Friday, April 15, 2011

More QE3 Serum

No time to do a big post today, but we are now seeing some Wall Street firms cut their Q2 GDP estimates PLUS a non-Wall Street firm with more credibility just cut its Q2 GDP forecast.  I got this from zerohedge: 
Will U.S. economic output be affected by the supply disruptions to the Japanese auto manufacturers? The answer is unequivocally yes and the economic impact will be quite severe in April and for Q2 as a whole
Here's the LINK  Goldman has also been busy lowering its outlook for Q2 and the full year.  You can google to find reference to that, or zerohedge has been chronicalling it.  Some people are of the view that the chief economist at Goldman gets "special" insight into what the Fed is thinking, and thus believe that Goldman is prepping the markets for the eventual capitulation on the QE2-extension aka QE3 call from Fed.  Also recall that I have averred in my commentaries that the renewed money printing programs would be justified by the economic effects globally of Japan and Libya.

"But what about the great economic reports today and earlier this week that show manufacturing growth and lower than expected inflation?" you might ask.  I promise you that nominal growth in these economic indexes are highly skewed by real inflation.  And please note that today's CPI report, to begin with, is a highly manipulated Government prepared report and it's widely acknowledged, accepted and proven that the Govt-CPI is recklessly and tragically incorrect.  And furthermore the only number that was better than expected was the "core," which excludes food and energy. ROFLMAO.  How many of you spend at least 30-50% of your after-tax income on food and energy (gas, heating, a/c, electric)?  Most Americans do. 

So toss these b.s. economic reports out the window and start looking at what is really going on around you.  The total level of Americans actually working as % of the population is in continuous decline - the Govt just changes the definition of what constitutes the "labor force."  The number of Americans dependent on food stamps increases every month.  Those "robust" auto sales for March?  Check again and please note that they were a product of the auto manufacturers "stuffing" dealer inventories.  Search zerohedge for that report if you need to see the proof for yourself.  Dealer inventories are at record levels, but auto manufacturers book a sale once a vehicle is shipped to a dealer.  Oh and the auto maker happily finances that sale with your money (at least GM and Chrysler use your money).  And I don't even need to mention the fact that the housing market is absolutely falling off a cliff plus prices are tanking again.

Speaking of housing, Bank of America, one of the BIGGEST homebuyer financiers on the planet, is now saying that homeowners should not look at their home as an asset.  What the hell?  I'm not making this up, see for yourself:  LINK  That truly blows my mind.  Don't forget that for the past decade, mortgage finance has been the largest part of BAC's revenues, income and bonus pools.  ROFLMAO.  This is an absolute tragic farce.  The number ONE sales pitch used in a housing transaction is that "a house is a great investment!"  Bankers all over the country got rich on this battle cry.  Now we find out that it was one big lie?  I'll give BAC CEO Brian Moynihan the "asshole criminal of the year" award for the one.

Please take time to read or reread "Atlas Shrugged."  The movie opens tonight and I'm going to see it.  The media that has reviewed it so far, is panning it.  That does not surprise me.  The Denver Post didn't even review it.  The review I saw was posted on the online Denver Post.  I'm sure the media, heavily controlled by the Corporate/Government Big Brothership, has been told to dampen its reception of the movie.  Why?  Because the subject matter as presented by Ayn Rand is exactly what is going down in our country right now.  That plus a heavy does of George Orwell.

Before you go get your "Atlas Shrugged" tickets, please read this:  Brazil, Russia, India and China, collectively known as "the BRICs," understand what Rand/Orwell understood and they understand what is happening right now in this country.  And thus, THIS is why they are systematically and methodically getting the hell OUT of the U.S. dollar.  Please read this for reference:  Arrivedercie Dollaro!


  1. Re: Atlas Shrugged movie...

    Just like 'Inside Job'. Almost nobody saw it until it hit the pirate networks or the DVD was released.

  2. Great catch on the BAC line about homes, that takes the cake. Have a good weekend. It will be Steel Keg smoking time when I get back from vacation!

  3. Smoking anything else? Where you going on vaca?

  4. Jim Bianco ( says the Fed can't hike rates
    4/15/2011 1:16 PM EDT
    Jim Bianco is out with a piece arguing that the Fed can't hike rates, or perhaps more accurately, has to hike to 1% before it matters. This stems from the arbitrage that exists where banks can borrow in Fed Funds (around 0.13%)and deposit the proceeds at the Fed and earn 0.25% IOR. Right now this trade is problematic because the FDIC charges a fee on this type of bank borrowing, making the arb unprofitable.

    His argument is that if you hike to 0.50%, the arb is still unprofitable, and therefore short-term interest rates won't rise. Thus no impact. If you hike 0.75% to get out of the FDIC's fee range, the market will over-react, thinking this is a huge hike.

    I'm not sure why this is such a problem. If the Fed hikes 0.25% at the outset, the market will price in additional hikes. So maybe over-night LIBOR doesn't rise, but the fact that additional hikes are coming will cause 3 and 6-month LIBOR (which is much more commonly used in lending) to rise quickly.

    The Fed can and will hike.

  5. The interest rate hike issue isn't about arb'ing or helping infuse cash into the banks, it's about what a higher interest rate will do to the cost-structure of the U.S. Govt and to the housing market. Even 1/4% will hammmer both.

    I would argue that the Fed will do a gratuitous 1/4% hike to send a head-fake signal to the world that it's serious about it's monetary policy. But, in fact, the Fed can only be serious about keeping the banks AND the U.S. Govt solvent, in that order. The Fed can hike rates and continue printing. They are independent events - ask China lol. It's fait accompli.