Friday, January 22, 2010

A VIew From the Trenches: Is the Dollar Going to Roll Over Here?

This week's action has been a pure paper-driven cartel smack. The gold lease rates creeping higher are testament to the supply squeeze, especially the one in Asia (Shanghai premiums are an unheard of $10+ over spot, Viet Nam $30+).  If the big physical buyers start to look for big supply below $1100 and it's not there, we could see a moon-launch in the next few weeks. China doesn't want paper, nor does India, Viet Nam, Russia, etc. Also, I'm not going to go out on a limb and call a dollar top here, but the momentum indicators are starting to roll over and there's some decent resistance at the 78.70 level/200 (simple)dma, which is where the dollar ripped in reverse yesterday. Our spineless leader's empty tirade against Wall Street yesterday may do nothing more than stimulate even more "diversification" away from the greenback.

Furthermore, we now know that the intent of our Government is to spend its way into AT LEAST a $2.2 trillion deficit this year, which is reflected by the year-end debt limit ceiling raise by $300 billion PLUS the additional $1.9 trillion debt ceiling raise being superficially debated in Congress.  That's the minimum spending deficit this year, as States will need billions in loans and Unemployment Benefits will no doubt be extended.  To be sure, Government payroll (of which Extended Unemployment Insurance beneficiaries are a part) may be the only source of Democratic votes in November. Anyone who looks at that picture and thinks the dollar can go higher from here is taking too many hits from the bong.

One more point:  I'm horrified by the lack of public outrage over the Supreme Court decision yesterday upholding the right of big business to spend as much as they want getting their people elected to Congress/the Presidency.  That pretty much seals the transition of our way of Government from democracy to fascism:
“Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of state and corporate power” - Benito Mussolini


  1. Hi Dave,
    I'm from Canada so the context is a little different but I love reading your stuff and the discussions. Much of it is still pertinent here in many ways. I read something from Jon Nadler:
    "If, perhaps, the [US] populace should exhibit the same degree of anger towards its Supreme Court which just sold its electorate down the river yesterday, then such changes can come about. If yesterday’s decision to allow corporate billions to make their way into the US political process goes unnoticed and/or unchallenged..."
    What is that about??? Maybe things are getting even worse to the south of us than we even believe up here?

  2. Thanks for the feedback Canada. re: things worse in the U.S. than Canada. Canada has a golden age ahead of it fi the leaders manage properly. There's a reason China and Russia have announced programs to sell dollars and buy the Cando.

    As for yesterday's decision, I literally wanted to throw up. Bush rigged the Court to enable big business and the defense industry to take over the Government. Yesterday's decision confirmed that view and any chance of reversing the ongoing transition to a fascist (Govt by and for big business) system is now gone.

  3. ouch!!!
    I agree about our situation up here-- we made a good start 10+ years ago when we started running government surpluses and paying down our debts. We just have to reign the deficits in again quickly and start putting our valuable loonie to work buying technology.Our banking rules up here are strict so we have not had the same kind of housing fallout and the banks are in good shape.
    It's still tight-- a lot of people who used to have good jobs in auto and parts manufacture are working at 7-11 or getting government cheques. Our resource sector has been saving our bacon-- have to hope the Chinese applying the brakes doesn't throw a monkey wrench into things.
    Funny, when I was a kid the US Presidents didn't like our socialist leaders. In the present world I find that sooooo ironic!
    It's hard as an outsider looking in to get a real feel but I think if I lived South of the border I'd be one angry camper right now!

  4. A lot of people have left the country and that move may be in my longer term future as well. It's too cold in Canada for me LOL so I'm looking at central/south America.

  5. How about move to India Dave?

  6. Enjoy your blog, and may I respectfully disagree?

    The Supreme Court decision means, imho, that any and all can now spend money and express their view, without fear of tripping up over the arcane McCain-Feingold Act, which was an unconstitutional limiting of speech.

    Especially at Congressional and State level, small businesses can make their case that the expansion of the state is killing them off, if they will take advantage of the opportunity.

    Newspaper, TV, and radio ad rates are low these days. It won't take big bucks to communicate locally, which is where the debate really needs to occur.

    This just may be not such a bad thing.

    Again, great work. Keep it up. You have a fan here.

  7. OldSouth: thanks for the feedback - I really appreciate it. You can voice your disagreement anytime. I have the comment monitor on because about 6 weeks ago a couple of assholes decided to be juveniles and kept posting peoplesearch information on here of every family in Colorado w/my last name. I got some phone calls from a couple of them and they weren't enthusiastic, to say the least LOL.

    I agree with in principle about the 1st Amendment issue here, and I agree that it should not be obstructed. However, I also don't think the framers envisioned a world in which Congressmen would end up as "lifers" and that campaigns would involve spending millions to win. Unfortunately, that's where we are now and I do believe the Constitution has implied within it the idea of a "level playing field." The way campaings operate now, there is not a level playing field and the State's rights argument went down the toilet years ago. When you consider that a Congressman is now allowed to keep any campaign money not spent when he leaves office, that leave room for the very wealthy to exert undo influence vs. the common man. That's where we are now. I think limiting campaign spending levels out the playing field implied in the Constitution. Right now Congress doesn't work for you and me, it works for anyone with enough money to buy votes. That's just the reality of the situation.

    If we REALLY want to restore textbook "pluralism" and democracy, we'll implement strict term limits, and limit the amount of money that can be spent on an election and that money comes from the public.

  8. @Anonymous: I really want to travel thru India and I know there's beautiful place there. But from a cultural standpoint, I like to be around "western" culture. I also want to be in a predominantly English-speaking region. Countries like Uruguay have a European flair that I think would be interesting and Panama is loaded with U.S./Anglo ex-pats. I buddy of mine was just there and I need to grill him about it.

  9. Keep up the good fight Dave... Boy do we need it these days!

  10. Yes, we need your work badly.And maybe you have some thoughts about us in Europe too. You know, here in EU (Germany)everywhere on the continent we have even less information and our MSN is a lot worse than yours! All my information I can extract come from Internet and American blogs like yours!
    Thanks a lot!

  11. At this point, CON-gress, the supreme court, the president or regulators, none of it matters.

    The viability of this country rests with the USD and with QE to infinity we are headed to hyperinflation and a worthless currency.

    What happens to a country that has enjoyed the best way of life in the world for the past several generations and suddenly it goes 3rd world? Massive social unrest and chaos will follow.

    Perhaps a move out of country is in order, but where as everybody uses unbacked paper currencies.

    Joe M.

  12. Joe: it's not just about currency systems, it's also political systems and our's is becoming more Orwellian, dictatorial and fascist by the day. My view is that ultimately China will force the issue on currencies by eventually rolling out some kind of hard-asset backed currency. Maybe a gold/silver combo or something.

    I think the key is to look for a country that is trying to foster a middle class and develop some kind of democracy - the exact opposite of what is happening here. The other key is to look for a safe-haven, which would be a place like Panama, Uruguay, Canada, Austria, etc.

  13. Fauvi, I actually think the Telegraph-UK, Der Spiegel and a few others actually reports more truthful news than any U.S. source. The blogosphere and for sure proliferated truthful news, facts and data. But Obama has already asked for a "kill-switch" on the internet here and I think, although it may be several years away, eventually this country will descend into extreme censorship.

    The wealth and power is definitely shifting from the West to the East. Probably a movement that can't be stopped at this point. I think Africa will be an interesting continent to watch over the next 20 years.

  14. Dave do u think the globalists will allow the euro to rollover?? Lets not kid ourselves here we know powerful players (Rothschilds, Rockerfellers, etc) really call the shots in this world. I don't know if u've seen jay-z's video, blue magic. But in it a shot of him showing off his euros is shown, this is usually a hint of what the "insiders" know is coming up. Plus the Russian president showed off a world currency about a year ago. So add all this up either this is a massive head fake or a prelude of things to come.

  15. Holy Crap! This is the most gold/silver bullish headline I have ever seen in my life:
    Paul Krugman for The FED

    Wow, just Wow.

  16. @Anonymous: I don't think China is a part of the anglo-globalists union and will oppose them. I don't know how the situation in Europe unfolds but I do know that Greece and Portugal combined are a smaller part of the EU than California's economy is as a part of the U.S. Its hilarious how the media and financial hypesters are deflecting from just how bad the situation is in the U.S. by make a huge issue of Europe. Anyway you add up the numbers, the U.S. is in far worse shape than Europe, or any other country for that matter.

    @gyc: I think Bernanke survives, barely. I think any Senator in trouble this November will vote against him and i think the whole thing reduces political confidence in Obama. i also think this will force bernanke to ramp up and accelerate QE2, to try and get things going before November destroys any political power Obama has

    interestingly, i just heard this today, Brown won the vote in Bawney Fwank's district. I'd love to see him forced to retire to his man-boy love nest in P-town.

  17. Dave,
    I could not believe that vote in that district either.

    Go Saints! Marques Colston will be one to watch today.