[Housing news update: New home sales tank 2.2% in February "to an annual pace of 308,000, seasonally adjusted, which is the lowest rate since the government began tracking the data in 1963" News link. This was well below consensus estimate expectations]
The Mortgage Bankers Assoc. released its weekly mortgage finance index - which shows purchase and refinance applications (note: not approved mortgages, just applications). For the latest week in March, the overall loan application volumn decreased 4.2% from a week earlier.
Bloomberg highlights just the purhase index component on its website, which rose 2.7% from a week earlier "making for a third rise in four weeks that points to improvement for home sales including March data" Link.
Let's look at the crucial information the Bloomberg neglected to report. From the MBAA news release MBAA Link: The refinance index was down 7.1% from a week earlier, the purchase index was down 15% from the same week last year.
Anyone see any indication of housing market "improvement" in those numbers? Hint: look at yesterday's existing home sales numbers, which were horrible and which I posted on below. As the MBAA often explains, typically someone applying for a mortgage will file more than 1 application, in order to cut the risk of denial. What this does is skew the numbers to the high side, so the actual purchase activity is lower than the applications number reflects. Furthermore, the index measures applications, not approvals. Real purchase activity is lower than than the applications index reported would indicate.
Clearly the media is doing whatever it can to shmear lipstick on the dying pig of an economy. The system and the media's lack of truth in reporting becomes more Orwellian by the day...
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
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In car yesterday listening to one of the internet "alternative" programs.
ReplyDeleteHeard that mortgage business in 2010 is being revised down from 2 Trillion to 1 Trillion.
Now, there are many factors in that but if it was being revised upward to 3 trillion it would have been all over the news.
That was Fannie's number. The question is whether or not the Fed/Govt will try to force the more mortgages using FHA.
ReplyDeleteThe top 1% elite have a system in place whereby they make money so easily, it's like shooting fish in a barrel. BTW, we are the fish.
ReplyDeleteJoe M.
Yup. Joe, look at the JPM tax deal. They paid $1.9 billion for Wamu, they're going to get $1.4 billion for that from taxpayers.
ReplyDeleteTHere's so much fraud, corruption and theft going on in the system that most people just roll their eyes, bend over and say: "okay, fuck me in the ass again." It's like Stockholm Syndrome has infected the whole population.
We're getting fucked in more ways than an porn actress with 20 years of film credits.
Seems to me that in view of upcoming CFTC "talks" on PM clangs, that most of the down has now moved to London fix in last few days.
ReplyDeleteAgree anonymous. Although about 90% of the time over the last month (and probably 80% of the time in general) gold takes a dump during the London a.m. fix, which is 5 a.m. NY time.
ReplyDeleteAs you point out, it's been particulary vicious the past week.
Dave, love your blog. A bit off topic, but this article was linked on Urbansurvival.com. Gives a nice big picture view of what is occurring with the global banking/US Debt situation. You may not agree with all the points, it is easy to understand.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/LC23Dj04.html
Thanks for the feedback. Nothing really is OT here.
ReplyDeleteThat's a great article - thanks for linking it and please link anything you think might be value-added!
Dave in Denver.
ReplyDeleteHi,
The same problems are manifesting in Euro-ville. All is far from roses.
The EU structure is an exact copy of the old USSR structure, ergo there will be NO democracy. The Eu parliament is to rubber stamp the executive, it cannot propose laws, nor amend.
Here is a linkto a blog I follow, that speaks of the EU now and again. There are many useful links in the article and on the blog.
The blog owner is part of the Albion Alliance, that seeks a referendum on EU membership for the UK, as promised be every major party, subsequently proven to be bare faced liars by their denial of such. A A is something like your tea-party movement.
I reckon folks everywhere are pissed with the way things are panning out, and the globalist moves to exterminate any remaining pretense of democracy.
Whether democracy and free markets can be recovered at this point, is anyones guess.
I get the feeling that blood will have to flow first.
Sigh!
Thanks for link. "dubious, offensive..." LOL.
ReplyDeleteLook forward to going thru it tonight.
Agree on the blood flowing, IF the hoi polloi muster up the nerve. I'm worried Stockholm Syndrome is setting in:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_syndrome
On Yahoo's front page, they have an article about the "shadow" inventory. That news is finally hitting mainstream. Only time will tell if they're going to extend the housing credit. The shit is going to hit the fan for housing because state's aid to towns has been cut and in NJ that means no more property tax rebates and on top of that increase property tax if they don't tackle the teacher's union. My property tax is already near $10k and these seniors are going to want out sooner than later.
ReplyDeleteHarvey, I kind of expect they'll extend the tax credit. BUT, based on the Jan/Feb data, especially if you look at the California data at
ReplyDeletehttp://mhanson.com/archives/477, you can see that tax-credit fueled buying slowing down a lot - that would be the "organic" sales.
I don't think extending the tax credit will stimulate sales anymore unless they really expand it to like $15 or $20k. Hell, why not, housing is basically already socialized via FNM/FRE.
Interesting on the property tax thing. Robert Chapman of "International Forecaster" fame has been saying for at least 9 years that eventually States would have to really jack up property taxes in order to raise revenues.