This article from Bloomberg News this morning grabbed my eyeballs: "Dollar Dinners From ConAgra Threatened By Costs." Heck, I didn't even know there was such an item. It looks to be the food-stamp- family-equivalent of Ramen Noodles for college students (I did a baked potato with melted cheese and hot sauce for variety when I was at the U of Chicago grad school). At any rate, if you read through the article, it would appear that ConAgra can no longer keep the price point at a buck by cutting costs and will have to either raise the price somewhere between 20% and 50% or reduce the size and quality of the portion. Here's the article link: No Inflation?
So I decided to update some prices of select everyday commodities - the kinds of goods that the Government conveniently overlooks when calculating its PPI/CPI metrics. This should be eye-opening: measured over the last 12 months, prices of all these items have increased by: copper 37%, corn 35%, pork bellies (bacon anyone?) 350%, cotton 74% and heating oil 33%. The last one bummed me out because I hate a chilly home and winter is coming. Here's the data link if you want to check my numbers: LINK
Let's be clear about one thing. The true definition of inflation is not higher prices of assets, goods and services. Prices in the system that we observe and experience are nothing more than the manifestation of the underlying cause, which is currency devaluation from an increase in the money supply in excess of a country's real economic output. You can't look at this over a short period of time. Take a look at this long term graph of the basic money supply measure, MZM, which is now one of the popular money supply metrics now that the Fed has hidden M3, the real money supply metric used by every other Central Bank: