Wednesday, May 29, 2013

"Look Ma - No Hands!" - So Much For The Housing Recovery

Lumber is tanking hard.  Yes, there is a slight seasonal component to the price of lumber, but based on all the media reports blaring from all directions, one would think that homebuilders can't build enough new homes to satisfy demand and thus the demand for lumber should be insatiable.  But if that's the case, then why is the price of lumber falling like a rock? 

Someone is lying to us, and I doubt it's the market price of lumber:


There's no question that smart money understands fact from fiction.  I've been watching a quiet exodus of smart money from the housing market for several weeks now:  The Housing Recovery Is A Myth   This article is catching up to the dynamic I observed in February:  Big Investors Selling Housing.


8 comments:

  1. Lets see, lumber tanks so the housing myth is busted. G.M.A.C. will give out loans if the applicant can fog a mirror. Job market sucks so that means more people with less income to buy homes and cars. Of course there is no inflation unless you don't eat,drive or buy health insurance. Yes sir things are looking "tip top" cause the talking heads say so. No offense to David Byrne.

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  2. Dave, do you think the Fed will lose control of treasury yields? Is it possible that we face rampant inflation but the treasury yields stay low because the Fed keeps monetising treasuries.

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    1. At some point the Fed will be the only buyer of Treasuries because everyone else will be trying to get rid of dollars. That's when we get hyperinflation. Visualize the pics of Germans with deutsche marks in wheelbarrows

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  3. The weekly lumber chart looks like something the bullion banks crafted. I think Japanese rice traders called it "man throwing anvil into well". Luckily, the chart of gasoline looks great though, and it ought to help Joe Twelve pack wheel off to Target for more crap re-stockage.

    It's truly pathetic to watch media whores drive the herd into the paper asset corral. They're gonna bolt the gate and light it on fire before the year is out. Mooowoowoowoo.

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  4. Dave, do you think those big names like Jim Rogers or Jeff Gundlach have ever researched on gold or silver? Today, I saw Jim Rogers said that gold was down because it was a healthy correction. Jeff Gundlach commented that silver was down because we are in deflation.

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    1. Rogers doesn't believe in manipulation of the gold market - at least publicly. But then again, one has to wonder why he sold his personal U.S. assets and moved his family to Singapore, which a lot of very wealthy people who understand what is happening in this country are doing. Who knows what he's privately doing and he'll never tell us. Neither would I if I were him.

      Gundlach is bond guy. He doesn't really follow the metals. I don't really follow his views. He built a good folling for himself at TCW and a lot of the institutions who give TCW now give him money. Big institutional investors are retarded

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  5. Total Gold Open Interest at Record Low?

    Finally, why does this even matter to you? I'll tell you: Because at 383,791, the total Comex open interest is at historically low levels, the lowest I've ever seen. The records I have don't go back far enough to show anything lower.This is, at a minimum, a multi-year low. Perhaps multi-decade. Maybe someone can email Gene Arensberg? He might know when the total OI was last this low.

    But the only time I've ever seen a similar total OI was on 8/17/12 at 385,434. Why is that important? That night gold closed at $1615 and then set off the next day on a four-week trek that took it to nearly $1800. Are we on the edge of a similar rally? Hard to say. Back in August last year, the CoT structure was almost completely different as long interest had been completely wrung out during the awful beatdown of March-August. Now we sit instead with historic levels of Spec shorts...or at least we did when the last CoT survey was taken nine days ago.

    http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4749/total-gold-open-interest-record-low?

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