take that up with CBS. In the meantime, please don't insult my credibility as a blogger like that. I am usually pretty careful, not perfect, with checking and double-checking data and links. And I state when something is my opinion vs. fact. Too bad zerohedge and clusterstock do not document as thoroughly as I do.
Dave, Philip Manduca articulates what I was trying to say yesterday regarding yields and the usd: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ecu-groups-philip-manduca-we-are-tipping-point-and-only-thing-may-save-euro-collapse-us
ReplyDeleteSo either the fed orchestrates a "risky assets" selloff and drive the sheeple back into bonds to drive yields lower or Banana Ben lets the US government go bankrupt.
The problem with creating another stock market, commodities panic is that every time it will have a less and less of an effect, when we already have too much debt in the system.
If you remember what Ben said, that the fed was not going to bail out the US government from it's fiscal problems, it looks like yields are going to go higher from here. And to me atleast, it looks like the fed is going to let the US government go bankrupt.
Thing is wont the stock market and commodities market selloff, atleast in the short term, to chase the higher yields in the bond market? On the other hand as yields rise, bond values fall and I'm guessing investors will start selling their bond holdings instead??? (Now I'm totally confused.)
Whats your take on all this?
anliu, thanks for the link and I do agree that at collapse of the US would force capital flows into the euro. however, it's a capital flow issue.
ReplyDeleteRight now, despite what the Fed is saying (read my lips, not my actions), the Fed is indeed "bailing" out the US Govt. Look at the details of this week's auctions. Primary Dealers, who are required to bid, had to swallow over 50% of all 3 auctions. Guess who funds the PD's? Of course, the Fed. Bernank is more full of shit than Greenspan was and Bernanke doesn't speak and lie as well either.
Again, as far as what will happen, you need to study the history capital flows and what happens as the bond market sells off. Most CNBC-induced morons will see rising yields as a signal of a rapidly improving economy. Rigged Govt statistics will "confirm" this. Money will flow from bonds (funds have loading up on bonds since last March) and flow quickly back into stocks.
I'm not alone in this, Bill Gross, the biggest bond money manager on the planet is now introducing stock funds: http://www.businessinsider.com/gross-title-from-here-on-bonds-will-just-get-uglier-and-uglier-2010-3 - there's a reason for this - he knows which way capital will flow...
I said back in Nov 2005, when it was announced that the Fed would no longer publish M3 as of March 2006, that the Fed was going to go on a massive money-printing spree to try and reflate stocks and create new bubbles to offset the damage from the bursting housing bubble. I also said that we may eventually see 20,000 on the Dow, but that gold would outperfrom the Dow by at least 2:1 and mining stocks by 5:1.
I still believe that call.
One more point: as per Ludwig Von Mises back in like 1936: with a system of global fiat currencies, we will eventually see a global race to devalue currencies.
ReplyDeleteEvery country in the world is now printing money assiduously and this is why GOLD HAS GONE UP AGAINST EVERY SINGLE WORLD CURRENCY FOR 9 YEARS IN A ROW.
Dave I agree that the fed will choose to inflate the stock market to the sky and destroy all the naysayers and people caught short. But I still believe the fed will not bail out the US government by continuing to monetizing the fiscal debt. The fed does not serve the US government and by extension the US citizens; they serve a "den of thieves and vipers."
ReplyDeleteJordan in his bond market article states, that investors will start fleeing the bond market and start heading into gold, and that is what will light the gold market fuel.
anliu. You are look under the light for your lost wallet instead of where your wallet may be lost (that was my financ prof's favorite analogy at U of Chicago - he was brilliant).
ReplyDeleteThe FED IS MONETIZING Govt paper - it's just not obvious in what ways. That $2 trillion in excess reserves held at the Fed is bank money that is being leveraged as per capital ratio fractional banking and banks are buying Treasuries FOR the Fed. It's just that they don't show up in the Fed data acculators.
Here, read this because this explains it best:
http://www.fgmr.com/us-dollar-money-supply-is-underreported.html
One more point, if you believe the Fed is telling the truth: 1) you are being fooled once again by the same entity that said "it's the Federal Reserves last duty to tell the public the truth" - alan blinder, nightly business report, 1994 alan blinder is a Princeton prof and former vice chair of the FOMC 2)you are ignoring history.
When you consider that the U.S. has racist undertones and a strong anti health care program, likely sponsored by the same companies which some say, will benefit most from public health care, it is a wonder that Obama's total approval rating rose into and after the vote on health care.
ReplyDelete55% favor repeal of the health bill according to a poll done by Rasmussen Reports. That number is going to decline as folks realise it's not as bad as they have been led to believe.
Don't shoot the do gooder.