Monday, May 13, 2013

The B.S. Is Flying At Us Everyday Now

Two more Government propaganda agencies released extremely misleading data this morning.

First, the Census Bureau released its estimate for April retail sales.  The headlines flashed in big bright lights that retail sales increased a "seasonally adjusted" .1% over March.  The March number was originally reported at -.4% but was revised lower to -.5% - or down from February.

Now here's the interesting part:  if you go by the not seasonally adjusted estimated number, sales for April actually declined from March by 2.5%.  That's quite a bit different from the fabled headlines everyone will see or hear today.  Here's the data:  LINK  And a negative reading is more consistent with the wholesale sales number released last Thursday by the Commerce Department, which showed that wholesale sales posted their biggest drop in four years:  LINK

You would at least think that if the Government was going to paint a big lie, they could at least get their various statistical departments to cooperate with each other so that the lies are consistent across the data.

An even bigger joke is that Bloomberg News reported today that Wall Street dealers are now forecasting that the U.S. Treasury will reduce the size of upcoming Government Treasury auctions due to "soaring revenue" and based on the CBO's recent estimate that the Government will run only an $845 billion deficit for fiscal 2013. 

Now, part of the problem with this idea is that for the first 7 months of FY 2013, the Federal debt load has gone up by $700 billion.  The only reason the debt goes up is because revenues are not covering spending - i.e. a true $700 billion cash spending deficit.  In terms of the timing of cash flows, we know that the Treasury received a big balloon payment in December as wealthy people sold down taxable assets and paid the gains on them ahead of the Jan 1 tax increases.  Moreover, the first few months of the year thru April account for a disproportionate amount of tax revenues for obvious reasons.  So, is tax revenue really "soaring?"  LOL

The bigger part of this CBO joke is the incredibly poor track record that the CBO has in forecasting debt levels and spending levels.  As Zerohedge pointed out back in February, in 2001 the CBO projected that by 2011 the Treasury would have a balance sheet surplus of $2.4 trillion - i.e. no debt.   Instead, the actual number was a debt load of $10.4 trillion.  Just a slight miss there.  And a year ago, the CBO was forecasting that this year's deficit would be $585 billion.  Zerohedge Link

Obviously, going by the monthly run-rate already experienced in 2013 for the first 7 months, the Government is running roughly a $100 billion per month deficit.  Unless the Government can figure out a way to recreate the one-time surge in revenues that occurred in December and maintain income tax revenues at the same run-rate as they were thru April 15, I would expect that the Government, short of using some accounting tricks, will continue to run about $100 billion per month deficit thru the September FY-end, for a total spending deficit of $1.2 trillion.

The point of all this is that the garbage coming of out of DC and NYC on a daily basis keeps getting bigger, more rotten and more foul-smelling.  And I'm sure most of you don't care - I do or I wouldn't have brought this up - but the immigration reform bill going through Congress right now contains language buried in it that mandates the establishment of a database that records and keeps biometric data on every single citizen of the U.S.:  LINK  All I can say to that is that anyone who doesn't think George Orwell's vision was accurate is an idiot.

If they wanted to eliminate illegal immigration, they should just cut back on welfare and social security disability by about 50%, because it would force people who are otherwise capable of working to do the jobs that illegal immigrants are willing to do. 


  1. Yes we have needs more propaganda. Remind of me old U.S.S.R. The U.S. now change to reflect the values of Soviet system. Lies are more open,no regard for truth. Good luck comrades long it will take to change back to old ways.

  2. Michael JacksonMonday, 13 May, 2013

    Your article is absolutely correct, Dave. Very well written - separating Fact from government fiction. Eventually, massive layoffs will occur unless the us government is pumping monies into corporations to prevent failures.

    I am seeing more information come my way here in Nevada of people who used to have jobs and are now drug-dealing to pay the bills because jobs are drying up. We can condemn all we want but people will do what's needed to survive.

    New temp agencies are popping up all over the place like weeds in a garden - must be Obama's plan for creating "Start-Ups" taking effect.

    As far as Immigration, Illegals helps businesses here in Nevada.

    1) Businesses can pay them under the table and pay no workman comp., SS benefits, or any of the other taxes.

    2) For illegals, they can do their drug dealings silently while not having to worry about drug testing (which I'm wondering if some companies are exempting them from while testing natural-borm citizens for their quotas).

    3) Because illegals show no income, they get alot of free help at taxpayer's (what's left of them) expense.

    4) They pay no taxes (state or federal) and don't want to, either. But they do like IRS rewarding them will refunds they didn't qualify for.

    5) They do not do jobs others don't want. They do jobs of others that EMPLOYERS don't want to hire as that would cut into their business profits. Come to Reno and see who are the maintence crews for apartment complexes here - most are not citizens of the US. And they are all paid under the table (low wages -$600 to $1000 a month - but 3 families are usually living under one roof to pay the bills). I have not seen one of them work harder than anyone else and they can easily waste 3 hours talking away to each other instead of working.

    I have witness this and so have others around me. It's the "norm" around here.

  3. Mikkel RasmussenTuesday, 14 May, 2013

    Article on gold leaving US to go South Africa. Anyone dares to come up with an explanation for sending gold back to SA? Are they gonna put it all back in the ground as the barbaric relic it is?

  4. Dave,
    We are all voices in the Wilderness, while the thieves/corrupt politicians, ego maniacs combined with our media mesmerize the masses and sheeple with bs accounting tricks to keep this phoney balogny dow moving higher. This is the worst period in US government bs in history. Why is it that Eric the lying, spying, cheating, racist "HOLDER" allowed to be in our government? Because his boss is twice as bad. When this breaks I hope to see all of them in JAIL. Thanks for your information, though I have lost all respect for our politicians, mega banks, and to some extent the American people themselves.

  5. Facebook’s first funder just backed TransferWise, a startup that’s like an ancient Islamic money transfer system

    Peter Thiel is known for his canny investments. He was the first outside investor in Facebook, and look how that turned out. So it is cause for excitement in British tech circles that the first European investment by Thiel’s Valar Ventures is in TransferWise, a London-based start-up that hopes to do for remittances what Skype did to long-distance dialling. That analogy is particularly apt because Taavet Hinrikus, a co-founder, was an early Skype employee. And Thiel knows his way around online money transfers; he co-founded PayPal.

    Here’s how TransferWise works: Nikos, a Greek migrant in London, pays £100 pounds to the web-based service via his British bank or debit card and asks for it to be sent to Athens, where his brother lives. TransferWise’s algorithm finds someone in Greece, let’s call her Alexa, who wants to send money over to London. She’s put her funds in as well. TransferWise takes the cash out of its own British holdings and sends it to Nikos’s bank account. Its arm in Greece does the same for Alexa. Presto: everybody’s got their remittance and the involvement of banks remained strictly domestic.

    The beauty of TransferWise is that it almost entirely bypasses banks, which use every opportunity to wring out every last cent from overseas transfers. While it is relatively easy to move money within the EU—the key word being relatively—getting it over more consequential borders can be expensive and time-consuming. Banks charge hefty fees, convert at rates favorable to themselves, and tend to ask questions.

    The service differs from Western Union in two ways: it relies on other people’s money to build its corpus rather than its own, and it is significantly cheaper: a ridiculously low £1 or €1 for payments up to 200 in either currency. Fees go slightly higher for bigger sums and become more complicated with other currencies. Still, it transferred £10 million ($16 million) in 2011, its first year of operation, and a cumulative £125 million as of today, which TransferWise says saved its customers £5 million in fees.
    The same two elements are what make TransferWise so similar to

  6. (Quinn in Littleton)

    Dave: How are you keeping your sanity. The news cycle is getting more rediculous by the day. I can't even watch CNBC due to the fact that I have to literally suspend all common sense and it is just too painful to bear.

    What are your thoughts on the miners here? Are we going to start seeing some real problems if the prices of the metals don't begin to rise in the very near future? Q

  7. LOL. You friggin' kidding me. What's going on in this country is better than any theatre that's ever been written and produced ever in the history of the world.

    LOVE it that Obamma and Holder get away with what they are getting away with. Bush was crucified by 1/2 the country and the media for him crimes. No one challenges Obamma or Holder or because you're a racist if you challenge or call out a black man.

    This is absolutely THE BEST!

    Read this - this is what I think about the miners:

  8. MSM is absolute rubbish it stinks so bad that landfills are like a breath of fresh air.

    Pig Pen

  9. Dave, do you think we shall stay here for years? After the takedown of Sept 2011, gold and silver stayed in the range of $1500-$1800 and $26-$36 for almost 2 years, then we had the recent takedown. It's so frustrating to watch...:(

    1. The recent takedown is part/extension of the April 2011/Sept 2011 of gold/silver. If you want to measure the timeframe from Sept 2011, the length of the"correction is a little over 18 months.

      I did the calculations about 2 yrs ago and had measured the avg length of correction - big corrections - to be roughly 18 months. Not from top to bottom and then the eventual upturn, but the length of time it took to go from top to bottom and then back OVER the previous top.

      This time around the PTB is beyond desperate to keep a lid on the metals in order to support all the money printing and prop up the dollar/Treasury bonds. It will fail - just a matter of time.

      The hedge funds are so unbelievably gross short and small net long that the upturn, when it comes, will shock almost everyone. Even better, the small specs are net short gold right now - the first time since 2001. I refer you to the charts to see what 2001 marked...

  10. So this Polony on Sinclair is the next one proven wrong. Fields has been caught out. Physical doesn't matter. initially there is a burst and then the longer nothing happens the more physical tapers off. Its been like that always. So you want to bet against the fed and banks, how stupid is that?

    1. Department of Homeland Security Has Seized Funds Associated with Dwolla Account of Bitcoin Dealer Mt. Gox

      Bottom line, if you were in the process of transferring money or receiving money from Mt. Gox, it is likely the United States government has your money.

      I expect government harassment of Bitcoin holders to intensify. As I have pointed out many times, a key vulnerability of Bitcoin is at the exchange point between the transfer of dollars to bitcoins and bitcoins to dollars. It appears that these exchange points will be a target of the USG, making it near impossible for the conversion of dollars to bitcoins and the reverse.
      do not pass go, do not collect $200. re:Monopoly

  11. Gold Premiums in India Jump as Central Bank Curbs May Cut Supply

    The biggest slump in prices in three decades last month led to shoppers crowding retail outlets across India to buy jewelry and coins, deepening concern that the nation’s current-account deficit, the broadest measure of trade, would widen from an all-time high. The rush to buy bullion caused a shortage of physical supplies, prompting importers to charge a hefty premium over London prices, according to Bamalwa.

    “Banks have refused to deliver any gold except ordered previously, and bullion dealers are not accepting fresh orders,” Bamalwa said. “Whether the bankers and dealers will find another route to import and how they will go about it, it is very unclear.” Any impact from the restrictions is expected to be transitory and overall volumes will be determined by underlying demand, UBS AG said in an e-mail on May 8.
    ‘Cause of Concern’

    The central bank issued a notice imposing the curbs after the trade deficit widened in April to $17.8 billion from $10.31 billion in March as gold and silver imports more than doubled to $7.5 billion from a year ago.

    Gold imports have been a cause for concern and shipments need to be cut to 700 tons a year, said Chakravarthy Rangarajan, chairman of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s economic advisory council. Demand may decline if prices remain stable, he said at a conference in New Delhi today.

    Bullion entered a bear market in London last month as investors sold the metal in favor of riskier assets on speculation that the global economy was recovering. That sparked a buying frenzy from India to China and Turkey. Still, the price fell for a fifth day today and is off to its worst start to the year since 1982, losing 16 percent.
    Inflation-Linked Bonds

    Incredible....yet paper selling winning.

  12. 'The world is in a state of financial war' - Russian presidential advisor

    Glaziev’s report features apocalyptic predictions in regard to the state of the world economy but the most interesting part of the text refers to the so-called “currency wars”. Basically, one of the most influential advisors of the Russian president accuses both the US and EU of “legalized aggression” through unbridled monetary emission. Vedomosti cites several fragments from the report, “As a key point of their anti-crisis policy, they are refinancing their banks using negative real interest rates” and meanwhile “1.5 trillion dollars, 1.2 trillion euros and comparable amounts of yen and pounds are used to finance debt pyramids and acquire real assets across the world”. Western banks are accused of blocking their debtors in “debt traps”, with the ultimate goal of “obtaining political control” and “seizing the real assets” of the debtors.

    Read more:

    guess there's a truce with metals languishing?

  13. Bank of France Touts Securitization Plan as Template for ECB

    He’s in talks with the Frankfurt-based ECB and other national central banks on the initiative, which would ideally create securities that qualify as collateral in ECB refinancing operations. While banks can currently securitize SME loans and use them as collateral at the ECB, the process is complicated and not centralized.

    “We want a vehicle that is super simple and super transparent,” Gautier said. “We’d very much like these securities to be eligible in the euro system, but it’s not a condition. We’ll go ahead on our own if we have to to show that it’s doable.”
    The Bank of France project involves the creation of a private company to pool existing loans to SMEs and then issue new securities that can be traded. Current plans are for the participating banks to own equal shares in the company and for the first such entity to issue five-year bonds

    “The banks were very interested but they said that to make it really attractive, any securities should be eligible as collateral for refinancing within the euro system so that they would be liquid in the event of a crisis,” he said. “That’s now what we’re aiming for.”

    He said the Bank of France would prefer the securities to be rated by internal central bank systems or the Internal Ratings-Based approach used by private lenders under the aegis of the Bank for International Settlements.

    “We’d like to reduce dependence on the ratings agencies, but it’s not necessarily easy,” he said.

  14. Argentines are now allowed to know the real rate of inflation, thanks to their courts

    Argentina’s courts, in a welcome moment of sanity, have overruled attempts (link in Spanish) by Argentina’s government to prevent anyone who isn’t the government from publishing a figure for inflation that isn’t what the government says it is.

    As Argentine official economic figures have progressively parted ways with reality, other institutions have taken it upon themselves to publish more accurate data. In 2011 the country’s minister of domestic commerce, Guillermo Moreno, began imposing fines of up 500,000 pesos (link in Spanish), then worth around $120,000, on seven Argentine economic consultancies for publishing their own inflation indices, which the government calls “inexact.” The IMF, which has been using private sector estimates since 2011, formally censured Argentina’s government earlier this year for failing to give it accurate data about inflation; in April its deputy director for Latin America called the country’s methods of repressing unofficial estimates “censorship.” In March, the country reported that inflation was 10.58%; the country’s opposition party pegged the number at 24.43%, a figure that independent economists believe is far closer to the mark.

  15. The Market is Going to Exact its Price in the Form of Capital Controls & Rising Interest Rates

    Harris says, “So you are going to allow $3 trillion in cash the Fed created to sit out there in the economy? That would be phenomenally inflationary.” Harris thinks the Fed might make the banks hold much of that money to “slow the velocity.” Harris thinks the Fed has just “bought time” and goes on to say, “Has Congress really gotten their act together? . . . They sit back and say the stock market is going up. I don’t have a problem. That’s a false positive if I’ve ever seen one.” Harris contends, “This doesn’t end pretty. They have to recreate the bubble that got you here in the first place. At some point, the market is going to exact its price.” That “price,” according to Harris, is going to come in the form of “capital controls and rising interest rates.”